IowaPolitics.com BlogWatch

He told us before, you know. Waaaay back in 2002, state senator Barack
Obama told us that Iraq was the wrong war and Afghanistan was the war
we needed to fight. No one imagined that seven years later, President
Obama would be in a position to turn that policy statement into
action. But that's what's going to be announced tonight, and despite
the years of advance notice, those of us on the left are feeling let
down. The 2008 general election turned on economic issues, but back in
2007, when no one but Longtime Party Activists In Iowa -- you know,
the kind of people reading this post -- was paying attention, it was
about the war. The peace movement was key to Obama's caucus win.
Hillary Clinton gave him the opening. Focused on general election
politics and presuming a slam-dunk primary win whenever she chose to
run for president, she chose to "look tough" in the fall of 2002 and
voted for Bush's Iraq war.

Labels: Barack_Obama

When Governor Culver and the Democrats made it illegal to smoke in public places, including bars and restaurants, small business owners went nuts over the fact that our government could step in and tell them how to run their business. In that case, they could sell cigarettes to their clientele, but they just couldn’t smoke them inside. If they were upset over that, I'd love to hear what they have to say about Obama's speech last night. In one breath, President Obama said that government wouldn’t take over the insurance industry, but in another breath he listed a slew of new mandates that would force them out of business. Obama said that he supports the following mandates on insurance companies: They cannot deny you coverage because of a pre-existing condition. They cannot drop your coverage for any reason. They can no long place a cap on the amount of coverage you can receive in a given year or a lifetime.

Labels: Barack_Obama, health_care

From the very beginning of the Obama caucus campaign continuing
through the general election, I gave more money, more time, and stuck
my neck out further than I ever had before for a Presidential
candidate, and I've worked hard for quite a few. I will not invest my
energy in a cause that has no bottom line, no goals which the
president will not compromise, nor any clear cut progress toward true
reform. I respect Barack Obama for the great things he HAS done, but I
refuse to work for his version of health care reform when he has no
clear goal other than to pass something - anything - that may get
through Congress, regardless of content.

Labels: Barack_Obama, health_care

At yesterday's town-hall meeting in New Hampshire, President Barack
Obama had nice things to say about Senator Chuck Grassley. ... Look at
how Grassley talks about health care reform and tell me whether Obama
should praise Grassley's efforts. Grassley told a crowd in Afton that
the U.S. has the best health care system in the world and that he
won't nationalize healthcare or "do anything that allows Washington
between a doctor and you." Grassley also claimed that Obama "is
pursuing a partisan bill." While in Winterset, Grassley promoted the
latest bogus Republican talking point about killing Granny. Yes, he
went there.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Charles_Grassley, health_care

Barack Obama fell just short of my personal goal of 70 percent in
Johnson County -- 69.91 to be exact. It rounds up, so I'll take it.
Obama broke the LBJ 1964 mark of 68.08 percent--but was it the best
presidential result ever in the People's Republic? The answer, I've
found, is a qualified yes. You can really only compare results back to
1920. For one thing, before that, only men were allowed to vote. For
another, those men weren't voting for president. Iowa listed the
individual electors on the ballot, and you had to cast a separate vote
on each elector. (Alabama did it that way as late as 1960.) Tickets
got split, intentionally or accidentally. Woodrow Wilson's 13
candidates for elector in 1916 won between 3,623 and 3,650 votes in
Johnson County.

Labels: Barack_Obama

If you're a radio talk show host that calls female basketball players "nappy headed hos," Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson will create enough public pressure to see to it that you lose your job. On the other hand, if you are a State Senator who is so passionate about socialized medicine, that you stomp right into the House chambers and tell a black legislator, "They are treating us like [n-words], like masters and slaves," you end up with a key White House appointment from America's first African-American president.

Labels: Barack_Obama, health_care

Joseph Phillips takes on the argument that the GOP needs to lean more
left in order to win votes. His point is well-taken, given that
Republican party identification is up... and this latest poll doesn't
indicate a large, leftward lurch by Americans. So how does the GOP win
its upcoming elections? I like to break things down simply: stop
running angry people for office. Or nerdy people. Or worse... angry,
nerdy people. Let me give you an example that will make some of my GOP
friends shudder: people LIKE Barack Obama. Look at the polling data.
Most Americans oppose President Obama's positions on multiple
issues -- but continue to like him personally. While that frustrates
many of my friends on the right, the point is clear: a candidate must
be an able messenger, first and foremost, in order to persuade voters
on the issues.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Iowa GOP

Only Nixon could go to China ... In Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered
Country, Mr. Spock quotes this old Vulcan proverb. This morning WHO
radio reports that former 2nd District Republican congressman, Jim
Leach may be the next United States Ambassador to China. Of course, on
this blog, I have referred to Jim Leach as a RINO and a traitor.
(Congressman Leach is the only person I have ever called a RINO on
these pages.) In that post, I also noted that I know Jim Leach
personally to be an honest man and a gentleman. So I find myself in
the strange position of applauding Obama's choice (or potential
choice) of Jim Leach for Ambassador to China.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Jim_Leach

President Barack Obama proposed reforms to the Congressional
earmarking process on Wednesday: Members' earmark requests should be
posted on their Web sites. There should be public hearings on earmark
requests "where members will have to justify their expense to the
taxpayer." Any earmark for a for-profit company would have to be
competitively bid. The reforms are intended to deflect criticism after
Obama signed the $410 billion 2009 omnibus spending bill, which
included about $7.7 billion in earmarks. I have no time for the
Republican Party's blatant hypocrisy on what is really a "phantom
problem." Republican members of Congress secure plenty of earmarks for
their own states even as they posture against "pork."

Labels: Barack_Obama, U.S. House

Still weighing the $787 billion stimulus package? Concerned about the
$75 billion mortgage bailout proposal released yesterday? If that's
not enough to ponder regarding the Obama administration and fiscal
matters, sink your teeth into the fact that the president on Feb. 23
will hold a fiscal responsibility summit. Yes, lots of people will say
the time has long ago passed for the federal government to be more
fiscally responsible. Some say it nearly every day, now that Congress
and the president are willingly approving multi-billion measures to
shore up the recessionary economy.

Labels: Barack_Obama

I'm not a sore loser, I'm a scared one. And I'm not as scared by the
fact the economy seems to be going down the tubes as I am by our
President's performance in the weeks since he took office. I now have
more than a little concern about his integrity. Obama is behaving very
differently from what he promised. My questions to Obama are: 1)How
will you stop the "bleeding" in Washington if you don't control
spending by congress? 2)How can you claim a bill has no pork by
limiting the definition of pork as having to be specifically requested
by special interest groups?

Labels: Barack_Obama

President Obama's economic stimulus package is taking heat from the
Republicans who want it to include tax cuts, tax cuts, and some more
tax cuts too. Some of us lefties are exasperated as the prez chants
his mantra of bipartisanship.But consider this possibility: Obama's
giving them enough rope to hang themselves. A couple weeks of this,
and he turns the tables: "See? You can't work with these people. They
represent the same old politics as usual, the same old answers that
didn't work. I gave `em a chance and they blew it." Obama tipped his
hand Friday with the "I won" line, and he's got the votes in the
House.

Labels: Barack_Obama, U.S. House, U.S. Senate

Watching people react to President Barack Obama is both inspiring and
disturbing. Our new president clearly has potential to bring a
cease-fire to at least some the nation's culture wars so we can focus
on the big picture, rally to be ready for the next generation of
competition against India and China. And as someone who has seen
Obama's charisma in person I can report it is as radiant as televised.
During one interview with the Daily Times Herald it was heartening to
hear that Obama himself finds the "American Idol" treatment, a bit
over the top. "There's been some places where people have grabbed us,
and you couldn't get out of the place," Obama told me early in Iowa
Caucuses campaigning, with a laugh. "Here (in Denison), I think,
people were more measured, and I like that."

Labels: Barack_Obama

The first presidential transition I remember was 1974. We had just been on our family vacation, five hour drives with the news at the top of every hour on every station back in those days, and even at age 10 I could tell something big was going on. Nixon was the only president I had ever known; I remember vaguely Ike's death in 1969 but I don't remember Johnson ever being president. The day we got home was the night of the speech, and I watchedit live. I don't remember if I watched Ford getting sworn in but I remember the line "Our long national nightmare is over." Words that Obama could say tomorrow as well. Compared to that high constitutional drama, Ford to Carter didn't seem like such a big deal. All I really remember was the very pointed walk down Pennsylvania Avenue. And the dueling pardons: Tokyo Rose in the dying hours of Ford, the draft resisters in the first moments of Carter. (Pardons... I'm still sweating that one. Then again, I'm not going to believe it's real until I hear the Hussein tomorrow. Cheney may still have a secret martial law plan or something...)

Labels: Barack_Obama

One might expect an old krusty konservative hack like me to sit back and mock what President Obama has accomplished, but I'll be doing none of that. Instead, my eyes will be fixed on the inaugural festivities as I take in this historic moment in our history. Barack Obama is no longer the Democrat nominee; he is now our American President. I sincerely hope that as our President, Obama can unite us as a people. ... Now I know that the Hollywood types were early supporters of Obama, and I understand their excitement, and I have no problem in celebrating our peaceful transition of power. I just wish we would celebrate like this for every new president, not just the ones who Hollywood supports.

Labels: Barack_Obama

On January 3, 2008, roughly 240,000 Iowans attended Democratic precinct caucuses, and at least 90,000 of them ended up in Barack Obama's corner. However we felt about Obama during the primaries or the general election campaign, whatever we think about his substantive and symbolic actions since the election, we can all agree that he would not be taking the oath of office tomorrow if Iowa caucus-goers had put him in third place, or even a distant second. I started writing this diary several times last year. I kept abandoning it because emotions were so raw on Democratic blogs that I felt the piece would only ignite a flamewar. Since more than a year has passed, I decided to try one more time. I do not mean to start an argument or pretend that I have all the answers. I just enjoy thinking about counterfactual history. ... When I asked former staffers and volunteers an open-ended question about what might have changed the outcome in Iowa, nine times out of ten the first thing people brought up was the failure to anticipate how large the voter universe would be. Howard Dean's new-voter strategy had flopped, and most experienced hands assumed that Obama's would fail too.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton, John_Edwards

The Des Moines Register ran a piece on New Year's Day called Culver resolves to leave as premier Iowa governor: ... I don't know a thing about Horace Boies, but the piece got me thinking about what Culver would have to do to go down in history as the best governor Iowa ever had. What makes a governor, or any elected official, memorable in a good way for decades after leaving office? Some politicians make history instantly by being the first something-or-other to reach a particular position. Whether Barack Obama turns out to be a great president or achieves as little as Millard Fillmore, he'll be remembered for centuries as the first black man elected president. Culver's not going to be remembered for being the first of anything. Some politicians are good at winning elections but don't leave much of a legacy. Terry Branstad never lost an election and served four terms as governor of Iowa, but he's not going to make anybody's "best governors ever" list. ... If Culver does an adequate job governing Iowa through a difficult economic stretch, he should be able to win re-election. But if he wants to be remembered 50 or 100 years from now, he's going to have to do something big to change business as usual in this state.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Chet_Culver

I don't recall nearly as intense a reaction to Bill Clinton's or George Bush's nominees for secretary of agriculture. Either food and farm issues are much more salient now than they used to be, or I am noticing it more because Barack Obama is tapping an Iowan to head the USDA. Tom Vilsack's friend Jennifer Donahue says Vilsack is the "best possible" choice for secretary of agriculture. Denise O'Brien urges sustainable agriculture advocates not to give up hope, because as governor Vilsack was accessible and did some good things on food and environmental issues. Another Iowan, Food & Society Policy Fellow Angie Tagtow of Elkhart, wants Vilsack and incoming Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Daschle to work together.

Labels: agriculture, Barack_Obama, Tom_Vilsack

Barack Obama nominated one of "our own" to his cabinet. But is Tom
Vilsack qualified to be Secretary of Agriculture? If by agriculture
you mean Big Ag, the folks who brought you GMOs, Cloned cattle, and
CAFOs, you betcha. But if you mean agriculture that is sustainable and
healthy, well let's just say Obama could have done a whole lot better
than the Pittsburgh, PA raised Tom Vilsack. According to the Organic
Consumers Association, Vilsack's positions have included the
following: Vilsack has been a strong supporter of genetically
engineered pharmaceutical crops, especially pharmaceutical corn. The
biggest biotechnology industry group, the Biotechnology Industry
Organization, named Vilsack Governor of the Year.

Labels: agriculture, Barack_Obama, Tom_Vilsack

Our good buddy John Bresnahan writes at the Politico that Nancy Pelosi
is exerting her power, and made it clear to Rahm Emanuel that under no
circumstances was the Congress to be counted on as an "automatic" for
Obama's agenda. What a nice change. Too bad it's about 8 years too
late. We often hear how social conservatives are the root evil of the
party. If social conservatives would just fall in line and act like
good little boys and girls, they say, then our party could move
forward and get new voters. What they fail to recognize is, the social
conservatives have been working hard and been loyal foot soldiers, yet
they never get thanked. They always just get blamed. Take this last
election, for instance.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Iowa GOP

AP and the Reg are now reporting that Tom Vilsack gets named Secretary
of Agriculture tomorrow. Iowa's other ag secretaries, the Henry
Wallaces, had deep deep ag roots with Wallace's Farmer and Pioneer,
but what is there on the Vilsack CV of trial law and governance that
says "Ag" other than "Iowa"? So does that mean that the Grassley 48,
Vilsack 44 poll last week was for nothing? Or is he taking the Mike
Johanns route to the Senate: a brief stint in the cabinet to boost the
resume, then back home to run? (Of course, Johanns was aided by an
open seat, as opposed to taking on a 30-year incumbent...)

Labels: agriculture, Barack_Obama, Tom_Vilsack

A few weeks ago we discussed Tom Vilsack and the false hype regarding
his potential appointment to lead the US Department of Agriculture
which you can read here. At the time we contemplated that it was
really Vilsack or someone close to him that had created the false
hype. Now some revelations have caused me to conclude that Vilsack
most likely did not have anything to do with the rumors that claimed
he was likely to be appointed by Obama. Instead I now believe that it
was Tom Harkin or someone on his staff that leaked this information.
In an article in today's Des Moines Register Iowa's Democratic Senator
Tom Harkin takes exception with President-elect Barack Obama. Harkin
is upset because Obama and his staff have failed to seek advice from
Congressional Democrats.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Tom_Harkin, Tom_Vilsack

U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, has gotten the attention of President-elect Barack Obama. Of course, the two know each other from serving in the Senate together, but this morning Obama cited Grassley in a press conference on the economy for pointing out a government spending problem. Grassley is renowned as a watchdog for taxpayer money and this time he pointed out that $49 million of potentially improper payments have gone to farmers who exceed U.S. Department of Agriculture in income eligibility limits. Last year, Grassley released a Government Accountability Office report on farm payments going to dead people. Shortly after introducing two members of the economic team Obama said "will advise me as we seek to climb out of this crisis," he cited a press account of Grassley again lamenting problematic government spending.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Charles_Grassley

Last night was one of those iconic moments in time; it came shortly
after 10:00 p.m. Central Time, when California was called for Barack
Obama, putting the Democrat over the 270 electoral vote mark he needed
to win the presidency. I was at the gathering for Rob Hubler's
supporters at the Amerisports Bar in the Ameristar Casino in Council
Bluffs. A roar went up from the crowd as we all cheered. Men and women
both had tears of joy on their faces as we realized the import of the
results. And we celebrated. But, like the mid-term elections of 2006,
the results were mixed. Democrats gained five seats in the Senate,
furthering their majority. In the early morning light of 7:00 a.m. as
I write this, there are still four seats undecided, including that of
convicted felon Ted Stevens (R - No!).

Labels: Barack_Obama

Like many local elected officials in the Hawkeye State, Linda
Langston, chairwoman of the Linn County Board of Supervisors, had a
front row seat for the fledgling days of a spectacularly intense
presidential campaign that ends Tuesday. Langston, a Democrat, scouted
the full field, arguably the deepest ever for her party in terms of
resumes and star quality, before picking U.S. Sen. Barack Obama,
D-Ill., as her candidate -- a choice she made during a ride to the
Cedar Rapids airport with Obama amid discussions of the state's
understated beauty. She saw something within Obama that helped her to
make what was a personal decision to support the first-term senator.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

As a self-important, self-appointed pundit, I'd be amiss if I didn't
commit and make some predictions. So I've put my thinking beret on and
handicapped Iowa's big races. Iowa Presidential: Obama by at least 12
percent, with negligible third party voting (no candidate above 1
percent). The big mystery is why John McCain threw so much personal
time into Iowa so late in the game. There was no way he could make up
for the months of personal attention Obama showered on the state at
caucus time, and for Iowan's special pride in putting Obama on the
road to the nomination. And a handful of September and October visits
can't make up for two caucus cycles of Screw Iowa contempt for the
caucuses and hostility to ethanol.

Labels: Barack_Obama, U.S. Senate

Good things will happen on Election Day, no matter who wins. I swear
it. If McCain Wins: 1. Polling will become the curious sideshow that
it should be, rather than the ceaseless 500-trillion-watt epicenter of
political journalism and the font of all conventional wisdom. And I'm
going to get rich selling "I'm In the Margin of Error" T-Shirts. 2.
Tina Fey will be a heartbeat away for at least four years. ... If Obama
Wins: 1. Wave a fond bye-bye to the 40th Annual Groovy 60s Culture War
and Vietnam Re-enactment Festival. Take down the bummer tents, load up
the micro bus. It's so over. 2. Republicans might actually be forced
to find an election strategy beyond trying to scare the hell out of us
every four years. 3. Joe Biden and lots of open, working microphones.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

I was going to post these tomorrow but I thought about it and wanted
to give you guys more time to chew on them and post your own. I think
in rural Iowa Republicans will do well but the urban areas of the
state could see huge democrat turnout. Remember this is just my take,
I've been wrong before…President of the United States -- Iowa Results:
Obama 53%, McCain 46%; Electoral College: Obama 286, McCain 252. I
know I'm not the only one feeling this way, I went to a local gun shop
this weekend and the place was packed. I wonder why? United States
Senate -- Harkin 56%, Reed 44%. Now I've mentioned this before and
many of you have disagreed. I just don't see Harkin doing much more
than he's ever done in his past elections. The simple fact is that
there are a lot of people who really dislike him and are not going to
hold their nose because they don't know his opponent. In their minds
anyone is better than Harkin.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain, Tom_Harkin

John McCain's campaign has found a nice groove: he's got a populist
economic message to contrast with his opponent, and he's got people
questioning Obama's worldview (and how Obama sees America's role in
the world) by linking him to his past associations. John McCain now
needs to drive turn-out--and he is trying to use tightening poll
numbers to do it. However, McCain's campaign groove has returned after
multiple weeks of Obama enjoying good poll numbers, favorable press,
and some prominent endorsements by Republicans. While Obama's campaign
was urging voters to ride his bandwagon to what seemed to be an
inevitable victory -- early voting began across the nation.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

Well, with the election of President Barack Obama (I will never get
tired of typing that) looking more and more like a certainty, it's
time once again to get elbow deep in the muck that is Illinois
politics. In this diary, I'll be taking an updated look at possible
appointees to Obama's Senate seat. A quick reminder of the rules at
play here. The Constitution states that a congress person must be at
least 30, a citizen for at least 9 years prior to entering the Senate,
and must live in the state they represent. Beyond that, there are no
rules. Governor Rod Blagojevich can appoint whoever he likes to the
position, without having to have that pick voted on or vetted by
anyone. So here are my odds on who the pick will be: 2-1: Jesse
Jackson Jr. (D-IL)

Labels: Barack_Obama, U.S. Senate

Swing State Project has become one of my favorite blogs this year.
They publish so much detailed information and analysis about the
Congressional races. People also cross-post some fascinating work
related to the presidential election. Swing State Project user Mark
wrote this piece about "Detailed County Predictions for the
Presidential Race." Click over to read his predictions for all 50
states. Here's his take on Iowa: "Iowa -- Even when narrowly losing
Iowa, Kerry still won 32 of Iowa's 99 counties." ... I take it as a
given that Obama will not lose any county where John Kerry beat George
W. Bush. Obama's ground game is light-years ahead of Kerry's, and the
GOP ground troops are not nearly as motivated to GOTV for McCain as
they were for Bush. Obama is likely to win a lot more swing counties
in central Iowa than Kerry did.

Labels: Barack_Obama, elections

Two websites are keeping comprehensive lists of newspaper endorsements
for Barack Obama and John McCain: Editor and Publisher: "The
Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for daily
newspaper endorsements, by 105 to 33, a better than 3-1 margin," ... In
a real shocker, two solid Bush papers in 2004, the Houston Chronicle
and Austin American-Statesman, also came out for Obama today. So did
the more traditionally Democratic the News & Obsever in Raleigh and
the Orlando Sentinel, both in key battleground states. Obama's
lopsided margin, including most of the major papers that have decided
so far, is in stark contrast to John Kerry barely edging George W.
Bush in endorsements in 2004 by 213 to 205.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

As Tara said this weekend, "It's all out there now!" Every
controversy, every issue. And then my wife asked me, "Will the world
really come to an end if Barack Obama becomes President?" (Tara adds:
I asked if Jeff actually thought the world would come to an end...
because Obama WILL become President.) Well, no. Tara and I are
long-time political activists. If you are going to be involved
long-term, you have to accept wins and losses -- lots of them. I am
also getting ready to close out a legislative career which saw a fair
share of wins -- of which I am proud -- and a fair share of bills,
amendments, and proposals that went down to defeat -- in a very public
way.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

I used to be a psychologist, and one of the things that I would often
tell my clients is that the relationship between feelings and actions
isn't one way. People who are depressed tend to isolate themselves
even to the point of staying in bed all day. However, if they force
themselves to get out of the house, even though they don't "feel like
it," they often start to feel a little less depressed. Sometimes the
feelings come first, "I felt depressed, so I stayed in bed." Other
times the feelings come second, "I went for a walk, and I now I
better." I started to work for the Obama campaign even though I didn't
like him much. I did this for several reasons.

Labels: Barack_Obama

In baseball and politics, wins mean more than runs ... Barack Obama's
got so many electoral votes that he's got some left over for John
Kerry and Al Gore. At least that's what FiveThirtyEight says,
predicting a final electoral vote of 346.8 to 191.2. That .8 must mean
that Lincoln, Nebraska is splitting out its electoral votes by ward or
something. (An exaggeration, but only slightly. Nebraska splits its
votes by congressional district, which is why Omaha has seen both a
Sarah Palin visit and a Barack Obama office grand opening in the past
week.) It looks like the Democrats will win the total electoral votes
of the 2000s decade while "losing" two of the three elections. It's
like the paradox of the electoral college itself; winning the blowouts
doesn't make up for losing the close ones.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

With four weeks remaining before the election, the Iraq and
Afghanistan Veterans of America (IAVA) released its report cards on
members of the 110th Congress. Grading was based on legislation that
affected veterans and their families. In the Senate, Republican
presidential nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona earned a 'D' on the
report card, while his Democratic opponent, Sen. Barack Obama of
Illinois, finished the term with a 'B.' Grades were based on nine
votes covering a range of issue including veterans' health care, the
new GI Bill, mental health and support for homeless veterans. Both of
the nominees' grades were hindered by their attendance. While hitting
the campaign trail for potential votes, McCain missed six of the nine
votes, while his counterpart, Obama, missed four of the votes.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

Bad, bad, bad... In a debate completely void of any news whatsoever,
John McCain managed to make a single quote that could go down as a
colossal mistake..."that one." John McCain, largely despondent
throughout the debate, answered one question with a response regarding
a bill that Obama voted for. McCain, while trying to make a point,
simply stated, "You know who voted for that bill? ... That one," and
pointed to Obama, without even looking at him. Not a good move. Not
senatorial. Not presidential. Not a response worthy to a foreign
dictator, let alone a sitting U.S. Senator and your rival for the next
27 days. Lots will be written and said about this debate. Let's hope
pundits fail to see what we did Not McCain's most shining moment,
and we fear could go down as his absolute worst.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

During primary/caucus season, the potential nominees slug away at each
other, testing themes that might cause partisans to decide that a
particular candidate is too weak to win the general election for the
party. Hillary Clinton tried the "William Ayers/Tony Rezco/Jeremiah
Wright" connections theme -- but Democratic voters decided that those
issues didn't deter them from thinking Obama was the stronger general
election candidate. Please spare me the shocked indignation now that
the McCain/Palin ticket has advanced into the end game that Obama knew
was coming: the questioning of his judgment and philosophy through his
past associations. The Obama campaign was prepared and is in full
response mode. Keating Five, anyone?

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

I don't want to jinx anything with a debate tonight. And I'll grant
that my location in the dark heart of the People's Republic of Johnson
County skews my perceptions. But I think we'll look back on this
election and see the middle of September as the turning point. The
economic crisis put the ball on Obama's end of the field to stay, as
McCain double-fumbled; first with the "fundamentals of the economy are
sound" (no one really believed he meant "American workers" by that)
and then with the "suspended campaign" play that failed. Not to give
too much credit to one comedian, but Tina Fey's dead-on take on Sarah
Palin has locked in her image indelibly to everyone except the core
Republican vote.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Sarah_Palin

My husband thought it was more than a little strange when I bought an
airplane ticket to visit Carroll, Iowa -- half way across the country
from our home in Washington, D.C. -- just to volunteer for the Barack
Obama campaign for President. But Carroll made sense to me. It is the
closest thing I have to a family hometown. My ancestors came directly
from Germany to Iowa just before the Civil War and found their way to
Carroll County to farm the soil and build the German Catholic church.
My grandparents are buried in Mt. Olivet Cemetery. My parents were
born and baptized here and so was I. And since this is one of the most
critical elections in a generation, I wanted to volunteer in a town
that was equally important to me. There were other reasons. This is
the first time in 40 years that I have been able to campaign.

Labels: Barack_Obama

I always break down the general elections for presidential candidates
into three phases, the conventions, the debates, and the all out blitz
for the final weeks of the campaign. John McCain somehow found a way
to win the convention phase despite the 80,000 people who filled a
football stadium to see Obama's convention speech. The McCain campaign
ripped the headline away from Obama by selecting Sarah Palin as his VP
selection, and used a hurricane shortened convention to unite a
Republican Party against Obama. Going into the general election I
would have said that the only phase that McCain could win is the
debate phase. Obama has shown that he can give a great speech with the
aide of a teleprompter, but when left to answer questions on the spot
he suddenly sounds more like President Bush.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

Survey USA becomes the third pollster (after CNN/Time and Selzer and
Associates for the Des Moines Register) to find Barack Obama above 50
percent in Iowa, with a double-digit lead over John McCain. The poll
found Obama ahead 54-43 ... Yes, the Big Ten Battleground States poll
showing Obama and McCain tied in Iowa is an outlier. I'm thinking the
McCain/Palin rally in Cedar Rapids on Thursday is the last we will see
of the Republican ticket before November. We may get another visit
from Joe Biden, but I doubt Obama is going to spend any more time in
Iowa before the election either. Side note: Rob Hubler and Becky
Greenwald have to be encouraged by the news that Obama is slightly
ahead in northwest Iowa and far ahead in northeast Iowa.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain, polling

The Big Ten Battleground Poll released today shows Barack Obama and
John McCain virtually tied in Iowa, with Obama at 42.7 percent and
McCain at 42 percent when leaners are not added, and Obama and McCain
both at 44.8 percent with leaners. I am not buying it. It's not just
that Selzer and Associates, which has an excellent track record in
Iowa, released a poll four days ago showing Obama ahead 52-40. It's
not just that CNN/Time released a poll two weeks ago showing Obama
ahead 55-40. It's the fact that according to a commenter at MyDD who
has dug into the methodology, the Big Ten Battleground polls did not
weight the data according to turnout projections.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain, polling

When will the Democrats ever learn? As the polls tighten, and the
McCain campaign (rightfully) swells with confidence, it's time to
diagnose for the Democrats what their problem is winning elections
that they are absolutely supposed to win. Here are 5 things that our
liberal friends need to learn... 1. Stop hitting like girls - Jake
Tapper has started calling Obama "Isotoner" because the campaign has
now said for the sixth time that they are going to take the gloves
off. Their new tough ad? A photo of McCain in 1982 and a rubic's cube
and a big old cell phone. Dumb. Meantime, McCain has a pack of rabid
wolves running through the Alaskan forest. You'd think with all the
image talent and Hollywood types around Obama, they could come up with
at least one good, hard-hitting ad.

Labels: Barack_Obama

This election should be an absolute blow-out for the Democratic Party.
The Republican Administration, which has been in control for nearly
eight years, has seen the worst attack ever to occur on our soil,
taken the country to war under false pretenses after giving up the
hunt for the perpetrators of said attacks, destroyed the surplus it
inherited from the previous administration while running up the
highest deficits ever, increased the national debt more than all other
administrations combined, seen jobs lost, stagnation of wages and loss
of benefits, the economy on the verge of collapse, a mortgage crisis
that will see thousands, if not millions, of families lose their
homes, 47 million people without health insurance, negative savings
rates unseen since the Great Depression, trillions of dollars in
personal debt for Americans, and all the while rewarding its corporate
buddies and communist masters who really own this country. People
everywhere are clamoring for a change in direction.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

For a while now I have been on record stating that Barack Obama will
go down as the biggest flop ever to run for President. Just a few
months ago it was inconceivable that John McCain would have any chance
to win on November 4th. McCain lacked the support of the Republican
base; he couldn't raise the money needed, while Obama couldn't do any
wrong. Now it's hard to see how Obama can turn things around,
especially when you consider he's not good debate settings. For some
people Obama's fall is hard to comprehend. For us Iowans however, we
saw an example of this in the 2006 election with the gubernatorial
race between then presumptive Governor Jim Nussle, and Chet Culver. We
know how that turned out.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

When you take a step back, and think about where the Republican Party
and the McCain campaign was a few weeks ago, and then fast forward to
today and see where the Party and the McCain campaign is, the
transformation is amazing. While the McCain campaign was taking the
fight to Obama with a series of TV ads, there was always doubt that
McCain would be able defeat Obama. That doubt has replaced not by
hope, but by determination in a hurricane shortened convention. We
have seen how hard it is for Iowa Republicans to unite our activists
across our state, but this convention united us a party all across the
nation. The unifying force is a heroic American named John McCain, and
his running mate and fellow maverick Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

Priceless: The Political Influence Money Can Buy ... "Mark Hanna,
William McKinley's campaign manager, once said, "There are two
important things in politics. The first is the money and I can't
remember the second." Patrick J. Buchanan, "A Plague on Both Your
Houses," Harvard University, March 16, 2000. The line is often quoted
(most recently by Ellen Miller of the Sunlight Foundation on ABC News,
below) but omitted from even Wikipedia's Mark Hanna entry, and
otherwise seldom sourced. It's consistent with today's definition of
the "Golden Rule": "Those who have the gold make the rules." It was
the subject of an eight-part series of blog entries I did on the
general subject of "Golden Rules & Revolutions" ... And it was on
display big time at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

Labels: Barack_Obama

Democrats have 15-1 advantage in Iowa field staff ... While Sens. Barack
Obama and John McCain spend time at their party's conventions, making
their presidential pitches to a national audience, the real work to
make that a reality is taking place in battleground states like Iowa.
Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama are both counting on Iowa to help
deliver them to the White House. Both campaigns have invested heavily
in Iowa, and the top operatives for each side agree the outcome is
still very much up in the air. While the state seems to be trending
Democratic, recent polls show McCain making up ground as Election Day
draws near. "If we didn't think Iowa was important, if it wasn't a key
battleground for us, we wouldn't be putting a huge investment in TV,
radio and people on the ground," said Gentry Collins, Midwest regional
director for the McCain campaign.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain

As you all know by now I'm a partisan hack, but I give credit where
credit is due, and Hillary Clinton's speech last night was a homerun…
for her, not Obama. I have never seen Hillary deliver such a
performance. I was impressed and was left telling myself thank God the
Democrats didn't nominate her, and secondly why the hell isn't she on
the ticket? Oh that's right because she is married to Bill. Speaking
of Bill, he gives a prime time speech tomorrow. So let's see if I have
this right, night one was all about making the Obama's into the
Huxtables. Night two is all about Hillary. Night three will be all
about Bill, unless Biden says something stupid, which leaves Obama
with only one night where he is the focus of the convention. Someone
should be fired for that.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Bill_Clinton, Hillary_Clinton

With each passing day I'm becoming more and more certain that my
prediction that Barack Obama will be the biggest flop in history. This
past weekend he tabbed Sen. Joe Biden as his Vice President nominee,
and while Joe is great for a sound bite and can be a ferocious attack
dog, his comments about Obama from the caucuses and primaries have
already made their rounds in the media. Heck, the Biden pick has
allowed McCain to blast out a very effective ad that show's Biden in a
debate saying that Obama's not ready to lead, but praises John McCain.
I also found it interesting to see the liberal get all fired up when
Biden said McCain was out of touch with the American people in his 7
dining room table jab. To be really honest, that's really weak
material for your first time out of the gate. The liberals are used to
the "Bush lied people died" BS, and the best that Obama America and
his team of writers could do was line about 7 dinning room tables?

Labels: Barack_Obama, Joe_Biden

After Yepsen's article yesterday saying that the only hope of Iowa keeping its first in the nation caucus status is if Obama wins, there are several news reports out now to the contrary. First, there needs to be some clarification. Ds and Rs don't have to have their primaries/caucuses on the same day. There were several states this last primary season whose parties held their events on separate days. So, what the Dems do doesn't necessarily affect the Republicans and vice versa. As I mentioned yesterday, the R calendar for 2012 is supposedly set, and just needs rubber-stamp approval at the September convention. If McCain wins, I don't see why he would care which state is first. Either he's only going to serve for one term and not care what happens in 2012, or he'll be an incumbent president with no serious primary/caucus challengers in 2012 anyways.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus

Dave Nagle told Iowa Independent that Barack Obama is "throwing Iowa under the bus" by supporting a commission to study the Democratic nomination calendar. That commission will be headed by Debbie Dingell of Michigan, one of the fiercest opponents of Iowa's first in the nation role. "The creation of this commission is a clear sellout to Hillary Clinton," said Nagle, who chaired the Iowa Democratic Party during the 1984 caucuses and served in Congress from 1986 to 1992. Clinton supporters have been critical of the caucuses, arguing that they are too difficult to attend and that Iowa, where Clinton finished third, has too much influence. Obama won 12 of 13 states which held caucuses. "I got the email from (Iowa Obama campaign chair) Jackie Norris this morning saying this wasn't a problem for Iowa and we'd all be fine, but it's a real threat and it's really disappointing," said Nagle. "It's a real disaster for our state, frankly."

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus

... Yepsen underscores the claim that the Iowa Caucuses cost the Democrats the 2004 election by selecting the liberal Kerry, and makes a comparison to the stumbling Obama. Unfortunately for Iowa politicos, Yepsen is right again. First, if Obama loses, the Clintons will put a stake through the heart of the caucuses. It will be their party again. Second, and what he didn't write about, is that with Iowa Republicans giving the win to a fundamentalist Christian Leader, we've shit our Republican nest as well. Sorry all you Huckamaniacs, but the country will NEVER nominate or elect a candidate with a profile like Mike Huckabee. Set aside how much McCain hates the Iowa Caucuses (and believe us, he does), when mainstream candidates drop out of our straw poll, and don't compete hard in the caucuses, it's for a reason. And the reason is, the fundamentalist Christians want to make our caucuses about who is most radically pro-life, or most radically anti-gay.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus, John_McCain

Jim Leach is taking his Barack Obama endorsement on the cable news
circuit, appearing Tuesday night on Chris Matthews' "Hardball" on
MSNBC in a "Republicans for Obama" segment. "Do we want a new
direction rooted in historical American values, or one that might be
described as aberrational, that is unusual, in which we attack
countries that haven't attacked us, in which we lay plans for long
term occupation of a land where America and the West are deeply
resented," Leach asked. "It's time for a change and that change needs
to come quickly." Leach declined to state who Abraham Lincoln would
support in this election -- yes, Matthews actually asked. "It's always
presumptuous to think of anyone in a historical setting," Leach said ...

Labels: Barack_Obama, Jim_Leach

Barack Obama's campaign today announced a three-stop Iowa visit
Thursday by Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, one of the names that's
been on his vice presidential short list. With time running out before
next week's Democratic national convention, this could be a hint that
Sebelius is off the list, since she'd presumably need to appear at a
big roll-out rally with Obama if she were selected. Or, to take
another approach to the tea leaf reading and Kremlinology of vice
presidential selection politics, could the Iowa stops be auditions?

Labels: Barack_Obama

One prominent Western Iowa supporter of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama says
he's thinks misleading chain emails and rumor mongering are eroding
his candidate's support among older voters. "Even though John McCain
doesn't know how to use an email other people his age do," said Dr.
Steven Kraus, founder and president of Future Health, Inc. in Carroll.
Kraus, who sat next to the Obamas at the Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner
weeks before the Iowa Caucuses and served as the presidential
candidate's co-chair for Carroll County during that process, says
emails falsely referring to Obama as a Muslim are having an effect
with older voters he talks to in rural Iowa.

Labels: Barack_Obama

In yesterday's conference call endorsing Barack Obama, Jim Leach
suggested a fellow Republican, Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, as Obama's
running mate. Jim, you were always a modest guy. If Obama's going to
go with a Republican, how about you? Lord, two years ago I never
thought I'd say that. The most partisan Democrats might scream at the
notion of a Republican on the ticket. But Leach, at age 66 on Election
Day 2008, would be an unlikely prospect for the White House in 2012 or
2016. And talk about the symbolism. In his pre-Congress diplomatic
career, Leach literally worked side by side with Dick Cheney and
Donald Rumsfeld. Leach is a far better fit on the issues than Hagel.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Jim_Leach

The talk of the Iowa political universe today is that former U.S. Rep.
Jim Leach (allegedly a Republican) has endorsed Barack Obama for
president. I'm disgusted by this. While many of us have our reasons
for not being thrilled with McCain, an actual endorsement of Obama
crosses the line. Obama's attempt to appeal to evangelicals by talking
some of the talk of Christianity, all the while making a mockery of
every ideal Christians should hold dear (i.e. life, marriage, family)
is just evil. The sad thing is, he's fooled many Christians in the
process. And he's fooled Jim Leach too, particularly in the area of
foreign policy.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Jim_Leach

The Associated Press reports today that former 2nd District
Congressman Jim Leach has endorsed Barack Obama for president. I was a
supporter of Jim Leach for as long as he was my congressman. I often
found myself defending him to conservative friends. Yes, I disagreed
with him on abortion, campaign finance and to a lesser degree the war.
But he was a Republican and helped us maintain a majority in the US
House. Personally, I know Leach to be an honest man and a gentleman.
He nominated my daughter for the Congressional Page program. During
her tenure in Washington, she had nothing but praise for the
Congressman and his interaction with the pages and staff. RINO
(Rebublican In Name Only) is not a phrase I use very often. I am not a
part of Steve Deace's Operation Extinction - to rid the party of
RINO's.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Jim_Leach

According to a source in the Obama campaign, former Iowa Congressman
Jim Leach -- a Republican -- will be endorsing Democratic presidential
candidate Barack Obama this morning. Leach, as you may recall, lost
his bid for re-election in 2006 after three decades representing
portions of eastern Iowa in congress. Leach was considered a
"moderate" Republican and was a backer of campaign finance reform.
Leach did not accept campaign contributions from political action
committees. Leach became a professor at his alma mater -- Princeton --
and then was asked to be the interim director of Harvard University's
Institute of Politics at the Kennedy School of Government when its
director left to run for the U.S. Senate. The institute's new director
is to start September 1, 2008. Leach's wife has contributed the
maximum amount allowed to Obama's campaign.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Jim_Leach

Elisabeth Leach, wife of former Iowa Republican Congressman Jim Leach,
donated $1,000 to Democrat Barack Obama's presidential campaign on
June 30, the quarterly reporting deadline. Elisabeth Leach listed her
occupation as art historian and author on the Federal Election
Commission campaign finance report. Her works include Grant Wood: The
Artist in the Hayloft, published in 2004. The June donation was
Elisabeth Leach's second donation of at least $250 to Obama. She also
donated $250 on March 24. Jim Leach was considered the most moderate
Republican in Congress during much of his 30-year tenure. He lost his
seat to Democrat Dave Loebsack in one of 2006's biggest upsets.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Jim_Leach

I've written before that I think it would be a huge mistake for Barack
Obama to select any Republican for a running mate. The next president
will appoint at least two and perhaps four Supreme Court justices.
Obama is a longtime smoker with a family history of cancer. I don't
want any Republican in line to inherit the presidency. And I've
written that I think it would backfire for him to choose a woman other
than Hillary Clinton for vice president. Not that I have anything
against Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius (I would give her serious
consideration if she ran for president someday). But I agree with a
MyDD commenter who wrote that for Obama to pick Sebelius or Missouri
Senator Claire McCaskill would be like Hillary picking Harold Ford as
a running mate if she had won the nomination.

Labels: Barack_Obama

The "topline" result of a national Presidential poll doesn't really
tell us much. The presidential race is won state-by-state through the
electoral college. But national media organizations don't have the
money to poll each state individually. So they do a national poll and
report the top line -- who is leading whom. However, you CAN learn
some things by studying the "crosstabs" -- the internal numbers broken
down by demographic group. And they aren't good for Obama -- his
enormous lead among crucial independent voters has dropped from 22
points to THREE. Obama only has a 44 to 40 edge in who is better to
handle the economy -- and is tied on that issue among independents.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain, polling

About 200 people crowded into a room at the back of the Dos Rios
restaurant in downtown Des Moines after work today, at the invitation
of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's campaign. Some of
the people in the room had supported Obama in the Caucuses, but the
event was for the rest -- those who had been keen supporters of other
candidates. The main focus was on carrying Polk County by a wide
margin. Joe Kennedy, Obama's regional field director for Polk County,
was the first to introduce himself to the crowd. Jackie Norris,
Obama's state director, was next. Norris began by praising those in
the room who had backed other candidates. "We all worked our hearts
out," Norris said of the Caucus campaign, ending with a plea for
precinct-level organizing for Obama.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Tom_Vilsack

Jeff Giertz, the spokesman for U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, D-Iowa, says
he's taking a leave of absence for a few months to go work for
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in Alaska. That Braley
would let him go may say something about how competitively he sees
state Sen. David Hartsuch's challenge. Giertz was a familiar face in
the 2006 campaign against Mike Whalen. Iowa's 1st District is on the
Democrats' safe list, this isn't all that surprising. Hartsuch also
filed 2nd Quarter financials that showed him raising $16,655 for the
year, far short of the $640,000 Braley raised through mid-May.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Bruce Braley

Just What Has Happened to Senator Obama? ... What is Obama doing to
himself, his campaign, and his one-time enthusiastic, hopeful young
supporters -- and why? And what options do his disaffected former
supporters now have? Seemingly everyone's asking, and it's coming at
me from all directions -- the chattering classes on cable, the
newspaper stories in hard copy and online, the blogs (especially the
comments in the FISA one on the Obama campaign Web site), comments on
this blog, conversations with friends -- and personal emails. Here are
excerpts from a couple from my inbox this morning. One speculates the
problem may be a switch in campaign staff since the primary.

Labels: Barack_Obama

When the Democrats scheduled the finale of their 2008 national
convention for Aug. 28, it's unlikely anyone anticipated the historic
synchronicity of dates. Sure, Barack Obama had established himself as
a rising star and the orator of his generation, with his 2004
convention speech. But even Obama himself was saying that 2008 might
be a little early for a presidential run. However, "the urgency of
now" took precedence, and the 2008 convention is now Obama's. In a
parallel we'll hear over and over and over again, the first
African-American presidential nominee will give his acceptance speech
on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King's "I Have A Dream"
speech. Talk about setting expectations high.

Labels: Barack_Obama

Obama: No Longer "Change We Can Believe In"? ... I really doubt that
there will be many of Senator Barack Obama's supporters who will stay
home, let alone vote for Senator John McCain, because of Obama's
recent flip-flops on major issues. And apparently he's counting on
that as well since he's just left $85 million of public money on the
table. But can he now continue to count on his supporters' continued
financial support, and enthusiastic campaigning, between now and
November? That has become more problematical. As anecdotal evidence, a
friend has shared with me an email she received from an Obama
supporter in California that reported, "Barack Obama owes me $600.43.
I sent him my (federal government economic) stimulus rebate with the
proviso that if he opted out of public finance he should return my
contribution. I enclosed a self-addressed envelope with a 43 cent
stamp attached."

Labels: Barack_Obama, campaign finance

Barack Obama is holding a discussion with Democratic governors
tomorrow in Chicago, but Iowa Gov. Chet Culver won't make the event.
Obama wants to discuss non-Washington centered ways to pump up the
economy, so he's going to pick the brains of governors. Dealing with
the flooding situation in Iowa, however, will prevent Culver from
participating with the Dem Party presumptive presidential nominee.
Culver has been playing his schedule close to the vest, not going out
beyond the next day. We just learned at 5:30 p.m. that he'll be
kicking off an agricultural flood damage tour tomorrow morning at
roughly the same time Obama holds his event. Then Iowa Lt. Gov. Patty
Judge and Iowa ag industry officials will have more sessions
throughout the state.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Chet_Culver

A panel of clergy will discuss issues of race and the controversy
sparked by Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr., Democratic Presidential Nominee
Barack Obama's former minister, during an upcoming Juneteenth panel
discussion in Des Moines. "There is no one standard of what the church
is in the African-American community. The variety or diversity of
religion, even within our community, gives way for the need for people
to come together to discuss what it means," said Gary Lawson, founder
and chair of the Iowa Juneteenth Observance. "What happened with
Barack Obama and Wright - what does it mean? The only way to ferret
that out is to discuss it."

Labels: Barack_Obama

One day after the race for the Democratic presidential nomination
effectively ended, U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa threw his long-awaited
endorsement to the winner, Barack Obama. Harkin told reporters,
according to several news accounts, that his sensitivity to the
passion displayed by backers of Hillary Clinton, including his wife
Ruth Harkin, prompted him to withhold judgment until judgment was
dressed in its jammies and in bed. Other analysts, a.k.a. me, say
Harkin actually supported Clinton all along but was too afraid to say
so after Obama won a historic caucus victory. What would the fired up
kids say if Tommy H joined that square Tommy V on the magic bus back
to the 90s?

Labels: Barack_Obama, Tom_Harkin

In its spring edition, the Rural Report leads with a story about the
Barack Obama campaign's success at reaching out to voters in the Iowa
caucuses through community newspapers. At the same time the Center For
Rural Strategies published details on a poll showing presumptive
Republican nominee U.S. John McCain, R-Ariz., with a 9 point lead over
his likely Democratic challenger, Obama, in rural America. There is
much to be learned from the Iowa experience for Obama when it comes to
narrowing that margin. He can start by talking with more community
newspapers in certain states.

Labels: Barack_Obama

Democratic front-runner Barack Obama stood on an Iowa stage Tuesday
night, delivering a rousing speech to a big crowd at a big moment.
Nice visual, but Iowans have seen it before. His rival, Hillary
Clinton, was also still standing a few states away, passionately
fanning her flickering hopes to win the nomination with a forceful
speech in Kentucky, where she vowed to fight and scrap for every last
vote. That was something Iowans didn't see before January's crucial
caucuses, which Obama won in a stunning upset. You have to wonder, if
the twofisted Hillary of May had replaced the cautious Hillary of
January, whether things might have been different.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

Go ahead. Insert your Viagra/Cialis joke here. Does size matter? I
mean, when it comes to crowds. Barack Obama drew about 7,500 last
night in downtown Des Moines for his first post-caucus visit. John
McCain's return run brought in about 250. By my math, that means Obama
brought 30 times as many peeps. What does it mean? Obama's people say
it proves Obama has all the mojo. Senator Chuck Grassley, on behalf of
McCain, told us polls matter more than rally size (I'll be curious
what he says about polls later on in the campaign).

Labels: Barack_Obama, Charles_Grassley

Last week the Twittersphere in Iowa was lit up with jabber from people
I know who live near the former Obama campaign office in Des Moines.
"There's a black Hummer there. I wonder what's going on." Then it
became all too apparent. In another brilliant move, Obama is coming
back to Iowa for a victory lap. Obama's camp is hoping that the
delegate count will go over the top tonight, and while Senator Clinton
will be giving her "victory" speech in Kentucky, Senator Obama will be
in Iowa, where it all started, accepting the mantel of the democratic
party's nomination. It won't be official, but it will be symbolic.

Labels: Barack_Obama

"Love you back," Barack Obama invariably says near the beginning of
each speech, when someone from the crowd shouts "We love you." Barack
Obama loves Iowa back. The Jan. 3 caucus winner is in Des Moines
tonight to mark what he's not quite calling a clinch of the Democratic
presidential nomination. The Obama near-win bodes well for Iowa
keeping its first in the nation status. But on the Republican side,
John McCain's nomination makes the situation a little cloudier. John
McCain's relationship with Iowa has been testy. He skipped the state
in his 2000 run, with a few jabs at the caucuses and ethanol on the
side. In 2008, he made a partial effort but concentrated on New
Hampshire and other early states.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus, John_McCain

A little more than two weeks before the Democratic primary in Iowa's
third Congressional district, Ed Fallon has challenged Congressman
Leonard Boswell to shift his support as a superdelegate from Hillary
Clinton to Barack Obama. It's a shrewd move for several reasons.
First, Iowa's third district went for Obama in January, as yesterday's
press release from Fallon underscores: "Fallon says, 'Even though
Hillary Clinton finished behind Barack Obama and John Edwards in the
Third Congressional District, Congressman Boswell continues to ignore
the will of the majority by saying he will cast his superdelegate vote
for Clinton.' ... As I've written before, Fallon yard signs are often
seen in the same yards as the Obama "HOPE" signs, while Boswell's yard
signs are frequently paired with Hillary signs.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Ed_Fallon, Hillary_Clinton, Leonard_Boswell

"I would anticipate that this will help Obama's case with what has
been his weakest area lately -- working-class white voters," Dave
Redlawsk told Iowa Independent when he learned of John Edwards'
anticipated endorsement of Barack Obama. Redlawsk is both a University
of Iowa political science professor and a national delegate for
Edwards. Several sources reported Wednesday afternoon that Edwards is
expected to endorse Obama tonight at a Grand Rapids, Mich., joint
appearance. "At the same time, it probably makes no real difference at
this point in the primary campaign," Redlawsk added. "I would expect
Edwards to campaign actively for whoever was the nominee in any case."

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_Edwards

From the earliest days of the campaign, the race for the 2008
Democratic presidential nomination has been a hard fought,
neck-and-neck struggle. But now, as the race enters its final stretch,
it has become increasingly obvious that the eventual outcome is no
longer in doubt. With a difficult general election looming, Democrats
need to put our family squabbles aside and unite behind the eventual
nominee. And so, in the interest of Party unity, and his own health, I
am calling on Senator Obama to gracefully accept defeat. First, let me
congratulate Senator Obama and his staff for running a tough campaign.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

West Virginia votes today in the first of what may reasonably be
called the Footnote Primaries of the Democratic nomination process.
Don't get me wrong: I'm not saying that the voters of West Virginia,
Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico don't matter,
or that the outcomes in these primaries will not be important; far
from it. But the importance of these primaries now lies not in their
potential to determine the party's nominee - that question was
(finally) settled in Barack Obama's favor last week by North Carolina
and Indiana - but rather in shaping the end of the campaign and taking
a big role in determining the conditions under which the Democratic
Party begins its general election campaign.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

The audience in King's Chapel on the campus of Cornell College in
Mount Vernon seemed to hold its collective breath Thursday night as
George Stephanopoulos gave voice to words about the Democratic
presidential nomination process that most in the nation have been
impatiently waiting to hear: "The race is over." The same quiet
audience emitted whoops of joy a few minutes later when Stephanopoulos
said that Iowa's position as the first-in-the-nation caucus state
would continue. "I want to tell you that I do think this race -- the
Democratic race -- is over," Stephanopoulos said. "Tuesday night was a
decisive tipping point. Mathematically it is simply not possible for
Sen. [Hillary Rodham] Clinton to catch Sen. [Barack] Obama in the
elected delegates."

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus dates, Hillary_Clinton

Barack Obama won a decisive victory in North Carolina by slightly less
than 230,000 votes last night and Hillary Clinton has won in Indiana
by slightly more than 22,000 votes, so where does it leave things? If
the statements of the candidates count for anything, it looks like
more of the same all the way to the convention. The sad thing is that
there is no legitimate way for either candidate to win the nomination
outright without the influence of the superdelegates who may be more
likely to use "electability" as determined by polling to affect their
decision-making. As a John Edwards supporter, we learned first hand
that electability as measured by polls is hardly reliable.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

With a whopping 46 contests behind us, Senator Obama is now a mere 276
delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination. Tonight, as
the polls close, we will hear candidates, campaign staff, surrogates,
newspeople, pundits, and so on, ask (and answer) all sorts of
questions. There is, however, only one serious question today: Can
HRC make serious inroads in the delegate race? Possibly, she can. HRC
clearly has the support of the political establishment in both IN and
NC. In the Hoosier State, Senator Bayh -- scion of IN's most powerful
political family -- has been by her side at every stop. Same in North
Carolina, where Governor Easley has campaigned extremely hard for her.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

I'm sitting here blogging from my favorite Des Moines, Iowa
breakfast/free wi fi place, The Gateway Market. I ran into a couple of
good friends of mine, Ross and Amy Daniels, who are Obama supporters.
I reminded them that Obama people need to quit being so negative
against Sen. Hillary Clinton and start showing some respect. When I
"confronted" him, Ross was speechless. He had that smug "but, but,
we're right and she's wrong" look that many Obamicans have. Amy looked
at me sheepishly and said, "I plan to be a party girl." Good for her.
Here's the deal, Democrats. We're all on the same train together.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

The big news out of the 4th District Democratic Convention was that
Barack Obama picked up a national delegate. The 4th District had 507
seats to fill. At first count 425 of the seats were filled with
delegates and the first count was Obama 231, Clinton 147, Edwards 42,
Uncommitted 5. The remaining seats were filled with alternates. I was
one of the alternates that were seated for Obama. After the alternates
were seated the count was Obama 274, Clinton 175, Edwards 52,
Uncommitted 6. The number for viability was 76. The Edwards group (and
the uncommitteds) weren't viabile. The national delegate count at this
time was Obama 3, Clinton 2, with one delegate up for grabs. We then
broke into preference groups for an hour where both the Clinton and
Obama groups could persuade the non-viable groups to come to their
side.

Labels: Barack_Obama, IDP

"The headline out of Iowa is going to be 'Obama gains one,'" I told my
fellow delegates during casual conversations in the hours of down time
at Saturday's 2nd Congressional District Democratic convention. So
when I finally got home, and could access the national political blogs
that for some reason the Mount Vernon School District's wireless
network had blocked, what did I read? "Obama loses one." It's the
latest example of national political writers just not understanding
Iowa's caucus and convention process. On Thursday, I published a
comprehensive look at the math that showed Obama taking 15 delegates,
Clinton winning nine, and Edwards definitely getting two, with three
delegates still in play, and one more delegate possibly shifting
pending deals between candidates.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton, IDP

Attendance, Tactics Will Shape Results… They say half the game is just
showing up, and that's true for Iowa's Democratic congressional
district conventions. The other half may be tactical politics, as
supporters of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama try to deny the other
campaign any advantage. The most important factors in determining how
many national delegates Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and, yes,
former candidate John Edwards get on Saturday will be which campaign
does the best job of getting its share of the 2,500 delegates to
travel to the conventions, and who can quietly cut the best deals. A
district-by-district review of the delegate totals shows that three of
the 29 national delegate seats to be elected Saturday are up for
grabs.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton, IDP

I hear the constant refrain from the Clinton and Obama campaigns that
John McCain can't be allowed to win, because that will be just 4 more
years of the Bush Administration. It's not an implausible argument,
given that McCain has started to repudiate some of his past views on
taxes, for example. However … this is focusing purely on political
issues. Now, I'm not downplaying the importance of issues, since for
many people, such things as Supreme Court appointments, tax policy,
Iraq, and so on are key points. But I can't escape feeling that on a
procedural level, the candidate who would represent 4 more years of
the Bush Administration is ... Hillary Clinton. How can I say that?
Let me explain.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton, John_McCain

Shell and Pea Game Takes Eyes Off Prize... Here are some thoughts to
ponder as we await this evening's results from Pennsylvania where the
polls will close at 8:00 p.m. ET/7:00 p.m. CT. Up to now the focus has
been on whether Senator Obama or Senator Clinton has the most "pledged
delegates" -- plus those "super-delegates" leaning in their favor (or
publicly committed to them). Some talk about the popular vote totals
of each. Occasionally there's mention of how many states each has won.
(These numbers change from day to day, but so far Obama wins the
trifecta. He has about 150 more delegates, 700,000 more popular votes,
and roughly 27 to her 14 states.)

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

The Iowa Democratic Party is challenging U.S. Rep. Steve King's use of
his congressional Web site to promote controversial views on
presidential candidate Barack Obama, a story Iowa Independent broke
last month. King received publicity in mid-March for comments he made
about Obama to a radio reporter in Spencer. "The radical Islamists,
the al-Qaida ... would be dancing in the streets in greater numbers
than they did on Sept. 11 because they would declare victory in this
war on terror," King said in the interview. Democrats, who at this
point have just raised the matter in a news release, are considering a
formal challenge to King's posting. "Steve King is using his
taxpayer-funded website to promote his hateful comments toward a
Democratic Presidential candidate," said Iowa Democratic Party Chair
Scott Brennan. "King needs to stop doing his politicking from his
government office and get back to the work he was elected to do."

Labels: Barack_Obama, IDP, Steve_King

Where did Hillary's inevitable coronation become a donnybrook? Her
stately campaign-march to Denver an anything-goes Mad Max
fender-bender? Her unquestioned entitlement an increasingly impossible
slog through Obama lands? It's Iowa.... Iowa.... as in "Where did the
tables turn?" where Roger Simon of Politico autopsies Hillary
Clinton's presidential campaign. As Simon dissects the remains of
Hillary's once unassailable nomination, he names the main cause of the
demise of her White House hopes, "Iowa is where Clinton needed to
strangle the Barack Obama campaign in its crib."

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus, Hillary_Clinton

The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Barack Obama pulling with six points
of Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania with Clinton losing support among
women. A surprise win puts the race away from Obama. There are those
that argue that it is already impossible for Hillary to win the race.
I believe she is staying in because either 1) she has an internal
strategy to win that her people are NOT sharing with the press. 2) she
believes that there are unreported controversies still out there that
will derail Obama. What internal strategy? The Clinton campaign won't
say and they certainly are not telling the press.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

One has to give Steve King credit... He certainly knows how to turn his
own gratuitous insults into an opportunistic chance to claim personal
victimization. Why, King asks, do those pesky Liberals time and again
misinterpret what he says for "political purposes?" In reference to
his latest incivility, King now claims he wasn't really trying to
insult Obama when he boldly claimed that the terrorists would be
dancing in the streets if Obama was elected president, or that Obama's
middle name would send a welcome message to the terrorists, or even
when he implicitly equated an Obama inauguration with the attacks of
9/11. No, according to our poor misunderstood Congressman, all he
wanted to do was make a larger point about the need to persevere and
be forceful in the fight against terrorism.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Steve_King

My dear friend Gordon Fischer got caught in his own trap yesterday,
succumbing to the negativism that has characterized the Obama campaign
rhetoric in recent weeks. He wrote a post on his Web site (it's not a
blog, because he doesn't allow comments) that compared Bill Clinton to
Joe McCarthy and brought up the "blue dress" incident of the Clinton
impeachment. Those are two historical events that I've personally
heard enough about to last the entire rest of my life. When they are
brought up, it's usually by a Fox News anchor who is trying to draw
attention to himself and ingratiate himself to a rabid republican
base, who can't seem to get enough of this type of blithering
bullcrap.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Bill_Clinton

I sincerely apologize for a tasteless and gratituous comment I made
here about President Clinton. It was unnecessary and wrong. I have
since deleted the comment, and again apologize for making it. It will
not happen again. I hope my readers will accept my apology and we can
move on to the very important issues facing our state and country.
Thank you.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Bill_Clinton

We are at a telling crossroads in our country. We are divided on
matters of race, of economics, and of peace. Today, as the US enters a
sixth year of war in Iraq, as a recession, caused in part by this war
and in part on a war between those who have and those who have not,
causes strain and anxiety, and as a stymied conversation on race
relations and classism has been pushed front and center in the heat of
a presidential nominating process, we are challenged to find common
ground. And still, I believe, the greatness of this country is that we
will find a way. Self-reflection tells me that I have not always been
the best emissary in trying to understand or communicate to those who
I disagree with and I feel lessened for it.

Labels: Barack_Obama

An interesting statement by brother rf prompted this post.
Surprisingly, I agree in part with the following: "... but some of the
stuff [Wright] said about American foreign policy is more or less
standard political fare for an R congressman (who may still be running
for prez) and certainly for a good chunk of us D's." TRS concedes the
point. Many aspects of our foreign policy have provoked the Islamic
fundamentalists against us. Ron Paul, Jeremiah Wright and many
Americans have observed the cause and effect relationship between
American policy, and culture, and the fundamentalist Islamic hatred of
us. I am sure that many of our readers would agree that the following
are among a few of such well-established causae bellus.

Labels: Barack_Obama

Honestly, I don't know whether or not to be more ashamed of Representative Steve King the Ignorant, or the legion of gullible yahoos who support the guy no matter what, and who mistake King's utter lack of civility for 'speaking the truth.' Seriously, I think the terrorists would be much more likely to dance in the streets should we continue to elect Representative King, who apparently prefers to launch gratuitous, ad hominem attacks and make momentous decisions concerning our nation's future based more on uninformed prejudices than on the facts. Honestly, despite the old adage, ignorance is not bliss when the times demand strong, intelligent leadership!

Labels: Barack_Obama, Steve_King

During the March 7 announcement of his re-election plans for Congress,
Steve King said "I've taken a few arrows" for telling the hard truths
that people don't like hearing. Later that very day, in an interview
with a Spencer newspaper reporter, the three-term Republican said yet
another thing that infuriated many people. King has a habit of holding
forth in a way that causes a furor -- and harms his chances of winning
statewide office. King said terrorists would "be dancing in the
streets" if Democratic candidate Barack Obama won the presidency. King
said that was true, because of Obama's pledge to pull troops out of
Iraq, his Kenyan heritage and his middle name, Hussein.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Steve King