In the postwar era, the Democrats have had some truly wide-open nominating contests. But the Republican Party has no Jimmy Carter coming out of nowhere in the last 60 years, no McGovern insurgency taking over the party in one fell swoop. They don't even have the kind of Seven Dwarves nomination by attrition that gave us Michael Dukakis. Instead, Republican nominations are completely predictable. They always, always, always nominate… the guy whose Turn it is next. ... This principle of the Turn – a term I shall Capitalize to emphasize its Significance - both transcends and flows with the ideological shift of the GOP from northeastern moderates to the neo-Dixie theocrats who run the party today. The Turn line stretches back, with one arguable gap, to Tom Dewey. ... Top party leadership or genetic connections can also earn you a turn, but the only other way is to self-start and claim a place in line. To stake a claim, you challenge the holder of the Turn in the primaries. You're not contesting THIS nomination, you're shooting for the one four to eight years ahead.