We've had ten days to decompress from the election. It's time for a little self-promotion and self-criticism. What did you predict accurately during the past presidential campaign, and what did you get completely wrong? The ground rules for this thread are as follows: 1. This is about your own forecasting skills. Do not post a comment solely to mock someone else's idiocy. 2. You are not allowed to boast about something you got right without owning up to at least one thing you got wrong. I'll get the ball rolling. Here are some of the more significant things I got wrong during the presidential campaign that just ended. I thought that since John Edwards had been in the spotlight for years, the Republicans would probably not be able to spring an "October surprise" on us if he were the Democratic nominee. Oops. ... Here are a few things I got right: I consistently predicted that Hillary would finish no better than third in the Iowa caucuses. For that I was sometimes ridiculed in MyDD comment threads during the summer and fall of 2007. I knew right away that choosing Sarah Palin was McCain's gift to Democrats on his own birthday, because it undercut his best argument against Obama: lack of experience.

Labels: elections