... after several Senate Lines in which we listed the ten most competitive race alphabetically, this week's installment kicks off our attempt to rank them based on their likelihood of switching party control next November. ... 10. Iowa: Sen. Tom Harkin (D) presents something of an electoral conundrum. On one hand, he has held his Iowa Senate seat since 1984. On the other, his reelection percentages suggest vulnerability -- 54 percent in 2002, 52 percent in 1996, 54 percent in 1990. Unfortunately for Republicans, close doesn't count in politics, and they have yet to figure out the formula to beat Harkin. The national party seems committed to trying again in 2008. Rep. Tom Latham (R) is their preferred candidate, but Rep. Steve King (R) and former Rep. Jim Nussle, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2006, are also mentioned. We fully expect Republicans to find a serious candidate and for that candidate to make a strong race against Harkin. But beat the incumbent? That's another story.

Labels: Jim Nussle, Steve King, Tom Latham, Tom_Harkin