IowaPolitics.com BlogWatch

From the earliest days of the campaign, the race for the 2008
Democratic presidential nomination has been a hard fought,
neck-and-neck struggle. But now, as the race enters its final stretch,
it has become increasingly obvious that the eventual outcome is no
longer in doubt. With a difficult general election looming, Democrats
need to put our family squabbles aside and unite behind the eventual
nominee. And so, in the interest of Party unity, and his own health, I
am calling on Senator Obama to gracefully accept defeat. First, let me
congratulate Senator Obama and his staff for running a tough campaign.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

West Virginia votes today in the first of what may reasonably be
called the Footnote Primaries of the Democratic nomination process.
Don't get me wrong: I'm not saying that the voters of West Virginia,
Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico don't matter,
or that the outcomes in these primaries will not be important; far
from it. But the importance of these primaries now lies not in their
potential to determine the party's nominee - that question was
(finally) settled in Barack Obama's favor last week by North Carolina
and Indiana - but rather in shaping the end of the campaign and taking
a big role in determining the conditions under which the Democratic
Party begins its general election campaign.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

The audience in King's Chapel on the campus of Cornell College in
Mount Vernon seemed to hold its collective breath Thursday night as
George Stephanopoulos gave voice to words about the Democratic
presidential nomination process that most in the nation have been
impatiently waiting to hear: "The race is over." The same quiet
audience emitted whoops of joy a few minutes later when Stephanopoulos
said that Iowa's position as the first-in-the-nation caucus state
would continue. "I want to tell you that I do think this race -- the
Democratic race -- is over," Stephanopoulos said. "Tuesday night was a
decisive tipping point. Mathematically it is simply not possible for
Sen. [Hillary Rodham] Clinton to catch Sen. [Barack] Obama in the
elected delegates."

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus dates, Hillary_Clinton

Barack Obama won a decisive victory in North Carolina by slightly less
than 230,000 votes last night and Hillary Clinton has won in Indiana
by slightly more than 22,000 votes, so where does it leave things? If
the statements of the candidates count for anything, it looks like
more of the same all the way to the convention. The sad thing is that
there is no legitimate way for either candidate to win the nomination
outright without the influence of the superdelegates who may be more
likely to use "electability" as determined by polling to affect their
decision-making. As a John Edwards supporter, we learned first hand
that electability as measured by polls is hardly reliable.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

With a whopping 46 contests behind us, Senator Obama is now a mere 276
delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination. Tonight, as
the polls close, we will hear candidates, campaign staff, surrogates,
newspeople, pundits, and so on, ask (and answer) all sorts of
questions. There is, however, only one serious question today: Can
HRC make serious inroads in the delegate race? Possibly, she can. HRC
clearly has the support of the political establishment in both IN and
NC. In the Hoosier State, Senator Bayh -- scion of IN's most powerful
political family -- has been by her side at every stop. Same in North
Carolina, where Governor Easley has campaigned extremely hard for her.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

I'm sitting here blogging from my favorite Des Moines, Iowa
breakfast/free wi fi place, The Gateway Market. I ran into a couple of
good friends of mine, Ross and Amy Daniels, who are Obama supporters.
I reminded them that Obama people need to quit being so negative
against Sen. Hillary Clinton and start showing some respect. When I
"confronted" him, Ross was speechless. He had that smug "but, but,
we're right and she's wrong" look that many Obamicans have. Amy looked
at me sheepishly and said, "I plan to be a party girl." Good for her.
Here's the deal, Democrats. We're all on the same train together.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

The big news out of the 4th District Democratic Convention was that
Barack Obama picked up a national delegate. The 4th District had 507
seats to fill. At first count 425 of the seats were filled with
delegates and the first count was Obama 231, Clinton 147, Edwards 42,
Uncommitted 5. The remaining seats were filled with alternates. I was
one of the alternates that were seated for Obama. After the alternates
were seated the count was Obama 274, Clinton 175, Edwards 52,
Uncommitted 6. The number for viability was 76. The Edwards group (and
the uncommitteds) weren't viabile. The national delegate count at this
time was Obama 3, Clinton 2, with one delegate up for grabs. We then
broke into preference groups for an hour where both the Clinton and
Obama groups could persuade the non-viable groups to come to their
side.

Labels: Barack_Obama, IDP

"The headline out of Iowa is going to be 'Obama gains one,'" I told my
fellow delegates during casual conversations in the hours of down time
at Saturday's 2nd Congressional District Democratic convention. So
when I finally got home, and could access the national political blogs
that for some reason the Mount Vernon School District's wireless
network had blocked, what did I read? "Obama loses one." It's the
latest example of national political writers just not understanding
Iowa's caucus and convention process. On Thursday, I published a
comprehensive look at the math that showed Obama taking 15 delegates,
Clinton winning nine, and Edwards definitely getting two, with three
delegates still in play, and one more delegate possibly shifting
pending deals between candidates.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton, IDP

Attendance, Tactics Will Shape Results… They say half the game is just
showing up, and that's true for Iowa's Democratic congressional
district conventions. The other half may be tactical politics, as
supporters of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama try to deny the other
campaign any advantage. The most important factors in determining how
many national delegates Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and, yes,
former candidate John Edwards get on Saturday will be which campaign
does the best job of getting its share of the 2,500 delegates to
travel to the conventions, and who can quietly cut the best deals. A
district-by-district review of the delegate totals shows that three of
the 29 national delegate seats to be elected Saturday are up for
grabs.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton, IDP

I hear the constant refrain from the Clinton and Obama campaigns that
John McCain can't be allowed to win, because that will be just 4 more
years of the Bush Administration. It's not an implausible argument,
given that McCain has started to repudiate some of his past views on
taxes, for example. However … this is focusing purely on political
issues. Now, I'm not downplaying the importance of issues, since for
many people, such things as Supreme Court appointments, tax policy,
Iraq, and so on are key points. But I can't escape feeling that on a
procedural level, the candidate who would represent 4 more years of
the Bush Administration is ... Hillary Clinton. How can I say that?
Let me explain.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton, John_McCain

Shell and Pea Game Takes Eyes Off Prize... Here are some thoughts to
ponder as we await this evening's results from Pennsylvania where the
polls will close at 8:00 p.m. ET/7:00 p.m. CT. Up to now the focus has
been on whether Senator Obama or Senator Clinton has the most "pledged
delegates" -- plus those "super-delegates" leaning in their favor (or
publicly committed to them). Some talk about the popular vote totals
of each. Occasionally there's mention of how many states each has won.
(These numbers change from day to day, but so far Obama wins the
trifecta. He has about 150 more delegates, 700,000 more popular votes,
and roughly 27 to her 14 states.)

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

The Iowa Democratic Party is challenging U.S. Rep. Steve King's use of
his congressional Web site to promote controversial views on
presidential candidate Barack Obama, a story Iowa Independent broke
last month. King received publicity in mid-March for comments he made
about Obama to a radio reporter in Spencer. "The radical Islamists,
the al-Qaida ... would be dancing in the streets in greater numbers
than they did on Sept. 11 because they would declare victory in this
war on terror," King said in the interview. Democrats, who at this
point have just raised the matter in a news release, are considering a
formal challenge to King's posting. "Steve King is using his
taxpayer-funded website to promote his hateful comments toward a
Democratic Presidential candidate," said Iowa Democratic Party Chair
Scott Brennan. "King needs to stop doing his politicking from his
government office and get back to the work he was elected to do."

Labels: Barack_Obama, IDP, Steve_King

Where did Hillary's inevitable coronation become a donnybrook? Her
stately campaign-march to Denver an anything-goes Mad Max
fender-bender? Her unquestioned entitlement an increasingly impossible
slog through Obama lands? It's Iowa.... Iowa.... as in "Where did the
tables turn?" where Roger Simon of Politico autopsies Hillary
Clinton's presidential campaign. As Simon dissects the remains of
Hillary's once unassailable nomination, he names the main cause of the
demise of her White House hopes, "Iowa is where Clinton needed to
strangle the Barack Obama campaign in its crib."

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus, Hillary_Clinton

The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Barack Obama pulling with six points
of Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania with Clinton losing support among
women. A surprise win puts the race away from Obama. There are those
that argue that it is already impossible for Hillary to win the race.
I believe she is staying in because either 1) she has an internal
strategy to win that her people are NOT sharing with the press. 2) she
believes that there are unreported controversies still out there that
will derail Obama. What internal strategy? The Clinton campaign won't
say and they certainly are not telling the press.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

One has to give Steve King credit... He certainly knows how to turn his
own gratuitous insults into an opportunistic chance to claim personal
victimization. Why, King asks, do those pesky Liberals time and again
misinterpret what he says for "political purposes?" In reference to
his latest incivility, King now claims he wasn't really trying to
insult Obama when he boldly claimed that the terrorists would be
dancing in the streets if Obama was elected president, or that Obama's
middle name would send a welcome message to the terrorists, or even
when he implicitly equated an Obama inauguration with the attacks of
9/11. No, according to our poor misunderstood Congressman, all he
wanted to do was make a larger point about the need to persevere and
be forceful in the fight against terrorism.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Steve_King

My dear friend Gordon Fischer got caught in his own trap yesterday,
succumbing to the negativism that has characterized the Obama campaign
rhetoric in recent weeks. He wrote a post on his Web site (it's not a
blog, because he doesn't allow comments) that compared Bill Clinton to
Joe McCarthy and brought up the "blue dress" incident of the Clinton
impeachment. Those are two historical events that I've personally
heard enough about to last the entire rest of my life. When they are
brought up, it's usually by a Fox News anchor who is trying to draw
attention to himself and ingratiate himself to a rabid republican
base, who can't seem to get enough of this type of blithering
bullcrap.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Bill_Clinton

I sincerely apologize for a tasteless and gratituous comment I made
here about President Clinton. It was unnecessary and wrong. I have
since deleted the comment, and again apologize for making it. It will
not happen again. I hope my readers will accept my apology and we can
move on to the very important issues facing our state and country.
Thank you.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Bill_Clinton

We are at a telling crossroads in our country. We are divided on
matters of race, of economics, and of peace. Today, as the US enters a
sixth year of war in Iraq, as a recession, caused in part by this war
and in part on a war between those who have and those who have not,
causes strain and anxiety, and as a stymied conversation on race
relations and classism has been pushed front and center in the heat of
a presidential nominating process, we are challenged to find common
ground. And still, I believe, the greatness of this country is that we
will find a way. Self-reflection tells me that I have not always been
the best emissary in trying to understand or communicate to those who
I disagree with and I feel lessened for it.

Labels: Barack_Obama

An interesting statement by brother rf prompted this post.
Surprisingly, I agree in part with the following: "... but some of the
stuff [Wright] said about American foreign policy is more or less
standard political fare for an R congressman (who may still be running
for prez) and certainly for a good chunk of us D's." TRS concedes the
point. Many aspects of our foreign policy have provoked the Islamic
fundamentalists against us. Ron Paul, Jeremiah Wright and many
Americans have observed the cause and effect relationship between
American policy, and culture, and the fundamentalist Islamic hatred of
us. I am sure that many of our readers would agree that the following
are among a few of such well-established causae bellus.

Labels: Barack_Obama

Honestly, I don't know whether or not to be more ashamed of Representative Steve King the Ignorant, or the legion of gullible yahoos who support the guy no matter what, and who mistake King's utter lack of civility for 'speaking the truth.' Seriously, I think the terrorists would be much more likely to dance in the streets should we continue to elect Representative King, who apparently prefers to launch gratuitous, ad hominem attacks and make momentous decisions concerning our nation's future based more on uninformed prejudices than on the facts. Honestly, despite the old adage, ignorance is not bliss when the times demand strong, intelligent leadership!

Labels: Barack_Obama, Steve_King

During the March 7 announcement of his re-election plans for Congress,
Steve King said "I've taken a few arrows" for telling the hard truths
that people don't like hearing. Later that very day, in an interview
with a Spencer newspaper reporter, the three-term Republican said yet
another thing that infuriated many people. King has a habit of holding
forth in a way that causes a furor -- and harms his chances of winning
statewide office. King said terrorists would "be dancing in the
streets" if Democratic candidate Barack Obama won the presidency. King
said that was true, because of Obama's pledge to pull troops out of
Iraq, his Kenyan heritage and his middle name, Hussein.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Steve King

The two Democratic candidates still fighting for their party's
presidential nomination have sent email messages to supporters in
Iowa. The subject? This coming Saturday's county conventions. The
dynamic here is that delegates are to be elected at these shindigs,
and the Clinton camp would dearly like to be able to pick up a few
delegates here and there around Iowa's 99 counties. (Follow the link
and find Newsweek article in which Clinton is quoted talking about how
already "pledged" delegates may not be, well, pledged.) Compare and
contrast the two email messages from the campaigns after the jump. The
Obama campaign sent out an email on Friday afternoon, March 7, 2008,
with a link directing supporters to Obama's still functioning Iowa
campaign website which contains very detailed information about the
county conventions.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

Someday, Iowans may look back on the election returns from March 4, 2008, and remember that as the day the caucuses died. It's as if at each step of the way, at each opportunity for Barack Obama to clinch the nomination, Democrats are saying," no, we want more time, we want everyone to have their say." The price of peace in this dead-heat battle may be comprehensive nomination reform. The living room meet-and-greets of Iowa tradition may vanish, replaced by tarmac rallies at the Des Moines Airport. The Obama-Clinton fight may go down as the Florida 2000 of nomination politics, with the margin of victory smaller than the margin of error.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus, Hillary_Clinton

Obama admits American decline is his foreign policy objective; Hillary starts a trade war... The Drama of Obama literally just said that it was his goal to change
foreign policy to reflect an America that didn't think it was better
than other countries. While refreshingly candid, it is most
disconcerting that a man who could become President of the United
States denies the concept of American exceptionalism as a both an
ideological and factual premise of our relationship with the rest of
the world. Even more frightening, the crowd went wild. Not to be
outdone, Hillary then said that she would take a "trade time out", and
said it in the context of stopping American international trade to
"evaluate what works".

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

The general election campaign began with Tuesday night's victory
speeches by John McCain and Barack Obama, and when nominations are set
pundits need a new parlor game to play. Thus, the veep-stakes talk is
sure to start. Hillary Clinton's last bastion of ardent supporters,
older white women, face a demographic disappointment in her failure,
and presumptive nominee Obama needs a way to address this. While the
historic identity politics of the 2008 Democratic race have swung more
dramatically in Obama's favor, with his 90% margins with black voters,
it's Clinton who has played the identity politics card more
explicitly.

Labels: Barack_Obama

Quite frankly, I'm not taking a whole lot of stock in these numbers for a few big reasons. First and foremost, the poll was taken over the weekend. Weekend polls will always produced a slightly different set of numbers than polls that were mostly taken during a work week. Next, they only polled registered voters and not "likely voters". I think a sample of "likely voters" will be more indicative. ... Nobody has yet laid a finger on Barack Obama (if indeed he is the nominee) and I predict that he will be viewed quite differently than the media darling that he is now by the time November rolls around. Once he is exposed as an inexperienced extreme leftist that will not be prepared to take the seat behind the big desk on day one, we'll see some swings in his support, that's for certain.

Labels: Barack_Obama

One of the many reasons I supported John Edwards was that I thought he would expand the map for Democrats in the general election. I thought he would hold all of the Kerry states, adding Iowa and Ohio with ease, and would make things competitive in several other places too (like Missouri). I think Clinton or Obama could beat McCain or lose to him. Clinton's winning scenario is obvious: turn out record numbers of women and Latinos, rack up a big lead among seniors, thereby holding most if not all of the Kerry states and adding Florida and/or Ohio. ... Obama's winning electoral vote scenario is less certain for me. Although nationwide polls show him doing slightly better against McCain than Clinton, he runs behind Clinton against McCain in several key states

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton, John_McCain

Gov. Chet Culver, who stayed neutral during Iowa’s presidential caucus race, said Thursday he is throwing his support behind Democrat Barack Obama. Culver is traveling to Omaha to appear at a rally tonight with Obama, the U.S. Senator from Illinois who is locked in a tough fight for the Democratic presidential nomination with Hillary Clinton. In an interview Thursday afternoon, Culver cited Obama's commitment to change as the reason he is backing him. Obama won Iowa's Jan. 3 caucuses, beating out Democrats John Edwards and Clinton along with rest of the field. "I think it's clear that the American people are hungry for change," Culver said in an interview with Lee Enterprises.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Chet_Culver

It appears delegate counting is a new pastime in America these days. Iowa Democrats, like their counterparts in other state parties, have a group of so-called "super" delegates to their party's national convention who get to cast their votes in Denver. How will those 11 folks vote? Governor Chet Culver is at the top of the list of super delegates from Iowa. He confirmed during a recent appearance on Iowa Public Television that he was being lobbied by both the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama camps, but he is not ready to announce a preference. Culver's wife, Mari, endorsed John Edwards in December at a rally in Des Moines. Senator Tom Harkin is a super delegate. Harkin stayed out of the endorsement game before Iowa's 2008 Caucuses and has not indicated a preference between Clinton or Obama at this point.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Chet_Culver, Hillary_Clinton, IDP

One of the most perplexing of liberal concepts is diversity. No one, including the liberals who intone the word like the priests of Sennacherib, can precisely define the liberal, PC meaning of "diversity." We do know that Iowa is subjected to a constant stream of criticism that our first in the nation Presidential status is unfair because we here in Iowa lack sufficient diversity. In that sense, it is pretty clear that "diversity" is code for "too white" which, in turn, means that the racism that liberals believe universally inheres in all white people, would prevent candidates of "color" from a fair hearing in the states that lack diversity.

Labels: Barack_Obama

It is strange for me to feel so detached the day before an election. I
don't have a dog in this fight anymore. I see advantages and
disadvantages to both Clinton and Obama as candidates and as
presidents. I could live with either and would be enthusiastic about
neither. Super Tuesday, which looked a couple of weeks ago like it
would be a blowout for Clinton, is up for grabs now with Obama surging
in some key states. Put your predictions in this thread. 1. How many
of the 22 states will Clinton win, how many will Obama win, and how
many will be split decisions (with one candidate winning the popular
vote and the other winning a majority of the delegates)?

Labels: Barack_Obama, Bill_Clinton

"The death of a thousand cuts" continues... Al Giordano, who shares a
first name and last initial with the former VP, often seems to have
the most "inside" of inside information. And he's predicting an Al
Gore endorsement (not by name, yet, but read the post and you can't
miss it) of Obama... soon. Will it be soon enough for him to hit the
campaign trail for Barack? That would be yet another indication that
the relationship between the Clintons and Al Gore is beyond saving.
And certainly it would be another high-profile endorsement by yet
another big-name Democrat who could have stayed quiet.

Labels: Barack_Obama

Hillary Clinton is in a quandary when it comes to beating back a
fierce challenge from Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential
nomination. The talk of political activists has been the nasty,
personal tone of the recent campaign exchange between Clinton and
Obama -- as they bitterly battle over truth and consistency. The
exchange ultimately damages Clinton more than Obama in the upcoming
general election. First, Hillary's style is beginning to evoke
memories of the "burn the villages and salt the fields" campaigning
style of the Clinton machine of the 90s. With the voters demanding
change, and frustrated over what they feel is a unresponsive
government, I am doubtful voters will want to go "back to the future"
with another dose of a Clinton-Clinton White House.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

Barack Obama is trying to keep his momentum in Iowa going by keeping 3 campaign offices open. "Barack Obama is keeping his offices open in Des Moines, Cedar Falls and Iowa City. Volunteers are calling people in other states that have upcoming primaries and caucuses. Obama took Iowa by storm a week ago, and the campaign wants to keep that energy." This is an interesting strategy. Obama had plenty of time to build a strong, dedicate organization and this allows him to use that in states where he lacks the time to build that organization.

Labels: Barack_Obama

A day after former and current South Dakota U.S. Sens. Tim Johnson and
Tom Daschle endorsed presidential candidate Barack Obama, and after
today's endorsement of Obama by John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic Party
presidential candidate, and the dropout from the race by Bill
Richardson, for the second consecutive day I'm more interested in a
political conversation with a Northwest Iowan. A Democrat was still
trying - as I am - to piece together how Hillary Clinton was able to
catch lightning in a bottle and win the New Hampshire primary two days
ago. Her all-but-certain second place finish was detailed in polls,
but there Clinton was at the end of the day, with a 39-37 percent
victory over Obama.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

Barack Obama is sitting pretty ten days before the Nevada caucuses,
having snagged the endorsements of the Nevada chapter of the Service
Employees International Union as well as the Culinary workers and
their parent union, UNITE HERE. UNITE HERE is the first national union
to endorse Obama. In September, the national SEIU was very close to
endorsing Edwards, but backed off and left the decision to state
chapters. Since then, 11 state chapters of the SEIU have backed
Edwards, and four or five have backed Obama.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_Edwards

Republican friends of mine often shook their heads in disbelief when I told them that I thought Obama would be the tougher candidate to face than Hillary. Democrats, at this point, seem to think Obama is the better choice, too. But I have one cautionary note to sound in the current positive environment for Obama. We were told that after Iowa, Barack, as the new front-runner, would now endure the intense scrutiny due a front-runner, ala Huckabee. But that has yet to materialize. Ironically, Obama is a man who rose to prominence due to a stirring keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic convention. Now in 2008, the media is still focusing on his speaking ability, message, and rise to prominence. One British blog is even calling him the US version of "Princess Diana."

Labels: Barack_Obama

Barack Obama has taken a commanding lead in trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) following his caucus win. The Republican picture is more volatile, but John McCain is commanidng top dollar. In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money. The IEM has been known for its accuracy in predicting general election outcomes. Obama was trading at 70.1 cents at midnight, just as the returns from Dixville Notch and Hart's Location showed him winning the two tiny New Hampshire hamlets that traditionally vote at midnight on election day. That price is up from only 24 cents a week ago.

Labels: Barack_Obama

Many African-Americans across Iowa said determination and excitement is driving them to participate for the first time in tonight's Iowa caucuses. "Black people -- this is our opportunity to step up to the plate," said Melvin Hawkins, a 45-year-old disc jockey from Davenport and a first-time caucus-goer. Blacks in Des Moines, Waterloo and Davenport said they felt compelled to learn about a political process that is still somewhat mysterious to them -- and participate tonight -- because they feel strongly about presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus

Gov. Bill Richardson's campaign is expected to direct their supporters to caucus for Sen. Barack Obama in the second round of voting at Thursday's caucuses in precincts where he is not viable. Two sources familiar with the plan told Iowa Independent that the New Mexico Governor's organizers have been instructed to direct supporters to Obama in the places where they fail to reach the 15% threshold for viability. Richardson, whose poll numbers in Iowa have hovered near 10% since June, may need a solid fourth-place finish in the caucuses to continue his campaign. And he is best served by directing support away from former Sen. John Edwards, who consistently polls between him and the two national front-runners, Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton, in national and early state polls.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Bill_Richardson

Latest Iowa Poll Shows Obama Lead, But Don't Get Fooled... The latest
Des Moines Register poll shows a widening lead for Barack Obama, and
will be the last poll released by the Register before the Iowa Caucus.
It is undoubtedly good news for the Obama campaign, but it is also a
cautionary tale. AT THIS TIME IN 2004, Howard Dean was polling number
one. By caucus night, he came in a dismal third place and was out of
the race little more than a month later. Obama's situation is much the
same. Obama's support is what's known in campaign circles as "soft
support." His supporters are mostly under 35, the group that is most
likely not to caucus.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus

For those who have followed the polls over the course of this
election, it may be a relief to know the final numbers on January 3rd.
Many dozens of polls have been taken, often showing results ten
percentage points or more away from the poll taken next. Pollsters
call voters in Iowa and NH three or four times a day. Campaigns add to
the telephone traffic. The Obama campaign has made 1.6 million phone
calls in New Hampshire, which has a total population of 1.3 million
people. But as the election has gotten closer and the media coverage
become more intense, the polls have swung even more wildly.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama called into the Radio
Iowa newsroom this afternoon as he was riding in his campaign bus from
Knoxville to Newton. "This is going to be a very close election, but
if we go into caucus with the same enthusiasm and energy we see out
here, we think we're going to do very well," Obama said to open the
call. Henderson: "It seems as if both you and your wife are trying to
impress upon people that this is your time and you will not run for
president again. Are you doing that to address the 'he's too young'
argument and to make clear you are no Al Gore circa 1988?"

Labels: Barack_Obama

A Marshalltown family had their home vandalized on Christmas Eve. Their Christmas gifts were stolen and hateful remarks towards Obama and racial slurs were spray painted on the walls. The mother, who is a precinct captain for Obama, called the Obama captain office in town to tell them what happened. Two staff members went to the house to help clean up. Without the family knowing, another staff member and some volunteers went shopping to purchase gifts for the family's two girls, so they would have present to open on Christmas.

Labels: Barack_Obama

Earlier today someone called asking for my husband (mispronouncing his
name). I offered to take a message, and she said she'd call back
later. She called back during dinner. We took the call, and once he
realized what kind of poll it was, my husband put it on speakerphone
so that I could listen. After the jump I've put the questions as
closely as we can remember them... Are you a registered Democrat? Yes.
How certain are you that you will participate in the Iowa caucuses on
January 3 (range of answers provided).

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_Edwards, polling

The impact may be muted, as finals end today and students are already
leaving town. But today, the University of Iowa's Daily Iowan endorsed
Barack Obama and John McCain. "From the start, Obama was viewed as
charismatic but lacking in substance. Now, fewer than two weeks from
our state caucuses, this is no longer the case," the paper wrote in
its final edition before caucus night Jan. 3. "Obama's commanding
oratorical abilities should not distract voters from his policy
proposals, objectives that outline a return of 'united' to the United
States. We believe his judgment and ideas are the best fit, not just
for a party but for a people."

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain, University of Iowa

Judgment was the key word at the forum. The three advisors that were
there discussed Obama's judgment and his ability to unite the country
on foreign policy (unity used to be the status quo in Congress and has
lately been divided b/t red and blue). They also talked about his
ability to rebuild America's image so that other countries' leaders
will not have to sacrifice political points at home when they choose
to work with the United States. Sarkozy was an example of this. He
came in to power in France wanting to work with the United States but
because the United States had ruined its image (its soft power) in the
world, it became a political risk for him to work with the US.

Labels: Barack_Obama

Oh, yeah. This is familiar territory. The Obama-mania in Des Moines is
palpable. Everyone is asking everyone, "Who are you for?" Every time I
tell someone "I'm for Hillary," they screw up their brow and smile and
tilt their head and say, "really? I figured you'd be for Obama."
Technically, I am "for" any democrat who can restore our country's
good standing in the world and solve a myriad of problems that have
been created by George W. Bush's limited understanding of playing in
the world's sandbox. But yes, I am "for" Hillary even though she is
not the flavor of the month. I've seen this kind of hype before.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

Much attention has been paid to a questionnaire filled out by Mike
Huckabee in a previous race, specifically due to his answers on AIDS.
A similar questionnaire filled out by Barack Obama gives us a clue as
to how the GOP would campaign against him in the fall. Ironically,
it's that questionnaire that has the Clinton campaign now attempting
to go on the offense and challenge Obama's electability after months
of Hillary being dogged by that issue.

Labels: Barack_Obama

In his column for the Des Moines Register on Tuesday, David Yepsen repeated assertions he made on his blog not long ago, implying that the Obama campaign is somehow not playing fair because they are encouraging students at Iowa colleges to return to campus for the January 3 caucuses. As I've written before, the right of students at Iowa colleges to caucus is well-established. Mike Connery goes into more detail about why Yepsen is wrong here. He notes that several rival campaigns have jumped at the chance to imply Obama is cheating in Iowa.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus

Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Hillary Clinton have all released caucus training videos for the Iowa Caucuses. Obama has also released a Nevada Caucus training video. Each video has its strengths and weaknesses, and here I'm going to use my subjective rating system and rate each of the three videos in four categories, Creativity, New Media Savvy, Effectiveness and how informative is it. One video, in my opinion, stood out as being the best by far - read below to see which one it was.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus, Hillary_Clinton, John_Edwards

... Driving in inclement weather, waiting nearly an hour in a packed arena and then waiting, in some cases, well over an hour to exit a jammed parking garage, shouldn't be confused with steadfast support. "I came to see both Obama and Oprah," said Doris Nuss of Manchester, who indicated that she will be caucusing for the first time in several years and is trying to decide between New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Obama. "As this goes along, I'm getting closer to caucusing for him than I am for her. I don't think Oprah made a big difference as far as changing anyone's mind, but she was really good and it was worth it to come out on a cold night."

Labels: Barack_Obama

Obama pictured with an interpreter for those who couldn't hear --
which was pretty much all of us. You'd hear your favorite band better
with headphones, but wouldn't you'd still go see them live? 8:43 and
while Eric Clapton's "Change The World" may be on message for a
candidate, it's also easily the wimpiest thing Eric Clapton ever
recorded, out-wussing even acoustic "Layla." Our Own Chase Martyn
called and told me Obama was running late shaking hands in Grinnell,
so things should be later than the announced 9:00 start time... It's
about 98% student here, but Senator Bob Dvorsky is working the edges
of the crowd. "They're putting some of the old folks behind (Obama),"
he jokes.

Labels: Barack_Obama

With exactly one month left until the Iowa precinct caucuses, there will be virtually no more quiet days on the campaign trail. In Clear Lake, Iowa, where the sidewalks are covered in sheets of thick ice, folks are awaiting Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's rally inside the famed Surf Ballroom -- the place where Buddy Holly and friends played their final gig before a tragic plane crash on Feb. 2, 1959. In separate appearances in Iowa on Sunday, Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama stepped up their war of words, and that could flare again. But today, Clinton's main goal is to rally supporters, encourage them to drag their buddies to the caucuses on Jan. 3, 2008, and keep spreading their word that the ideosycratic caucus system is "easy" for first-time participants.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton

Oprah will travel to Iowa to campaign for Barack Obama, and his
campaign has come up with a counter-intuitive way of doling out
tickets that is either brilliant or foolish: 'In a news release
announcing the events, Obama's campaign said tickets to the Iowa
events will be given first to precinct captains, then campaign
volunteers, then to supporters and undecided caucus-goers...' I would
never have thought to do this. When a big event for John Edwards is
planned, I try to get as many undecided voters from my precinct to
attend as possible. I figure, it's more helpful to put undecided
voters at an exciting event than it is to pack the room with
supporters.

Labels: Barack_Obama

Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, as ABC's The Note put it this
morning, is one of Hillary Clinton's "overly enthusiastic" supporters. (Observers note Vilsack was among those holding a sign and screaming
"Turn Up the Heat" during HRC's speech at the Iowa Democratic Party's
Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner earlier this month.) As you may know,
Oprah Winfrey is going to be campaigning with Obama in Iowa on
Saturday, December 8, 2007. In answer to a reporter who asked Vilsack
what Oprah's ratings were in the Hawkeye State, Vilsack told The
Washington Times in essence that Oprah's show probably isn't as highly
rated in Iowa as it is elsewhere since a high percentage of Iowa women
work a full-time, out-of-the-home job.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Tom_Vilsack

The president of a major labor union is blasting Democrat Barack
Obama, arguing he failed to help save jobs at Maytag's Galesburg,
Ill., plant. R. Thomas Buffenbarger, president of the International
Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, took aim at Obama in
the union's newsletter, which is e-mailed to 18,000 members. "Illinois
State Senator Obama came to a single rally as union, state and
community leaders tried to keep the Maytag plant in Galesburg open,"
Buffenbarger said.

Labels: Barack_Obama

I posted this on Daily Kos yesterday and meant to post it here, but
didn't get around to it. Here are my final rankings of the speeches at
the Jefferson Jackson Dinner... 1. Barack Obama - This was the 5th
time seeing Obama in person and he gave the passionate, strong speech
I have heard. Most in attendance would say he was one of the best and
the press, including David Yepsen, declared him the winner too. 2.
John Edwards - Led off the night with a riproaring speech that fired
up the crowd. However, he was probably hurt by going first on a long
night of speeches. He didn't get the media bump, but the 9,000 likely
caucus goers left impressed with Edwards.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_Edwards