IowaPolitics.com BlogWatch

Has anyone else noticed that the Feb. 5 mega-primary is two days after the 2008 Super Bowl? Why does this matter? # Real People who do not live, sleep, eat and breathe politics will be distracted. Sunday nights are a great time to catch people at home, but in this case, the whole critical two-days-out evening is shot for campaigning and phone banking. Will some campaign, in crunch-time isolation from the real world, be dumb and call into San Diego when the Chargers are third and goal? # With the first de facto national primary, a Super Bowl ad might be a good buy -- or would it? The first rule they teach you when you campaign in Iowa is don't door-knock during the Hawkeye game, and a political ad could be seen as an unwanted intrusion.

Labels: caucus dates

So where are all these million of votes which might be cast prior to the Iowa caucus? As the saying goes, timing is everything. While votes may have not been counted in other states, there will have most definitely been votes cast prior to Iowa's current caucus date of Jan. 14. Voters in five of the Feb. 5 primary states -- California, Illinois, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and Utah - will be able to cast ballots well before Iowans begin lining up at their caucus locations through the advent of early and absentee voting. According to one Iowa political insider, all the Presidential campaigns are aware -- or at least should be aware -- of the absentee ballots that will be cast prior to the Iowa caucus. "This dynamic, however, is so new and untested," the source said, "no campaign is going to discuss its particular strategy in dealing with it." California, in particular, poses a unique opportunity to presidential hopefuls. As of November 2006, the state had nearly 4 million voters signed up to be permanent absentee voters. That is, nearly 4 million California voters will have an absentee ballot automatically placed in the mail to them on Jan. 7, 2008.

Labels: caucus dates

... Mitt was also on rhetorical target tonight, the best performance I've witnessed live from him. Mitt's stage and room presence are increasingly impressive. The two strong Romney performances show that more than his poll numbers have felt a bounce in the last week. Tonight he made two themes very central, I thought. The first was the need to apply more of the results driven principles of business management to government to produce the changes necessary for the very different world we now occupy. This position is persuasive because it recognizes the fundamental changes in the world and our imploding society and it contains a solution to at least the governmental part of the fix. The second argument is American exceptionalism-without using the words. Mitt consistently returns to the theme that America is truly an exceptional place, that our problems are just that, problems, not crises, and that every problem can be overcome with ingenuity and effort. Romney was sharp in his answers, although, in all fairness, the questions somehow didn't seem all that surprising to him.

Labels: Mitt_Romney

If they have a confessional at the Iowa Department of Revenue, this would be a good time to remodel it. Nobody will be using it for the next 13 weeks or so. Governor Culver has signed the tax amnesty bill, SF 580. The bill forgives penalties and 1/2 of the interest during the amnesty period, which runs from September 4 thorugh October 31 of this year. The Governor's website touts this as a "one-time" amnesty. Yes, one time, just like the last one in 1986. The Tax Policy Blog has a post on the policy implications of tax amnesties: "What we wrote in 1985 holds true today: if lawmakers decide to implement tax amnesty programs, they should be accompanied by fundamental tax reform that makes the tax code simpler and easier to comply with." Iowa has gone in the opposite direction, adding more loopholes targeted tax incentives to its tax law while doing nothing to lower rates or broaden the tax base.

Labels: Chet_Culver, taxes

... This is today's national centerpiece - "biggest event since the announcement" says one staffer. ... Discusses Decorah small business owners who got hit with cancer. Now facing bankruptcy and spending 40% of income on health insurance. He's sticking close to prepared text. Calls the uninsured "a hidden tax." Talk of administrative costs, outdated technology. ... This feels very very different from the other times I've seen Obama. The relaxed feel was there in the introductory remarks, but this is all business, no casual asides. "Every American has the right to affordable health care" is the first applause line. ... Allow "temporary Bush tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans to expire" gets applause. He saves the more memorable description of info technology for himself: "moving from a 20th century health care industry based on pen and paper to a 21st century industry based on the latest technology."

Labels: Barack_Obama

Barack Obama delivered his snake oil health scare plan to the University of Iowa Hospitals yesterday. It was long on baloney but short on specific details. ... You know, I hope that some day the United States will have a "universal, single payer" health care system. The "universal" should be cash money backed with a catastrophic insurance policy and the "single payer" is you. The days where employers are paying 70% to 90% of an employee's $10,000+ health insurance plan will eventually end. So will the idea that insurance should cover every little thing under the sun or that "co-pays" should be small amounts. ... We need to be getting back to the days where a family can buy a cheap catastrophic coverage plan, but fund regular ongoing expenses out of a Health Savings Account (HSA). Insurance was made to protect people from excessive financial liabilities, but it has been abused by individuals, health care providers, and the government.

Labels: Barack_Obama

... If you're hoping for "universal, single-payer" healthcare (as I lean toward) -- as is provided to the citizens of virtually every other industrialized nation -- this ain't it. But until we get meaningful public financing of campaigns, I'm not sure that's in the cards from this "best Congress that money can buy." So maybe this is a much better plan in its details than the "universal, single-payer" critics give it credit for. Maybe it's the most that a pragmatic, politically savvy healthcare policy wonk can honestly and realistically put forward. Those who oppose any changes in the healthcare system will oppose this plan, just as they would oppose any other. But those who have a major economic stake in the present system, have disproportionate political power in shaping future changes, and are aware that some changes are simply going to have to come, may well get on board, figuring that this is the least-worst of the possible scenarios.

Labels: Barack_Obama

... In Iowa, the Des Moines Register's political guru, David Yepsen, is one of those prolific writers that candidates can't afford to offend. He has been covering the Iowa caucuses for more than a quarter century, and so, as one writer points out, candidates joke about going to Iowa to "pay homage at Mount Yepsen." Today, we got a chance to chip away at him during a LIVE CHAT at Rocky Talk Live with Mark Wolf. ... * Is there room for former Vice President Al Gore in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination? Yepsen says: "No." ... * Who's winning the war of words between former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain? It's Romney, Yepsen says.

... Northey comes to the office at a time when Iowa agriculture has intersected with the national debate on energy policy. He sees significant potential for growth in proven renewable fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel, as well as growth in new technologies like cellulosic ethanol. "There's probably been as much attention on agriculture in our legislative session, and from non-ag folks, as what there's been at almost any time for decades," said Northey. "Certainly there was a lot of discussion across the street on ag activities, around renewable fuels, around livestock, around DDGs, around being able to get the full advantage of this opportunity we have right now." The fact that Northey is a Republican serving with a Democratic-led Legislature and a Democratic governor has not caused any real divisions involving agriculture policy. "It's a great time to be secretary of agriculture," said Northey.

Labels: Bill_Northey

... He stayed on the same theme as Elizabeth and said it is not enough to say we support the troops. America must policies that truly support. He then layed out four things he would do to support our troops. First, when our soldiers return he would assess their needs, so we can help them transition back into civilian life. Second, we should have dedicated funding for the VA, so they have the health care they need. Third, we must support the families and narrow the gap in civilian pay and military pay. Finally, we must make sure our soldiers get educational support, job training, and help them with student loans if they need it.

Labels: John_Edwards

Several people had questions. Perhaps the two most important were inter-related. When asked to discuss the larger War on Terror, Gov. Huckabee began by stating perhaps the crucial, if far too infrequently expressed, fundamental nature of the WoT-it is very much theological in nature. The enemy, amorphous though they are, unify around a more 9th or 10th Century version of Islam with a 9th or 10th Century ethic. In recognizing our enemy has a religious belief that they should kill us to re-establish the Caliphate then we cannot negotiate with them like a rational actor. The Governor certainly appeared to have hardened his line with respect to the WoT and he certainly described a need for a larger and more powerful military. Music to my ears, of course. Gov. Huckabee also talked about a national energy policy with a goal of complete independence from Middle Eastern oil within 10 years. His analogy to the moon challenge seems utterly apropos.

Labels: Mike_Huckabee

... Vilsack talked a good game when he was running for president. I liked what he said about a lot of issues, including Iraq. The joke in my circle of friends was that Vilsack was sounding a lot better as a presidential candidate than he had as governor. I settled on Edwards as a candidate, but a few progressives I know, including my husband, were considering Vilsack. ... If his friendship with the Clintons and ambition for the VP slot or a cabinet post are that important, then he shouldn't have wasted other people's time and money on his presidential bid. Everyone has known for a long time that Hillary was running for president. Vilsack just wasn't serious about taking her on, and it makes all of his presidential campaign rhetoric--especially on Iraq--look empty. Reminds me of why I voted for Mark McCormick in the 1998 gubernatorial primary.

Labels: Tom_Vilsack

The 2007 legislative session, the first with Democratic control and a Democratic governor in 42 years, completed several major changes in election law. In the state's courthouses, 99 county auditors are looking at those changes and figuring out how to address them. Same-Day Registration: In the single-biggest change, Iowa joins neighbors Wisconsin and Minnesota in allowing Election Day voter registration. Same-day registration passed a Democratic-controlled Legislature in the 1980s, but was vetoed by the Republican governor at the time, Terry Branstad. Gov. Chet Culver signed House File 653 on April 4. Under Iowa's new system, voters registering after the old deadline (10 days for primary and general elections, 11 days for other elections) would have to show identification and proof of their address such as utility bills or leases. Democrat Jamie Fitzgerald is the new Polk County auditor. After serving as first deputy for 4 1/2 years, Fitzgerald took office in January when his predecessor, Mike Mauro, became secretary of state. "There have been numerous studies throughout the United States to ascertain why so few of our citizens participate in our election process," Fitzgerald said. "An often-cited factor for this dilemma includes making the voter registration and voting process seamless. Minnesota has had same-day registration for 30 years and has enjoyed higher participation rates amongst their citizens."

Labels: Legislature

In anticipation of releasing a public policy position. Needless to say, every one of us in Republican leadership here in Iowa is very aware of the firestorm that has exploded in the wake of the immigration semi-agreement. I won't speak for anyone else, or disclose anyone's position; suffice it to say that we have heard the public complaints, complaints that are shared by many of us. The level of complaint gives this issue the ability to divide our party. While our state leadership can't do much about the larger conflict, we can preserve and protect our state party's unity. One thing we can do is make the positions held by the Iowa Congressional delegation clear to our voters. It is my understanding that Senator Grassley, Congressman Latham and, of course, Congressman King are all opposed to the immigration compromise in anything like its current form. I'm sure they will let me know if I have inadvertently misrepresented their position. Not surprisingly I am involved in these discussions. This is one issue where I will probably "vote my conscience" but I do want to hear from you, our Republican voters, particularly our local leaders, like county officers, Federation leadership and elected officials. So, tune in, turn on and speak your mind.

Labels: immigration

So Leonard Boswell voted for the Iraq War supplemental funding bill today, just like we all knew he would. Sad as that is, it's not why I felt compelled to write this post. Pretty much every vote Boswell has ever cast related to Iraq has been the wrong vote, in my opinion. What prompted this post was a press release from the Center for Food Safety, which came to my attention this evening. Leonard Boswell apparently inserted language into the 2007 Farm Bill that would preempt any state prohibitions against any foods or agricultural goods that have been approved by USDA. That would include genetically modified foods. The press release does not name Boswell as the author of the language in question, but advocates have learned that he was behind the move. How disappointing that as the chairman of the House Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry (a subcommittee of the House Ag Committee), Boswell is using his influence to weaken consumer protection. Does he think the Farm Bureau will reward him for this? They're always going to endorse his opponent, no matter how much he delivers for big agribusiness in the Farm Bill. As a resident of Iowa's 3rd district, I have long felt that we could do a lot better than Leonard Boswell. He is often not with us on environmental policy, energy policy, tax policy, or foreign policy. Even so, this move disappoints me.

Labels: Leonard_Boswell

Tonight, I attended an Iowa Christian Alliance dinner event in Orange City tonight and I was very impressed. This certainly isn't the first ICA event I've ever attended, but I was very pleased by the quality of the event and the organization. A major kudos to new ICA organizer Jessica Anderson, a veteran of the Brian Kennedy and Tom Latham campaigns, for recruiting a really good crowd and for a very smooth order of operations. It was a very professional event. Bob Vander Plaats was the emcee of the event and as always, he really is a truly inspiring man. Please Bob, run for something soon again. Eight candidate representatives (in some cases, MANY from each campaign) were there representing Mitt Romney, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and Sam Brownback. Nobody from Ron Paul, Jim Gilmore, John Cox, or anybody else. Certainly no Democrats to be found anywhere. Their featured guest this evening was Dr. Laurence White, a pastor from Houston, TX. He truly did give a fire and brimstone speech about the importance of voting and behaving like a Christian. A very talented speaker who truly does have an ability to command an audience. Overall, a nice crowd and a nice event.

Labels: Bob Vander Plaats

The buzz of the moment is the Hillary Clinton strategy memo, leaked and quickly denied with much love for corn and pigs offered, arguing for a Screw Iowa strategy. Ohhh, this is no accident. This isn't a sign of lack of discipline or intra-campaign strife. This is a deliberate, strategic move. ... By publicly considering the Screw Iowa strategy, she in effect does devalue Iowa, and gets to have it both ways. She dramatically reduces expectations by making the case for Screw Iowa and acknowledging weakness. But by not openly dissing Iowa (as Gore `88, McCain `00, and Lieberman/Clark '04 did) she keeps a hand in the game and avoids offending Iowa supporters (most prominently the Vilsacks).

Labels: Hillary_Clinton

To: Interested Parties; From: A. Voter; Re: An alternative candidate strategy ... I think this old system, which has served a successful winnowing process for many years, is about to collapse because of the impact of primary elections that are being held on Feb. 5. Proposal: I believe we need a new approach to interaction with the Democratic candidates. This approach involves shifting the focus away from big money and toward in-depth issues which can be discussed in smaller groups. More specifically, I propose skipping any candidate event where an individual cannot have at least 60 seconds of one-on-one time with a candidate and dedicating more of our time and human resources on candidates who both understand and respect the importance of allowing the American people to have more than a 15-second video clip or sound byte. ... After assessing this proposal against the best interest of our nation, my recommendation is to avoid candidates who pull completely out of Iowa; who spend money only in our nation's largest states; and who avoid one-on-one interaction with voters of all walks of life.

Labels: Hillary_Clinton

Yesterday an internal Hillary Clinton memo was leaked to the press suggesting that she skip the Iowa caucuses to focus on other primaries. Shortly after that revelation, the Clinton campaign strongly refuted the memo and said they were committed to winning Iowa. "It's not the opinion of the campaign, Mrs. Clinton told Radio Iowa on Wednesday, referring to the memorandum. It's not my opinion." That's not political, face saving spin...that's the truth. When a Clinton says something, you can bank on it. Honest and intergrity are the back bone of a Clinton. It's about trust people. Clinton's aren't the type to simply tell people what they want to hear. They don't read opinion polls and change their beliefs just to pander to some hick voters. Hell no.

Labels: Hillary_Clinton

... Here's my solution: Let's go back to fuel ration cards like they had in WW II. That will put an artificial clamp on the demand, and lower prices, right? Back then, to get a ration book and a certain classification, one had to appear before the local ration board and plea their case. ... Half of our oil supply comes from an area that is openly hostile to us, maybe more than half if you include Hugo Chavez and Venezuela. We are at war, or so we're told by those in DC. If our oil supplies fell into the wrong hands, we'd be in real trouble. Rationing is one answer to reduce over-consumption and leaving ourselves vulnerable to dictators. ... Of course, I'm being a bit facetious here. Nobody in their right mind is going to propose, much less ratify, petroleum rationing until the straits are dire. ... However, if push came to shove, and we were headed to $10/gal gasoline, I think fuel rationing might become a viable option and worthy of discussion.

Labels: gas_prices

This new poll at Strategic Vision shows Mitt Romney leading in Iowa with 20%. Everyone who reads this site knows I'm very skeptical when it comes to polls, but I have said, time and time again, that when you get a bunch of polls showing you the same thing, then you can start to plot a trend. I think we've established the trend. The question is, though, what is his real margin? We've seen a poll with him at 30%, one showing him at 19%, and now this one showing him at 20%. Real Clear Politics has Romney leading Iowa at 21.3% (that's his average across several polls). But Giuliani still leads across the nation, with an average of 27.4% across seven different polls. So clearly, Romney leading in Iowa isn't helping him in other places. I have to admit, and I've said so in a couple of other posts, that I have been leaning slightly towards Romney*. He's been explaining his "flip-flops" mostly to my satisfaction, and that will go a long way for most conservative voters. Whether or not it will be enough, I'm not sure.

Labels: Mitt_Romney, polling, Rudy_Giuliani

Ever since Tom Vilsack dropped out of the presidential race, I have thought there was a big opening in Iowa for Bill Richardson, the only governor and the only candidate with extensive legislative, executive and diplomatic experience. ... He's been moving up in the Iowa polls, reaching 10 percent in the latest Iowa poll commissioned by the Des Moines Register. ... Playing up his diplomatic background is not surprising, but I find it interesting that Richardson is not afraid to highlight the fact that he has negotiated with dictators. His first tv ad, the biographical one, included a still photo of himself with Saddam Hussein. His ad about Iraq, in which he stands in front of a wall, alludes to the tough diplomatic work that will begin once we get our troops out of Iraq. In his "job interview" ad, the interviewer mentions Richardson's experience negotiating with dictators.

Labels: Bill_Richardson, polling

... The Des Moines CBS affiliate's poll of 600 likely voters found that 46 percent approve of how Iowa Gov. Chet Culver is doing his job. Another 32 percent disapproved and 22 percent were undecided. The Democratic governor's backers shrugged off the relatively low approval rating, arguing that the poll was designed to survey likely caucus-goers and was not an accurate snapshot of Iowans in general. The poll's marquee feature was the latest standings in the presidential horserace. ... If there are Iowans out there who voted for the big lug and are now unhappy with those accomplishments, they weren't paying very close attention. Maybe some folks are unhappy about things he didn't mention much on the campaign trail. He pushed for politically radioactive pro-union "fair share" legislation, although lawmakers eventually shelved it. His party, which controls the Legislature, approved a budget that increases state spending by 9 percent even while experts warn of economic storm clouds in the distance.

Labels: Chet_Culver, polling

Rumors are flying that Iowa Falls native Bruce Rastetter may run against Tom Harkin in '08. Rastetter is CEO of Hawkeye Renewables and has the money to personally finance a top-notch campaign. He also has an acute knowledge of Iowa's new goldmine, ethanol & renewable fuels. While Rastetter would be a great conservative candidate, I don't think he will run. He has been around GOP politics long enough to know the uphill battle of running against Harkin, but more than that, he is the CEO of a fairly new company that is really just getting started in the ethanol movement. While Rastetter has not formally said he will not run, I'm interested to know who you think should be the GOP candidate against Harkin in '08? ... The fact that Rastetter's name has come to such prominence should tell us something about the type of candidate the GOP should run against Harkin. We need a candidate that doesn't fit the traditional mold of a current office holder running for a higher office.

Labels: Bruce_Rastetter, Tom_Harkin, U.S. Senate

Rumors are now circulating hot and heavy here in the Capitol City that Des Moines businessman and former VanderPlaats campaign manager Troy Cook is contemplating a run for the U.S Senate seat now held by Bahama Tommy Harkin. Troy certainly showed his ability to maximize the benefit of minimal resources in the 2002 gubernatorial primary. Troy would be a very articulate and aggressive young candidate if he were to run.

Labels: Tom_Harkin, Troy_Cook

[Regarding] N. William Hines, "Law Doesn't Support Charges," Iowa City Press-Citizen, May 14, 2007, p. 11A ("Before the open meetings law zealots storm the university with torches and pitchforks, they and the media that hypes their concerns would do well to real carefully the Iowa law they so righteously champion . . ..") ... Bill Hines is a distinguished legal scholar and teacher, one of the longest serving law school deans in American history, and one who was selected by his colleagues as President of the American Association of Law Schools. ... In short, his analysis of the Iowa Open Meetings Law is somewhere between persuasive and entitled to great respect. ... I agree with his unstated assertion -- as Professor Arthur Bonfield and I have argued elsewhere -- that the Legislature needs to revisit many of the provisions of the Iowa Open Meetings Law, including those affecting this search. Where I respectfully disagree -- as I have repeatedly argued in these blog entries -- is that the language of the act can only be interpreted in the way he suggests. I analyze it differently. I believe that Search Committee II is covered by its terms. All of them.

Labels: Board of Regents

The "rock star" comparison might not be fair to Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois. After all, even the world's greatest band would be envious of some of the giant crowds he has been facing out on the stump. ... Obama's campaign has set the bar pretty high. And sometimes he's being judged not only on his own merits, but by whatever excitement that surrounds him on any given night. Take one recent speech at an almost academic setting in Johnston, Iowa, where he toned down his presentation and got fewer interruptions of wild cheers and applause. In effect, it's like reading an opera script, seeing Seinfeld without the laugh track, or watching a NASCAR race with the sound on mute and no announcers hollering "Boogity-boogity-boogity!" over the roar of the engines.

Labels: Barack_Obama

Visits from two former presidents and one fictitious one, and a little creative self-promotion, have turned an old fashioned diner on Iowa City's north side into one of the ritual stops on the caucus campaign trail. And this year the Hamburg Inn's Coffee Bean Caucus -- where diners vote for their favorite candidate by dropping coffee beans into labeled jars -- has expanded onto the Internet. ... it was in 2003 that the Hamburg Inn really cemented its reputation as a must-stop for caucus candidates. That March, former President Bill Clinton visited while in Iowa City for a University lecture. The Clinton table is two booths down from the Reagan table. The other presidential candidate named Clinton has not yet visited. ... While the first Coffee Bean Caucus was a publicity smash, its track record as a predictor is 0 for 1 -- Dean won the beans but John Kerry carried Johnson County and the state on caucus night. So far this year, both Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain have mentioned their Hamburg Inn visits in their local speeches.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Bill_Clinton, John_Kerry, John_McCain

The Des Moines Register has a new poll out showing Mitt Romney with a double-digit lead over McCain and Giuliani. Romney has 30%, McCain has 18%, and Rudy has 17%. The recent Zogby poll, I must point out, shows the race a lot closer. Which goes back to what I always say: take every poll you look at with a grain of salt. ... On a side note, take a look (on both polls) at Ron Paul. Notice anything? Yeah, he's not even registering. Even Kucinich, the biggest nutjob on the left in the race, is posting some numbers, so that really says a lot about how much real support Ron Paul has in the real world. ... The only people that are paying attention to Ron Paul are the people on the left…which Sullivan clearly is these days. They think he's the REAL face of conservatism in America when he's not even close. He's nothing but a parody, and a rather bad one at that, of what the left thinks conservatives are and what they believe.

Labels: Dennis_Kucinich, John_McCain, Mitt_Romney, Ron Paul, Rudy_Giuliani

... John Edwards continues to lead in Iowa, Obama and Clinton are basically tied for 2nd. The big news is Bill Richardson's jump to 10% in the poll. Richardson has been running TV ads for awhile now and they are playing well. I hope this Richardson motivation to make a greater effort in Iowa. The people I talk to are interested in Richardson, but want more information on on him. Chris Dodd is not catching on, which is a shame. He has taken some strong progressive positions, including supporting the Feingold-Reid bill last week. He is getting out polled by Kucinich and Gravel who haven't even campaigned here.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Bill_Richardson, Chris_Dodd, Dennis_Kucinich, Hillary_Clinton, John_Edwards, Mike_Gravel

When I was chair of the Iowa Democratic Party (back in the day), one of the questions I heard most often in the months leading up to the 2004 Iowa Caucuses was, "Why don't Iowa Democrats do a straw poll like Iowa Republicans do?" ... There's a simple, clear cut answer to why the Iowa Democratic Party doesn't do a straw poll and doesn't allow county parties to do them either: it's against the Democratic National Committee rules. That's because it would give Iowa two bites at the apple -- a pre-contest in addition to the one that counts in January . . . or December as the case may be). ... Don't get me wrong -- I'm a junkie for almost any kind of poll. I remember watching with fascination on C-Span the phenomenon that was George W. Bush at the 1999 straw poll (at that event, the Bush campaign blew through its self-imposed spending cap of $750,000 to buy even more $25 tickets to hand out). And I must admit I admire with envy the gobs and gobs of money the Iowa Republican Party is able to raise through the event. I'm not naive about the importance of money in presidential campaigns -- it's a valid measure of a candidate's strength and without enough of it, a campaign is doomed. Still, though, a contest of who can buy the most votes in a straw poll doesn't seem like a very rational way to determine the serious contenders, which is what the Iowa Republican straw poll will do.

Labels: GOP_straw_poll, IDP, RPI

Former Iowa Congressman Jim Leach says the potential for war with Iran is not getting the attention it merits. In a phone interview Thursday, Leach said: "The largely unfollowed issue is whether there will be another war with Iran, and what is the role of Congress. The likelihood is there will not be a pre-emptive strike, but whether the possibility that there will be one is 5% or 45% ... those are not trivial." ... Leach declined comment on mention of his name for the World Bank presidency; we spoke just minutes before current head Paul Wolfowitz announced his resignation. Leach was also mentioned for the job while he was still in Congress at the time Wolfowitz was appointed. He seems happy with his new career: "My wife and I have enjoyed being in an academic community. We prefer living there rather than in a political community."

Labels: Jim_Leach

Daschle began by saying America's prestige around the world is very low ... He noted our foreign policy is at a real crossroads -- we have unmatched power, but at a time of unprecedented interdependence. This creates huge challenges, which Daschle believes must be met in five ways: (1) Power of Example -- the U.S. must be the beacon of hope and democracy for the world (2) Regain the World's Trust -- The U.S. "doesn't always have to be loved, but should always be trusted." (3) Embracing Alliances -- recognizing the importance of allies. "After all, we need to isolate the extremists, not ourselves." (4) Confronting Shared Threats -- after the Iraq disaster, we must improve our intelligence capabilities, among other things. (5) Flexibility over Ideology ... The most dramatic moment of the talk, by far, came when Daschle addressed whether the war in Iraq was the "right or wrong call. Let me say emphatically and clearly -- it was the wrong call." As such, Daschle called for immediate redeployment. This would include sending some troops from Iraq to Afghanistan, to protect the fledgling democracy there and "finish the job." But by early 2008, Daschle was adamant, the U.S. should have just a residual force in Iraq.

Labels: Tom_Daschle

It's difficult to know the exact number of personal contacts that translate into vested interest and, eventually, into caucus goers. At least one Presidential campaign, however, is betting more is always better. Presidential hopeful and U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd will address a group at Drake University in Des Moines tomorrow on ending the War in Iraq. Throughout the state, however, individuals at satellite stations will use technology to interact with him in real time. "What we are doing tomorrow is special, but that doesn't mean it will be unique," said Matthew Browner-Hamlin, recently hired as the campaign's official blogger and key member of the online communications staff. "We plan on putting together this type of interactive event as often as possible as the campaign moves forward." The campaign has set up five community satellite locations. Conference calls will connect participants located in Sioux City, Charles City, Decatur and Burlington with the Drake event. Participants in Iowa City will be connected via a live internet feed. The internet connection, made possible through the beta Internet application UStream, has roughly a one second delay.

Labels: Chris_Dodd

Since I've been spending some time back here on the homestead taking care of the farm while my parents are busy traveling, I've been obviously answering their phone. Tonight, their phone rang to the voice of Governor Romney inviting them to participate in a live Tele-Townhall meeting. So I did. I must say, this was perhaps one of the coolest political ideas that I have seen come down the pipe in a long time. From one telephone, Romney can speak directly to literally thousands (and yes, there were thousands of people in on the call) of Iowans all across the state, who can stay in the comfort of their own home. They didn't have to get dressed up (I was in an old t-shirt and jeans from doing my farm chores) or use up expensive gas to go hear him. And, they could hang up at any point and end their participation in the event, if they chose to do so. He took maybe 10 or 15 questions (atleast while I listened) and after every 3 or 4, would ask people on the line to press #1 on the phone if they were interested in supporting him/attending the straw poll in Ames on August 11.

Labels: Mitt_Romney

Joe Biden came to see us this morning. By us, I mean the Cedar Rapids Gazette. He spent an hour and 10 minutes giving very long answers to very short questions from the editor, the vice president/general manager, the political writer, and the newsside columnist, who also has a role in the paper's editorial department. Oh, and there was me, the dilettante. "My only shot is you guys grilling me and making conclusions if I should be hanging around," Biden said, "because it sure won't be the money." Meaning, the Democrat U.S. Senator from Delaware who is running for president isn't playing in the Clinton-Obama league when it comes to fundraising. So he, like most of the presidential candidates seeking to attract as much possible attention in Iowa, Biden pays visits to local television and newspaper people in Iowa when the opportunities arise. The most obvious benefit: He'll get a story and a photograph in tomorrow's Gazette, and the same on Gazetteonline.com and its Iowacaucus.com site. In turn, the newspaper can say it hosted Biden, asked him direct questions on the public's behalf, looked him in the eye.

Labels: Joe_Biden

So, the newest member of the Republican House Caucus has published her first "post-flip" column on the website of the Des Moines Register. In it she says: 'All of my columns are written like a letter to my mother, because I want her to know what I'm doing and to be proud of me. And I want you to be proud of me too.' So, in her constant search for approval she has decided to participate in fundraisers with the same Republican leadership that did this: Iowa Democrats are decrying Republican campaign tactics after two state lawmakers were falsely accused of voting for a bill to aid illegal immigrants - before the two legislators ever took office. A flyer mailed to voters attacking Democratic Reps. Bob Kressig of Cedar Falls and Dawn Pettengill of Mount Auburn said they supported a bill that would allow illegal immigrants to be eligible for in-state tuition. But the vote was taken in the Iowa House in 2004, months before Kressig and Pettengill were elected. House Minority Leader Pat Murphy of Dubuque said the attacks by Republicans have gone beyond negative campaigning to "outright lying." "Iowans should be upset at that. Republicans have set a new low by breaking the public trust," Murphy said.

Labels: Dawn Pettengill

The Miami Herald has a must-read for any Iowan worrying about leapfrogging caucus dates. Reading between the lines, it seems that Florida's move to January 29 was driven by the GOP legislature and governor, and the Democrats are left trying to choose from a series of bad options: Hold a post-Feb. 5 caucus, in which activists around the state would gather to pick their favorite candidate. Top winners would split the full slate of convention delegates. Any Iowan who's ever been to a March county convention after the nomination is clinched knows the downside of this one. You're watching the ball game on tape delay, but someone already told you the final score. Beg the national party to bend the rule that only four states -- New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada -- can vote before Feb. 5. That's like expecting Officer Obie to thank us for being so brave and honest on the telephone, which wasn't very likely and we didn't expect it. Michigan, long an enemy of Iowa's pole position, will pounce on anything that violates the IA-NV-NH-SC-Everyone Else dance that was so delicately negotiated last summer.

Labels: caucus dates

While spiraling gas prices have created an outcry, the proper place for the frustration isn't clear. Siouxlanders have seen the price of unleaded climb from $2.00 in early February to $3.20 per gallon today, and some say they'll cut back on driving. To date, that's apparently not discernibly happening nationally. And it shouldn't, according to Northwest Iowa Congressman Steve King, which puts him at odds with President Bush, who earlier this week called for conservation. As the gas price spikes in recent years have occurred, Republican King has held firm in his conviction that it's a form of surrender to conserve. I've been wondering since Friday, when prices went over $3.00 in Sioux City, when we'd hear from King on the recent spike, and it came today with an op-ed piece. King says America is "held hostage to high gas prices by the environmental lobby that prevents us from producing more of our own energy," and for cutting off domestic drilling of known oil supplies. King said "we need more oil and natural gas production, right here within our borders from our own vast reserves."

Labels: Steve_King

Way back before Tom Harkin was elected to the Senate, Iowa had two Republican senators: Roger Jepsen and Chuck Grassley. We used to call them "Tweedle Dumb" and "Tweedle Dumber." For those of you too young to remember, Tweedle Dumb lost to Harkin despite the massive Reagan landslide of 1984. His campaign faltered when it became public knowledge that he had frequented "massage parlors." Why did it become public knowledge? Because Tweedle Dumb used his personal credit card to pay for the massage parlor services. But I digress. It's easy to forget Chuck Grassley was ever known as Tweedle Dumber, but I remembered when I saw this piece in the Des Moines Register: Grassley: Ethanol plants should use coal. Responding to worries that the ethanol boom will drive up the price of natural gas used to power the ethanol plants, Grassley had a brilliant idea.

Labels: Charles_Grassley

The Miami Herald has a must-read for any Iowan worrying about leapfrogging caucus dates. Reading between the lines, it seems that Florida's move to January 29 was driven by the GOP legislature and governor, and the Democrats are left trying to choose from a series of bad options: Hold a post-Feb. 5 caucus, in which activists around the state would gather to pick their favorite candidate. Top winners would split the full slate of convention delegates. Any Iowan who's ever been to a March county convention after the nomination is clinched knows the downside of this one. You're watching the ball game on tape delay, but someone already told you the final score. Beg the national party to bend the rule that only four states -- New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada -- can vote before Feb. 5. That's like expecting Officer Obie to thank us for being so brave and honest on the telephone, which wasn't very likely and we didn't expect it. Michigan, long an enemy of Iowa's pole position, will pounce on anything that violates the IA-NV-NH-SC-Everyone Else dance that was so delicately negotiated last summer.

Labels: caucus dates

While spiraling gas prices have created an outcry, the proper place for the frustration isn't clear. Siouxlanders have seen the price of unleaded climb from $2.00 in early February to $3.20 per gallon today, and some say they'll cut back on driving. To date, that's apparently not discernibly happening nationally. And it shouldn't, according to Northwest Iowa Congressman Steve King, which puts him at odds with President Bush, who earlier this week called for conservation. As the gas price spikes in recent years have occurred, Republican King has held firm in his conviction that it's a form of surrender to conserve. I've been wondering since Friday, when prices went over $3.00 in Sioux City, when we'd hear from King on the recent spike, and it came today with an op-ed piece. King says America is "held hostage to high gas prices by the environmental lobby that prevents us from producing more of our own en ergy," and for cutting off domestic drilling of known oil supplies. King said "we need more oil and natural gas production, right here within our borders from our own vast reserves."

Labels: Steve King

Way back before Tom Harkin was elected to the Senate, Iowa had two Republican senators: Roger Jepsen and Chuck Grassley. We used to call them "Tweedle Dumb" and "Tweedle Dumber." For those of you too young to remember, Tweedle Dumb lost to Harkin despite the massive Reagan landslide of 1984. His campaign faltered when it became public knowledge that he had frequented "massage parlors." Why did it become public knowledge? Because Tweedle Dumb used his personal credit card to pay for the massage parlor services. But I digress. It's easy to forget Chuck Grassley was ever known as Tweedle Dumber, but I remembered when I saw this piece in the Des Moines Register: Grassley: Ethanol plants should use coal. Responding to worries that the ethanol boom will drive up the price of natural gas used to power the ethanol plants, Grassley had a brilliant idea.

Labels: Charles Grassley

... Fox asked much harder questions and allowed the candidates to go at it. We, the Republican voters, are adults and we should demand far more of this and far less of the commercials, the stump speeches etc…. Nothing instructs like dialogue. It also makes the Democrats look like the intellectual cowards that they have become. ... we're going to rate each debater on a scale of 1-30.
Sam Brownback ... 1st debate/25 2nd debate/21;
Jim Gilmore ... 1st debate/24 2nd debate/21;
Rudy Giuliani ... 1st debate/21 2nd debate/27;
Mike Huckabee ... 1st debate/25 2nd debate/27;
Duncan Hunter ... 1st debate/23 2nd debate/24;
John McCain ... 1st debate/23 2nd debate/24;
Ron Paul ... 1st debate/21 2nd debate/20;
Mitt Romney ... 1st debate/25 2nd debate/24;
Tom Tancredo ... 1st debate/21 2nd debate/22;
Tommy Thompson ... 1st debate/21 2nd debate/21.

Labels: Duncan_Hunter, Jim_Gilmore, John_McCain, Mike_Huckabee, Mitt_Romney, Ron Paul, Rudy_Giuliani, Sam_Brownback, Tom_Tancredo, Tommy_Thompson

Tonights Republican debate was a lot better than the last one. The questions were better and the crowd was more involved. Here are some thoughts I jotted down during the debate...
* Everytime I see Mike Huckabee, I wonder why he isn't gaining any traction. His counter to Rudy on abortion was clear and a lot better than Brownback's simplistic attempt.
* I think Rudy Giuliani won because of him interjecting on Paul's comment, even though I think Paul had an important point.
* Tancredo did pretty well. His line about people should have conversions on the road to Damascus and not on the road to Des Moines got a loud ovation and was a clear shot at McCain, Rudy, and multiple choice Mitt.
* I think Gilmore, Brownback, Tommy Thompson, and Hunter should drop out. Hunter might have some credibility on immigration, but is overshadowed by Tancredo.

Labels: Duncan_Hunter, Jim_Gilmore, John_McCain, Mike_Huckabee, Mitt_Romney, Rudy_Giuliani, Sam_Brownback, Tom_Tancredo, Tommy_Thompson

Former U.S. Sen. Mike Gravel, D-Alaska, is running, at age 76 and after years out of the public arena, the longest of long-shot candidacies for the presidency. Gravel, now living in Virginia, served in the U.S. Senate from 1969 to 1981. ... Gravel conducted a one-on-one, 45 minute conversation with Iowa Independent fellow Douglas Burns. Iowa Independent: When I watched the debate the other night, and don't take this the wrong way, but you seem awfully angry for a 76-year-old. Why are you so angry? Sen. Gravel: I'm angry because every day you and I are talking about this thing people are dying. How would you feel if you were over there (Iraq) getting shot at, getting crippled, because your leaders didn't exercise proper judgment. What about the people who are going die between now and Christmas because we don't end the war? That's a reason to get angry. That's blood. That's people dying and we sit here complacently and say, "That's far away."

Labels: Mike_Gravel

... Here's the script for the first spot, a 30-second ad called "Civil": CHRIS DODD: Half measures won't stop this president from continuing our involvement in Iraq's civil war. That's why I'm fighting for the only responsible measure in Congress that would take away the President's blank check and set a timetable to bring our troops home. Unfortunately, my colleagues running for President have not joined me. ... OK, so I guess the kidding around is just about over for Dodd. I've been seeing stuff coming out from his campaign about calling the other candidates to find out where they stand on Feingold-Reid (or, as the campaign started referring to it, "Feingold-Reid-Dodd"), ... this is a pretty in your face move, and it looks like Dodd is swinging at everybody: Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Richardson, even Biden, who's no slouch when it comes to pushing the administration on ending the war. ... I think this is the right time for Dodd to make this kind of move: the fundraising process stories have receded, the top three candidates are playing so safe that they're in danger of atrophy, and Dodd has an opportunity to use these ads

Labels: Chris_Dodd

Sugar, ham, tons of cheese and cookies...not a bad week, huh? No wonder I felt like I was carrying around a small child during my runs this weekend. Ah, life on the road. How do these presidential candidates do it? I'm going to guess that's why I don't see these folks on the cover of my Men's Health every month ... Here's a lowdown on the candidate, city and food served... Hillary Clinton--Red Oak--pie; John McCain--Ft. Dodge--ham sandwich, chips, cookie; Tommy Thompson--Anamosa, then West Des Moines--pizza buffet, then just pizza; Barack Obama--Indianola--not a dang thing; John Cox--his West Des Moines campaign headquarters--Jay's Potato Chips; I wonder what I'll think the next time I hear one of these people talk about tackling the obesity problem?

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton, John_Cox, John_McCain, Tommy_Thompson

For at least this moment in time, television news in Iowa is a man's game. Overall, the employees who produce Iowa's televised newscasts are divided 58 percent male and 42 percent female. Of a total of 219 persons (news, weather and sports) throughout the state, 126 are male while 93 are female. Iowa Anchors: 30 percent women; 70 percent menOf the 219 total, there are 63 individuals serving as primaries or anchors throughout the state. When we look at these individuals the gender gap widens to 70 percent male and 30 percent female. The picture looks more balanced in the lower levels of the newsroom where 53 percent of workers are male and 47 percent are female.

On Tuesday, May 15th, New Jersey's LS Power plans to apply for their permits to build a 750MW coal-fired power plant just east of Waterloo, Iowa. This plant will pour out carbon dioxide equivalent to nearly a million new cars on Iowa's roads for its 40-50 year lifetime. We are in a desperate fight to reign in global warming and this plant will dig us a hole that all our best efforts can't remedy. The plant will also pollute eastern Iowa's waters with heavy metals, including hundreds of pounds of mercury annually, which settles into rivers and lakes and bioaccumulates in fish across a wide region. ... The Governor has a chance to put a delay on the permitting process but today is the best day for it. Call the Governor at 515-281-5211 and ask him to tackle global warming solutions and put a temporary stay on the permitting process for new coal plants until the legislature has had a chance to act on the Climate Change Advisory Council's recommendations for greenhouse gas reductions in Iowa.

Labels: global warming

Sen. Mike Gronstal and Rep. Kevin McCarthy were in Marshalltown this afternoon to speak about legislative accomplishments. ... Someone else asked about VOICE before I could get a chance to. ... Gronstal responded by saying that he is a fan of getting the influence of money out of politics, but the VOICE legislation had somethings in it that weren't the best. Gronstal talked about the study group created to look into the issue of clean elections. He then said that he will work with groups that are friendly, a clear shot at the incident at the State House with clean elections supporters. ... [McCarthy's issues with VOICE: ] First, the bill includes primaries. McCarthy said that if someone in his district is upset with one of his votes all they would have to do is get 100 people to donate $5 each and they would be eligible for tax payer money to run. Second, McCarthy said the VOICE legislation would make it illegal for House leaders to funnel money to other races. Right now the House leaders are able to raise unlimited amounts of money and then can dish that money out to candidates in targetted races.

Labels: campaign finance, elections, state House, state Senate

........... demonstrated what appears to [be] caucus strength in the most traditional of ways. ... Team Tommy generated a turn out of around 100 almost entirely new faces. Having attended several Tommy events it appears that he has a great ability to work a crowd, very dynamic (although uncharacteristically passive in the recent mockumentary on MSNBC) and very likeable. Tommy and Mike Huckabee continue to front run for the Dale Carnegie Cup. Reliable and unbiased sources travelling with Tommy confirmed pretty much the same result for his other recent Iowa events. Tommy certainly is working this state like his life depends on it. ... Tommy Thompson is rolling out a powerful ground game. More of a 2000 Rams flexible approach than the '72 Dolphins ground pounders but pretty darn good none the less. Twenty five percent could win the blue ribbon next January so the affable Badger is not all that long of a shot.

Labels: Tommy_Thompson

... It is impossible to celebrate our mothers or our lives as mothers without taking a moment to consider how that very important life role has helped to shape who we are and what we do. "My mother was hard working, had a great sense of humor, enjoyed life, always tried to fix what was wrong, and loved herself," said Iowa Rep. Helen Miller. ... "I see my legislative role much like that of a parent working to do her best for individuals and groups who may be needy, confident, pushy, sensitive, unreasonable, helpful, angry, and more. It helps to call upon memories, analogies and quotes from my child-rearing days -- those child-rearing days are not unlike my work now." ... fellow legislator Rep. Vicki Lensing agrees. "Becoming a mother is life-changing and the only training we have is what we know – from our own mothers and women in our lives that have taught, modeled and influenced us," she said. "It brings us skills, strengths and weaknesses. It releases within us feelings that we have never felt before in quite the same way as motherhood brings to us.

Labels: state House

Greg Sargent had a great catch today at his TPM political blog Horse's Mouth. He spotted an amazing article in the Journal-Eureka, based in Anamosa, Iowa (Jones County). I would link to the original article, but the newspaper's site appears to have crashed from all the attention Sargent's piece generated. Click through to read Sargent's account, but here is the short version: Deb VonSprecken, who farms with her husband, donated to Giuliani and got a call from his campaign asking if they would host an event for him at their farm. They were excited and started preparing the event. Then they were asked to call Giuliani's campaign office in New York, where someone asked about their assets. They own a small farm. Afterwards, Tony Delgado at Giuliani's Des Moines office allegedly told Deb VanSprecken, "I'm sorry, you aren't worth a million dollars and he is campaigning on the Death Tax right now."

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani