IowaPolitics.com BlogWatch

New poll numbers from the American Research Group reveal significant
improvement in former Gov. Mike Huckabee's standing in Iowa, bouncing
to 14% support after the Iowa Republican Straw Poll earlier this
month. ARG's polling indicated that Huckabee had the support of only
1% of Iowa Republican caucus-goers last month. While the ARG's likely
caucus-goer screen is notoriously loose, this is undoubtedly good news
for the Huckabee campaign. The poll puts Huckabee in third place in
Iowa, behind Romney at 27% and Giuliani at 17%. Huckabee beats Fred
Thompson (13%), Newt Gingrich (7%), and John McCain (5%). Notably for
Huckabee, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo
receive no discernible support in the ARG poll. Ron Paul, on the
other hand, receives 1% support in Iowa.

Labels: Mike_Huckabee

Today's ruling in favor of gay marriage, in the largest county in the
first (?) caucus state, could have a national ripple effect on the
presidential campaign. Will the hot-button issue move to the national
front burner again? On the Democratic side, only long shot candidate
Dennis Kucinich supports gay marriage. The other contenders support
civil unions. But the ruling may increase pressure on the front
runners to support true equality, and complicate the balancing act of
attracting progressives to win a nomination without alienating general
election swing voters. It would be interesting to see how a stance of
persuasive leadership, ahead of public opinion, would play coming from
a top tier candidate. Larry Craig's sad, self-hateful story is the
polar opposite of the committed, lifelong relationships of the six
Iowa couples who were plaintiffs in this case.

What a nice surprise in my own home town today! Polk County Judge
Robert Hanson overturned an Iowa law that bans same-sex marriage. This
after a week of listening to conservatives pontificate about morals,
this ruling couldn't have been issued at a more perfect time. Barring
an injunction, which has already been requested by the County Attorney
John Sarcone, the ruling will allow to apply for and be granted
marriage licenses in my home county. I have a deeply held personal
belief that all people have the right to marry the person they love.
It's not up to us who we feel attracted to and fall in love with.
There is plenty of evidence that heterosexual married people don't do
a great job of keeping marriage sacred, so that argument is not even
valid.

The war begins today. This afternoon, Polk County District Judge
Robert Hanson threw out Iowa's law banning same-sex marriages. The
ruling came in response to a lawsuit brought about by the radical gay
group, Lambda Legal. At the same time that a variety of moderates in
the party are urging us to back away from divisive social issues - the
other side is hard at work. Lambda's strategy was brilliant, find some
Norman Rockwell type gay couples, bring suit in their name and choose
a venue where you are likely to get a favorable ruling. Even if this
ruling is overturned on appeal, it is a huge victory for Lambda. What
could not be achieved through the legislative process was realized by
the actions of a single judge. The judicial usurpation of legislative
authority should be one of the biggest issues in the upcoming
election.

Rudy Giuliani is the first Republican candidate with an office in
Johnson County. The Democratic stronghold, indelibly dubbed "the
People's Republic of Johnson County" by David Yepsen, may seem like an
odd spot for Giuliani to open only his second office in the state. But
the move actually reflects a subtle understanding of the caucus
process. Unlike the Democratic caucuses, where delegates are
apportioned to counties and precincts by a complex formula based on
general election returns, the Republican caucuses simply count raw
votes. Though Johnson County is the most Democratic county in the
state by percentage, it's still number eight in the number of
registered Republicans, one notch ahead of GOP rotten borough Sioux
County.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

We're just now taking our first bites as a society into the new
phenomenon known as "Gotcha Politics". But is "Gotcha Politics" good
for American Democracy? What is this idea of "Gotcha Politics"? Well,
I think the person best suited to answer that question might be former
Virginia Senator George Allen, who was one of the first real victims
to the process. As technology develops and new Internet mediums are
launched, "Gotcha Politics", as I and others refer to it as, will
continue to grow. In an era where information moves almost as quickly
as sound and light, candidates and campaigns have to be ever cautious
about what they are producing, how they are appearing, and what they
are saying. If they screw up, they can expect nearly a million hits on
YouTube within a few hours, it seems.

Many good things came about as a result of the Lance Armstrong
Foundation's LiveStrong Presidential Cancer Forum in Iowa. Discussions
on cancer research funding and how government can play a role in
America's quality of life came to the forefront. Perhaps one of the
most important aspects of the forum for those who advocate for
reproductive health, however, was the injection of the human
papillomavirus vaccination into the national conversation. Genital HPV
infection is a sexually transmitted disease that is caused by human
papillomavirus, a group of viruses that includes more than 100
different strains. The disease is spread by genital contact. All types
of HPV can cause mild Pap test abnormalities which do not have serious
consequences. Roughly 10 out of the 30 identified genital HPV types
can lead to development of cervical cancer.

So much for the big scoop on Hillary Clinton laboring in Ames next
Monday. I posted yesterday how her campaign had asked the Ames City
Council to block off a portion of downtown so Clinton could hold an
event for approximately 1,000 people. The campaign today sent out an
early advisory that Clinton and her hubby will be going to Des Moines
(and Sioux City). No official word yet on why Des Moines and not Ames.
But an employee in the Ames City Clerk's office filled us in. She said
Hillary Clinton's campaign submitted its the original request last
Thursday. She said it was "a late request" for such an event involving
a road closure of Main Street. However, the city manager's
recommendation was to approve the request on the basis that it will
"create positive energy and promote downtown businesses".

Labels: Hillary_Clinton

By now anyone reading a political blog knows about the issues
troubling Idaho Republican Senator Larry Craig. Craig plead guilty to
disorderly conduct charges after being arrested June 11th in a men 's
room at the Minneapolis Airport. According to the Washington Post, an
undercover police officer investigating sexual activity arrested Craig
in the men's room. Apparently Craig signaled his interest in sexual
activity by touching the officer's foot and motioning with his hand
under the stall wall. Today, Craig claims that he did not seek counsel
before pleading guilty to the charges and that he is really innocent
and 'not gay'. I cannot imagine how a US Senator could possibly
believe that he could simply plead guilty and that no one would find
out about it. With 22 Republican and only 12 Democrat seats up for
re-election, this could not have happened at a worse time. More
stunning than the stupidity, is the hypocrisy. Craig has been known as
a family values guy.

What do all of these unfortunate republicans have in common? They were
each caught satisfying a private and unspeakable urge, for which they
were publicly vilified. All of them are so-called conservatives. But
the problem with people who tell you they are conservative is...they
have a total disconnect between their own lives and the lives that
other people lead. Conservatives truly believe they can legislate
morality, while living with complete impunity in their own personal
lives. Truth be told, the statistics reveal the truth. Just as many
conservatives as liberals get abortions. Same with spousal abuse. Same
with pedophilia. Same with divorce. Same with being gay. It doesn't
matter how many flags are flying in the background either. The problem
with conservatives is...when they fall, they fall hard. They've built
themselves a giant glass house, but they've landscaped with big ol'
throwin'-type rocks. They denounce entire groups of people, in public
and in private, yet, they deal with the same issues.

There's been speculation, but today all rumor has been put to rest.
International Association of Fire Fighters General President Harold
Schaitberger will announce tomorrow that the Fire Fighters Union has
endorsed Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd in his bid for the White House.
There is no over-playing the boon this is for the Dodd campaign, which
seems to be gaining traction in Iowa and New Hampshire. The
firefighters were instrumental in Sen. John Kerry's success in 2004
and there's no reason to suspect the well-respected men and women who
make up that union will not add a huge boost to the Dodd campaign in
terms of both community activism and respect. This news, when combined
with higher polling numbers for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and
added Iowa endorsements for Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, should give the
top three pause.

Labels: Chris_Dodd

The smart money is on January 3rd. David Yepsen covered most of the
bases in his column yesterday, but here are a couple more reasons… If
New Hampshire is on the 8th, then legally we can go no earlier than
the 31st of December. Fat chance. Since December is basically out of
the picture barring further excitement, the only possible dates are
the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th, and the earlier the better. The
2nd will be ruled out as too close to New Year's Day, although really
anyone who hasn't slept off their hangover from drinking 43 hours
before is probably not a likely caucus attendee anyway. The 3rd seems
like the sweet spot between giving people at least a little time to
think about politics again and giving the winners a measurable bump in
New Hampshire.

Labels: caucus dates

The inevitable statements from the presidential campaigns on U.S.
Attorney General Alberto Gonzales' resignation took a short time to
hit my inbox. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was the first out of the
gate. "The resignation of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales is long
overdue," Richardson said in a statement. "The President must nominate
an Attorney General who is a lawyer for the American people not a
political arm of the White House." Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del, was next:
"As I've said before, Attorney General Gonzales has lost the
confidence of the vast majority of the American people and the
Congress. His resignation is long overdue. When I voted against
Attorney General Gonzales' confirmation, I voiced concern about his
ability to go from being the President's lawyer to the people's
lawyer."

Labels: Bill_Richardson

With word this morning that embattled (no other adjective fits better)
Attorney General Alberto Gonzales has resigned, the reaction from
tri-state legislators is trickling in. The latest was the most concise
- Nebraska 1st District Congressman Jeff Fortenberry says, "I think
it's the right decision. (Gonzales') ability to govern has been
significantly diminished." So with Republican Fortenberry saying that,
it's not a case of all Republicans backing the Bush administration's
guy, there has been considerable erosion of support for Gonzales.
Another Republican, U.S. Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, said the
Democrats claimed a scalp after criticism of Gonzales, but Grassley
contended the attorney general had a good record in protecting
children by aggressively pursuing child predators. But Grassley
conceded, "Obviously, the last couple of years have been very tough
for him."

Labels: Charles Grassley

America, apple pie, fighting for the family. All in a day's work for
ex-Republican Senator Larry Craig (R-Idaho). Oh yeah, don't forget
that you can get anonymous sex in bathroom stalls all over the country
but tapping your foot in a bathroom stall. Unfortunately for Craig, he
was arrested for soliciting an undercover officer for sex and plead
guilty to a misdemeanor disorderly conduct charge. Senator Craig, who
was also a representative to the Senate for Mitt Romney's campaign,
resigned from that role. Romney's campaign "accepted his decision."
His voting record in the Senate, which includes support for a
constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriages, and support for
the Defense of Marriage Act, earned him a high rating from groups such
as American Family Association, Concerned Women for America and the
Family Research Council.

Labels: Mitt_Romney

Why would a national organization with national name recognition
choose to hold its first presidential forum in Iowa? "This forum is
clearly another example of why the Iowa caucuses are so important,"
Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Scott Brennan said following Monday's
event. "Not only do organizers understand that presidential candidates
are in our state, but it is a reflection on the fact that if the Iowa
people are supporting an event, the candidates know it is something
they should also be supporting." "Is there really any other place in
America where you could get 2,700 people, a former governor, the
current governor, at least one Iowa congressman and four Democratic
presidential candidates to come together on a Monday morning to talk
about cancer?" asked participant Ellen Jeffers. Gov. Chet Culver and
United States Rep. Dave Loebsack set out the importance of the event
and Iowa's role in raising the national conversation.

Labels: Chet_Culver, IDP

In a rare and unusual move, the Democratic National Committee has sanctioned the Florida Democratic Party. Florida tried to move its primary date up to January 29, thwarting previously approved plans of Nevada, South Carolina, Iowa and New Hampshire. ... This is a perfect example of how the DNC and RNC, strange bedfellows indeed, should band together to stop rogue states from trampling the carefully approved primary and caucus dates. Anything else would throw the entire system into complete chaos.

Plenty of volunteers have crappy experiences in campaign offices, because that's just how it goes. Once you agree to volunteer, campaigns don't put as much effort into making friends with you because they assume you have already drunk the Kool-Aid. Unfortunately, when there are few clear distinctions between candidates and a long, contentious primary, staff can't take volunteers' support for granted. Case in point, this Des Moines Register letter to the editor: "I came to Iowa as a die-hard Hillary Clinton supporter/volunteer, who was ready to help elect the first woman president of the United States... Within the first couple of days of arriving, I had seen three field workers cry because of the abuse they took..." I have trouble with the idea that the way campaign staff on the ground in Iowa treat volunteers has any bearing on how good a president a candidate will be; but, if Clinton staff is being driven to tears on a regular basis, there are going to be bigger problems for them to deal with.

Labels: Hillary_Clinton

With less than three weeks to go prior to the infamous and exciting Iowa State v. Iowa Cy-Hawk rivalry game to be played in Ames (Home of the Cyclones), the Iowa Federation of College Republicans is planning an impressive tailgate for all Republicans to attend, regardless of age. This will be the ONLY Republican oriented tailgate anywhere on the grounds of Iowa State University that day and so this will be the magnet for all Republicans. The Iowa House and Senate Democrats are having a tent and we don't want them to show us up, do we? I certainly hope not.

• Essential Estrogen: Low Expectations Make for a Happy Audience
• Open Country: Democratic debate w/George Stephanopolous
• Radio Iowa: ABC's Democratic debate
• iPol: Live Blogging From the Debate
• iPol: Running Transcript of Drake Debate

Still wonder if former Sen. Fred Thompson is really going to get into
the Republican presidential race? Well then how do you explain his
visit to the Iowa State Fair on Friday? Maybe you think he really
craves a deep fried Snickers bar. Or, could it be that he wants some
of that Butter Cow/Harry Potter magic to rub off on him? It's true.
All serious presidential candidates must go to the Iowa State Fair,
although not all people who go to the Iowa State Fair are running for
president -- just most of them. We'll see what happens on Friday
afternoon, when Thompson takes his turn on the Des Moines Register's
state fair "soap box" stage -- actually a ring of hay bales.

Labels: Fred Thompson

All I've been hearing from my counterpart over at Elephant Biz and
other conservative pundits is how Fred Thompson is the Great White
Hope of the republican nomination. Conservatives are settling for
"conservative lite" in fatally flawed Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney
(aka Mr. Flip-Flop). I listen to Sean Hannity for opposition research
every day, and I think he is in love with Fred Thompson. Literally.
Besides having a forehead as big as the back nine at Augusta, what
does Fred have to offer the American electorate? So far all I've heard
is a a lot of pretty rhetoric, but nothing substantial. He has no
compelling reason to run, other than the fact that he's the only
republican that has a chance to win over true conservatives. Even
though Fred has questionable credentials on the abortion issue as well.

Labels: Fred Thompson

Two stories about the Straw Poll's continuing impact are beginning to
float through the Ethernet tonight. The first is pretty obvious; Mike
Huckabee's second place finish has produced a lot of media this week.
The combination of good news and increased exposure has supposedly
significantly boosted the Razorback's fundraising. Since Huckabee got
more votes than the quantity of tickets he purchased you'd have to say
the event gave him a pretty big bang for the buck. The second is
somewhat murkier. Rumor has it that a second GOP participant at the
Ames Straw Poll is set to drop out in the next few days. We'll be
chasing this rumor down hard, if it's groundless we'll say so, if not
the fallout zone will broaden beyond Wisconsin.

Labels: Mike_Huckabee, straw_poll

Over at Century of the Common Iowan, Noneed4thneed put up a video clip
of David Brooks talking about how Republicans privately can't stand
Bush, think he's incompetent, blame him for destroying the party and
so on. I don't doubt that this is true. They were happy to puff up
Bush and smear his detractors when his approval ratings were high, but
now that he's been below 40 percent for almost two years, he is a
little embarrassing. Even the White House has given up on salvaging
Bush's presidency (at least that's how I interpret Karl Rove's
departure to work on other GOP projects). So far Republican
presidential candidates have mainly criticized the Bush administration
on immigration policy.

Labels: Mike_Huckabee

Speaking before roughly 500 union members and supporters in Cedar
Rapids today, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson said it is past time for
there to be "an American president who will finally be on the side of
the middle class." "The [Bush] administration has failed to protect
the engine of our economy -- the middle class," he said during the
30-minute speech. "Productivity is up, yet real wages are down.
American workers are holding up their end of the deal, but their
government is not." In discussing the current state of the United
State's fiscal health, Richardson chided Bush for "acting like a
spoiled teenager who crashes the family car and then hopes no one will
notice."

Labels: Bill_Richardson

And brother did he generate enthusiasm. A large crowd gathered around
Rudy from the moment he arrived at the main Grand Avenue gate. People
shouted out things like "There's Rudy Giuliani" from all angles as
Giuliani walked around the Fairgrounds for several hours. Rudy took
impromptu questions from the crowd at all of his stops. The Giuliani
leadership mystique was on full display in his typically well-reasoned
answers. One thing that differentiates Giuliani from almost every
other politician in America is his willingness to explain to people
why they should agree with him instead of why he agrees with them.
Giuliani has mastered the too rare practice of persuasive argument.
Rudy fielded the usual questions on Iraq and immigration with his
usual very hard lines.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

Mayor Rudy Giuliani took his turn today on the Des Moines Register's
"Soap Box" this afternoon and I was in attendance to witness this
spectacle. Rudy drew a sprawling crowd of people as he spoke for maybe
20 or 25 minutes. He started the speech by talking about his "12
Commitments" to the American people and decided to heavily concentrate
on one of his main points: keeping America in an offensive posture
against terrorism while at the same time arguing that being in a
defensive stature, as has been the case in the past, would be a recipe
for defeat. Then he opened it up to questions from the crowd. He said
that he wants people to evaluate him on his positions and record and
made it clear that if you didn't like what he had to say, then he'd
like for you for someone else.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

Iowa women make up one-third of a newly announced committee within the John Edwards for President campaign. "I am pleased to announce today
our campaign's Statewide Steering Committee," Edwards said in a
prepared statement. "They are a widely respected group of leaders from
law enforcement to labor to education. They include elected officials,
party activists, community leaders and others who share my commitment
to real change and are ready to go to work to make it happen." The
list, touted by the campaign as reflecting the "diversity and depth"
of their organizational support in Iowa, contains the names of 74
Democratic party officials and activists -- 24 of them women. Looking
down the list, however, newly aligned supporters are a rarity. That
being said, the Edwards campaign is hardly the first to recycle
supporter names from previous announcements, endorsements and
committee formations.

Labels: John_Edwards

The John Edwards campaign announced today their statewide leadership
committee that includes some current State Legislators. Many of these
are news to me. Keith Kreiman, State Senator, Bloomfield, Davis
County. Geri Huser, State Representative, Des Moines, Polk County. Wes
Whitead, State Representative, Sioux City, Woodbury County. Kurt
Swaim, State Representative, Bloomfield, Davis County. Ro Foege, State
Representative, Mount Vernon, Linn County. Art Staed, State
Representative, Cedar Rapids, Linn County. Andrew Wenthe, State
Representative, Hawkeye, Fayette County.

Labels: John_Edwards

Now that the Ames Straw Poll has come and gone Rudy Giuliana and Fred
Thompson are ratcheting up their presence in Iowa. Rudy has an ad buy
in Iowa. I have started hearing radio spots for Rudy Giuliani. He is
pushing his 12 Commitments. Andrew Dorr, Fred Thompson's political
director, sent me an e-mail about Fred Thompson's upcoming visit to
the Hawkeye State. Now that the Straw poll is over, they feel that it
is safe to come to Iowa again.

Labels: Fred Thompson, Rudy_Giuliani

Governor Tommy Thompson made it very clear from the very beginning of
his bid to become the 44th President of the United States: It's Iowa
or bust. But even though Tommy's 6th place showing at the Ames Straw
Poll on Saturday ended his aspirations, I don't think there is anyone,
who seriously followed this campaign, that could call Tommy's effort
anything short of incredible. I had the honor and privilege of meeting
Governor and Secretary Tommy Thompson more than any other candidate in
the race. He even called me on my phone one day to chat and at another
time, I rode with him in his suburban from Ames to Des Moines just so
he'd have another opportunity to chat with me.

Labels: Tommy_Thompson

Now that Strawpollpalooza is over, the three no-shows -- Rudy
Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain -- are coming to Iowa this
week. Trying to pick up those legions of Tommy Thompson supporters, no
doubt. Speaking of the late candidate, Political Insider makes the
Preposterous Claim Of The Day: If George W. Bush had declined to run
(in 2000), or had not defeated Ann Richards in 1994, Tommy Thompson
might be president today. Quotes T.T. as saying "I should have run in
'96, and I should have run in 2000." Still, there's a point. No guts,
no glory, and the brass ring only revolves around every four years.
Joe Biden and Chris Dodd must be having similar regrets about 1992.
Back in that early 1991 decision window, coming off Gulf War I, Bush
the Elder was looking invincible.

Labels: Tommy_Thompson

Two presidential candidates stopped by our Cast Your Kernel booth at
the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines. Their visits had far different
feels. As far as I know, John McCain flew into town just for the fair.
And it was a quick visit. He walked around a bit, checked out the
State Republican Party booth, came to our booth and then stopped by
the Des Moines Register's booth. I think that was it. McCain really
watches how much time he spends in the sun. Perhaps, that's why his
words were so few when he took the stage at our booth. He talked for
one minute and 31 seconds. He made a joke about cutting pork after he
saw "Big Red", the big boar at the fair. Then he mentioned how he's
standing firm on supporting the efforts in Iraq. That was about it.
McCain usually is pretty generous with him time to the media. He sure
wasn't this time.

Labels: John_McCain

Former Sen. John Edwards threw down the gauntlet to reporters riding his campaign bus in central Iowa on Monday. He and his wife, Elizabeth Edwards, were talking about how they've learned to keep campaign speeches short here in the Hawkeye State, because in Iowa, the "real meat" of the meet-and-greet sessions comes in the question-and-answer periods. ... So the challenge was issued. Could the reporters come up with something original? We tried -- starting with a co-questioner who wanted to know if the senator had a habit of being late. (They had started the day more than an hour late that morning, but the senator and the inquiring mind disagreed about whether it was a regular thing.) Keep reading to see other attempts at asking something new.

Labels: John_Edwards

... In part, the ad is seeking not to introduce her to Iowans but to re-introduce her as the candidate who will focus on the ordinary Iowans and Americans as president. It is supposed to be the "more caring" side of Hillary, not the supposedly "politically calculating and manipulative" version that we've heard about in the press since about 1991. And in that endeavor, it succeeds. To me, the one place that it does fail is with the background music. I'm sorry, but it just seems cheesy and distracting. The content of the ad, what Clinton says, is the real substance and I think it is quite good for a re-introduction.

Labels: Hillary_Clinton

... Prof Bainbridge, what do you mean by "representative of the country as a whole"? Which state is representative of the country as a whole? I mean that as a serious question... I don't think that question can be answered without lots of people poking holes into whatever state you bring forth as an example (race, median age, educational makeup, commerce, population, number of metropolitan areas, topography, political affiliation, past history, et al) ... Now I'm not defending Iowa's first-in-the-nation status, I never have, but where do you think candidates would visit if California had the first primary? That's right, only the major metro areas. Do you think for a second that they would appear in some small town to meet with 30 or 40 locals and talk the issues? No, they wouldn't.

Labels: caucus dates

I'm seeing a lot of blogs that are trivializing the Straw Poll and the entire state of Iowa as a whole, and I just want to say one thing: stop it. I live here, you know. I love this state and everything it represents... It's a great state to raise a family in. It's because Iowa is like this that I have chosen to stay here and it's because Iowa is such a great state that I will likely grow old and die here. To be honest, I wouldn't want to live anywhere else... So you guys on the coasts who think Iowa doesn't matter, think again. If a candidate can't win here, if they can't get the support of traditionally conservative voters (not Republican, mind you, but conservatives), then they aren't going to win anywhere else in the midwest. And I needn't remind you that Republicans, in order to win the White House, NEED the midwest.

I've long agreed with Kos that Mike Huckabee is the guy in the Republican field I'd least like to see us face in the general. ... Particularly against Hillary, I think Huckabee spells trouble for us. That said, I am not sure whether Huckabee's surprisingly strong showing in the Iowa GOP straw poll is good or bad for Democrats. ... What interests me most about Huckabee's showing is that he did it despite attack ads that the Club for Growth has been running against him on Iowa television stations. ... Huckabee says it's unacceptable for CEOs to make 500 times the salary of their workers and get huge bonuses while they drive their companies into bankruptcy. He talks about coming from a working class family and how he remembers his dad struggling. I mean, does he sound like he's channeling John Edwards, or what? No wonder the Club for Growth hates this guy. ... when I think about Huckabee making the top tier, getting more mainstream media coverage while portraying the GOP as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wall Street and big business, I smile. Having a Republican reinforce this stereotype will reach many voters who would tune out a Democrat making similar allegations.

Labels: Mike_Huckabee

While Thompson did not have as large of a campaign presence in Iowa as some of the better-known and better-financed candidates, he did have both staff and supporters who now find themselves without a political home. Looking at staffers, recent Iowa State University graduate Alyssa Staley was the person to first hold a paid campaign position for Thompson in Iowa. She first served as chairwoman for his campaign at ISU and then as a field organizer. Also serving as field organizers were former president of the Iowa Federation of Republican Women Gwen Ecklund, current ISU College Republicans executive director Jordan Navara, Jeanita McNulty, Marlys Grant and Tom Erb. ... If there was one area where the Thompson campaign had organized well it was on college and university campuses. ... at the time of this writing, no staff or supporters had made announcement of their intent to move to another candidate, experienced staff and well-known supporters rarely remain unattached for long.

Labels: Tommy_Thompson

It appears that Huckabee had the lowest cost per vote at the Straw Poll yesterday, at around $58/vote, according to this article. His nearest competitor, Sam Brownback, spent almost three times that amount to get his votes. And, Romney eclipsed all of them at over $440/vote, maybe more, as his team has not released the amount they spent at the event. ... The article claims that Romney probably had the greatest cost per vote. I would disagree and say that John Cox has that position. I don't know what Cox spent, but lets say it was around $50K, possibly more (I don't know what it cost a candidate for just the space). He got 41 votes. That's $1219 per vote. Ouch!

Labels: Mike_Huckabee

Given the advantage he had in organization and finance, Mitt Romney's first place finish at Ames was anything but impressive. That his organization (and bankroll) would render the straw poll non-competitive has been obvious for many months ... Huckabee- not Romney- is the big winner at Ames. From here on out, he has to be taken seriously, just like Romney and Giuliani and McCain and Thompson are taken seriously. Those four- plus Mike Huckabee- constitute the viable field for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. In fact, that Romney- with all his organization and all his money- was not able to dominate the poll more completely- that Huckabee's showing, rather than Romney's, should be the story- raises some serious questions. ... it'll be hard for the Romney crowd to argue that yesterday's result demonstrates anything resembling a decisive preference on the part of Iowa Republicans for their man.

Labels: Mike_Huckabee, Mitt_Romney

Prologue: Tonight's Ron Paul Rally in Cedar Rapids, Iowa will be live
blogged from the belly of the Crowne Plaza Hotel. The event is a
prelude to the Ames Straw Poll fundraiser on Saturday, where the Ron
Paul Revolution plans to storm the gates of Hilton Coliseum and
catapult their candidate into the top tier. Ron Paul supporters,
wielding signs, aligned both sides of the street as I pulled into the
city of Five Seasons. About 30-40 supporters hollered quotes such as,
"We're not just the Internet." Passersby honked for Paul as they
parted 7th Avenue. The place is slowly filling up, not to mention
there are two uniformed policemen stationed at the exits, which I have
yet to see at a Republican presidential event. Ah yes, throw
Revolution in the mix and the peace officers are bound to show up.
This should be interesting indeed.

Labels: Ron Paul

Throwing one wrench into a bunch of gears usually complicates the
machinery that's trying to work. The South Carolina GOP officially
just threw in about one hundred wrenches into a bunch of gears that
make up the national primary and caucus calendar. I wrote a bit about
the planned announcement yesterday on Bleeding Heartland, even
re-posting a potential calendar that Chris Bowers saw as likely.
However, the Associated Press is reporting that contrary to Bowers'
speculation, Iowa will be forced to move the caucuses to mid-December
and not to Jan. 4th. "South Carolina had scheduled its Republican
primary for Feb. 2, but at a news conference with New Hampshire
Secretary of State Bill Gardner, Dawson said the change to Jan. 19 was
needed to protect South Carolina's first-primary-in-the-South
tradition. Given the change, Gardner will be forced by state law to
move the New Hampshire primary to at least Jan. 12. Iowa then probably
would move up its traditional leadoff caucuses, perhaps to as early as
mid-December."

Labels: caucus dates

Congressman Duncan Hunter's campaign dialed up my phone tonight for
yet another tele-conference call with Iowans. Being the political
junkie I am, I obviously took the opportunity to listen in to it for
awhile. Like the last one that his campaign hosted a week or so ago, I
didn't get a chance to listen to all of it. Though, what I did listen
to was fantastic. Duncan was on the phone the whole time with Phyllis
Schlafly, the prominent conservative icon associated with Eagle Forum.
I entered into the call with Duncan, not surprisingly, talking about
border security. Along with Tancredo, this is a very important issue
for Congressman Hunter and he uses it well. He noted that there are
Democratic Governors in neighboring states (he cited Richardson in New
Mexico and Napoliatano in Arizona) that claim that whatever size fence
you build, you'll just find a whole lot of one foot longer ladders.

Labels: Duncan_Hunter

There was a new poll released yesterday by the University of Iowa. The
poll is interesting to take a look at because it breaks down caucus
goers based on how likely they will attend the caucuses. However, the
most shocking finding in the poll comes from the question about
presidential preference that included candidates from both parties...
'Obama actually finished third as the preferred general election
candidate of registered Republicans, at 6.7 percent, behind Romney
(21.8 percent), and Giuliani (10 percent), but ahead of Thompson (5.2
percent) and McCain (1.8 percent).' Another interesting thing to note
is that the results among the least likely caucus goers in Iowa are
pretty similar to the national poll numbers. From Open Left... 'I am
struck by how similar the "least likely" caucus goers in Iowa seem to
break along roughly the same lines as national polls.'

Labels: Barack_Obama

South Carolina is asserting its apparent "right" to be the first
presidential primary in the South. The state's decision will have a
domino affect on Iowa and New Hampshire. Iowa's state law stipulates
that Iowa must have the first caucus in the nation, requiring that
date to be set at least eight days before any other state's contest.
New Hampshire has a similar law, stating its contest must take place
at least one week before any other presidential primary. South
Carolina's decision pushes New Hampshire back, and therefore creates
the unlikely scenario of a New Year's Eve caucus in Iowa. Iowa state
party leaders would most likely push the date back to December 17th.
This is almost an untenable situation for the Iowa campaign staff.
Everyone knows how hard it is to get people to focus on anything
besides Christmas preparation in those last two weeks before December
25. Imagine throwing a caucus into the mix. Oy, I feel sorry for those
young staffers.

Labels: caucus dates

Labels: caucus dates

With the moving up of major parties' primaries, politics have been
brutal this summer. As Joe Biden (who probably shouldn't make jokes
about Tulane being underwater) said on the Daily Show last night in
reference to Senator Obama's turn in fortune, "It's rough out there."
And it is coming within the Dem party and from the right wingers who
say things like "Edward's whored his wife's cancer for a fund raising
gimmick". Over on the right, similar gesticulations are happening
(right, John McCain?). The politics of dismantling are brutal, but
doesn't the average voter see through the strategy? To dismantle
Obama, the strategy is to minimize his foreign policy experience; to
dismantle Edwards; go after his money (via his haircut); to dismantle
Clinton, go after her war votes and on and on.

Labels: Joe_Biden

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has reason for some optimism going
into this weekend's symbolic Iowa straw poll. The latest Iowa
Republican poll shows him tied with Sen. John McCain for fourth place
in the Iowa polls -- behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney,
former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Tennessee Sen.
Fred Thompson. But he knows the history of the symbolic straw poll.
It's a make-or-break moment for all the candidates. Right? Here's what
he told us in Boone, Iowa, on Wednesday: "You know, for us it's all
part of the long haul. I mean, I think a lot of people are saying this
is sort of the seminal moment, period. It's not for us, although we
think it's a pivotal moment not a seminal moment if that makes any
sense." What?

Labels: Mike_Huckabee

The Manchester Union-Leader is reporting that the South Carolina
Republican chair will announce his state's GOP primary date on
Thursday -- at the New Hampshire state capitol. Observers including
the New Hampshire Republican chair expect the date to be Jan. 22 - the
currently scheduled New Hampshire date. Talking Points Memo calls the
New Hampshire-based announcement "a sign of chivalry to New
Hampshire's first-primary tradition." In South Carolina, the parties
set their own primary dates. South Carolina Democrats are still
scheduled for Jan. 29, and according to a Democratic Party agreement
are supposed to have that date to themselves as the fourth contest.
But the GOP-controlled Florida legislature moved that state's primary
to Jan. 29.

Labels: caucus dates

A quick glance around the periphery of this web page reveals that both
Bawb and I are pulling for Dr. Ron Paul to get the Republican
nomination for president. Let me elaborate why I'll be voting for him
at the Republican straw poll in Ames Saturday. My reason is this: I
believe Ron Paul will lead the party back to a position supporting
smaller, Constitutionally limited government. This is vitally
important because America currently does not have a viable political
party that advocates such. The Tenth Amendment is dead. The Second
Amendment is on life-support. First Amendment free speech rights, the
Fourth Amendment right against unreasonable searches and seizures, and
Fifth Amendment property rights are increasingly under assault from
various government entities. Spending has skyrocketed, borrowing
against the economic freedom of our heirs.

Labels: Ron Paul

Tonight, I attended Representative Dwayne Alons' fundraiser in
downtown Hull. Rep. Alons and his wife Clarice are two of the nicest
and most dedicated people you will ever meet. I was pleased to attend
this event. They had upwards of 100 people there and so it was a very
good event for him. I got to spend a good quantity of time talking to
two fellow bloggers: Mike Tate with Tancredo and Vincent Harris with
Huckabee. Both of these guys are in college (Tate goes to school in
Pennsylvania and Harris in Texas) and they are both playing HUGE roles
in the campaigns of these two fantastic campaigns. I'm definitely a
fan of their work. As I have mentioned many times, the 'new media' is
the wave of the future and these guys, both about 20 or 21, are way
ahead of 99.999 percent of everyone else with their knowledge of this
and how it applies to political campaigns.

Labels: Duncan_Hunter, John_Cox, Mike_Huckabee, Tom_Tancredo

Norma McCorvey, known to most as "Jane Roe" in the landmark medical
privacy case Roe v. Wade, will show her support for Kansas Sen. Sam
Brownback during the Ames Straw Poll on Saturday. "Sam Brownback is
the right person, in the right place at the right time for our nation
as we seek to embrace a culture of life," she said in a prepared
statement. "I call on pro-life Iowans to voter for Senator Brownback
in Ames this Saturday. Our nation needs a president with strength,
courage and moral fortitude -- one who will lead our society on a path
that respects human life and dignity." In 1970, McCorvey was the
plaintiff in a case challenging a Texas law prohibiting abortion. At
that time, she had claimed her pregnancy was the result of gang rape,
a statement she has since declared a lie.

Labels: Sam_Brownback

What did Chester know and when did he know it? We certainly know who Chester owed and when he owed it and the scientific community is united in that fact. --State settles TouchPlay lawsuit for $1.6 million-- Iowa will pay the settlement to the largest operator of the TouchPlay companies to sue the state. ... It seems like yesterday that Jim Nussle warned... "...There's a secret plan out there to either reinstate TouchPlay or for that matter, for a secret settlement." ... Krause's $25,000 investment in the Culver campaign earned him $1,671,370.50 and now he can sell off his machines.

About a month ago, I heard Ron Paul's campaign staff pledge that they would get 10,000 of their supporters to the Ames Straw Poll during their alternative event next to the ICA/ITR Republican Candidates Forum, from which Paul was excluded. Then it was revealed — on Paul's own official Straw Poll site — that Paul was only able to buy 500 tickets ($17,500 worth) to give away. The other 9,500 supporters will theoretically have to buy their own tickets — or will they? I suppose they could take Mitt Romney's free ride and barbecue and then vote for Paul, but could 9,500 of them really squeeze by Mitt's crowd-wranglers? And, more aptly, where are those 9,500 Ron Paul-supporting Iowans going to come from?

The Ron Paul campaign is combating the usual strategy of winning the Iowa Straw Poll this coming weekend in Ames, Iowa. ... The Paul campaign is twisting that around a little... they are asking people who live outside of Iowa to "adopt an Iowan" and pay for their ticket so they may attend the event. The Iowa Straw Poll is essentially just a fundraiser for the Iowa GOP, financed by republican campaigns desperate to win the first big presidential pissing match of the year.

Somebody who feels compelled to publicly announce they've found Jesus and made Him his personal savior makes me really nervous, especially if that somebody is a politician running for office. (e.g. George W. Bush) ... Tancredo may want to revisit (or visit assuming he hasn't read it) the "Old Testament" before joining a book club with Jesus. ... A spiritual source with Political Fallout did manage to intercept a memo sent from Jesus to Tancredo under the newly adopted FISA guidelines -- which permits the government to intercept messages from any entities outside the United States (i.e. Heaven) that are deemed a threat to American Imperialism and the spread of Democracy. ... "Dear Tom, While watching the GOP debate on the day set aside for praising my father and only my father, it came to my attention that you had found Me and made Me your personal savior. Although flattered, I don't recall making this pact and after combing through my files, I found no record of you finding Me."