IowaPolitics.com BlogWatch

John Edwards is out of the race. Surprised? He stuck it out long
enough to make it through Florida. Why? Would the bills have been too
high with too little return for him to stay in the race to compete in
Tsunami Tuesday on Feb. 5th. Surely his endorsement will now be the
most talked about/sought after voice of support around Democratic
circles. It's difficult, dare I say, almost impossible, to see him
endorsing Clinton. But will he go out in public to say he's an Obama
guy now? If he doesn't, will that effectively help Clinton? Edwards
would never tell me he HAD to win the Iowa Caucuses. But I never
bought it.

Labels: John_Edwards, Rudy_Giuliani

Not to gloat, but TRS has been talking about a brokered convention for
months now. It seems like the story is catching on. This Freddoso
article is a more detailed mathematical analysis of the possibility
our GOP nominee being chosen at the RNC than we did here at TRS. The
conclusion is very much the same-there is a very real possibility that
the GOP nominee will be chosen by delegates at the national convention
next year. Rudy's numbers have slipped since we first publicly
broached the brokered convention, and the remaining candidates have
moved around so that Huck looks to be picking up more delegates than
he did on November 24, but the basic dynamic hasn't changed.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

... Why is a vote for Huckabee a vote for Rudy? On the surface the proposition appears preposterous. Huckabee and Rudy represent the absolute polar opposites of the GOP field; Huck being a solid social conservative but fiscal liberal/moderate and conversely Rudy being a social liberal/moderate and a solid fiscal conservative. I've had conversations with supporters of both Rudy and Huck; they are farily consistent in saying that the one candidate in the race that they wouldn't/couldn't vote for is the other. ... Huckabee's appeal is disproportionately weighted to firm evangelical Christians. The latest Iowa poll shows that Huckabee is blowing every other candidate away in this demographic. He's got nearly half of all evangelical Iowans polled in his camp already. He knows and speaks the language of this well-organized and motivated demographic. But is it enough? Maybe for Iowa, but not for the subsequent states.

Labels: Mike_Huckabee, Rudy_Giuliani

I've been saying for a long time that Rudy Giuliani will not be the
GOP nominee. Others say he's got a plausible path: finish in the top
three in Iowa, the top two in New Hampshire, then hang on until the
big states vote on February 5. Now, this would be realistic if Rudy
were actually going after Republican moderates in Iowa. Religious
conservatives clearly call the shots in the party, but if the goal is
just to finish in the top three, you could do that with a united front
of moderates. But read this article from the Sunday Des Moines
Register on the lack of outreach from Giuliani's campaign to
Republican moderates. It is beyond belief.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

This afternoon, I attended Rudy Giuliani's townhall meeting on the
campus of Iowa State University. The former Mayor of New York City
spoke to a crowd of about 400 people and it was basically standing
room only. Normally, the seating is set up in a "theatre" setting, but
this was set up so that Rudy was standing on a podium in the middle of
the room. Rudy was about 45 minutes late but I think that was partly
because he didn't get out UNI as quickly as originally scheduled.
After getting an introduction from Mike Beals, the Students for Rudy
Chairman at ISU, Rudy came out to a very warm reception.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

Oh yes, it's my favorite time of the year... political endorsement
time. I've seen some strange ones in my time. A few years back my
liberal hometown newspaper endorsed draconian Congressman Steve King
from Iowa's fifth district, then spent the entire year kicking itself
in its proverbial butt over and over. The endorsement I read about
yesterday probably takes the cake for the most unlikely and strangest
of all time. Pat Robertson, the idiot-in-chief of the radical right
endorsed Rudy Giuliani. I rubbed my eyes, thinking, that I must have
read it wrong.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

As I've written a couple of posts below, I don't expect Rudy Giuliani
to be the GOP nominee. However, I've noticed lately that several
Democrats in the race have been going out of their way to take on
Rudy. Joe Biden scored at last week's debate with his joke that every
sentence uttered by Rudy has a noun, a verb and 9/11, and his comment
that Rudy is the most unqualified person to run for president since
George W. Bush. His campaign has been milking these moments in
fund-raising e-mails featuring highlights from the debate and
outrageous comments made by Rudy. For instance: 'As I wrote earlier,
we expected another attack from Giuliani's campaign on Friday and they
didn't disappoint...'

Labels: Barack_Obama, Joe_Biden, Rudy_Giuliani

Our front running Rudy Giuliani appeared today at Drake U's Olmstead
Center. The room was packed, with every chair filled. The room was set
for about 225 and there several on the stage and standing so the best
guess would be about 250 (exclusive of handlers and media) were there
to hear Giuliani. The crowd was youthful, not a surprising demographic
given the venue. However, many were young adults of the post
college-pre male pattern baldness age group. I'm guessing some of them
are now earning their first paychecks where student loans and health
insurance really are competing with the party budget for priority.
Microeconomic fiscal conservatism certainly comes with fiscal burden,
a terrible shock for twenty-somethings during every period of history
I would guess.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani picked up the endorsement and support of former
Wisconsin Governor, former Secretary of Health and Human Services, and
former Republican candidate for the Presidency of the United States
Tommy Thompson today. This is a fairly interesting development and
while it may not mean a whole lot (endorsements, in my opinion, rarely
do), it is at least another pretty good feather for Rudy to add to his
cap. Tommy ran his campaign all spring and summer here in Iowa as
someone who presented a fairly conservative platform, both fiscally
and socially. While Rudy appears to put forward a conservative set of
ideas on fiscal issues, he definitely languishes on the social issues.
Thus, Tommy's endorsement of Rudy is not something a lot of people
could have predicted by just comparing ideology to ideology.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani, Tommy_Thompson

Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack was in New York City yesterday to
introduce Hillary Clinton at a NYC fundraiser. He took a turn on a
New York television station and took a few shots at former New York
Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Vilsack mentioned Giuliani's "multiple
marriages" and references Giuliani's strained relationships with his
children in the interview... Vilsack's statements would no doubt be
classified as "negative" by the Giuliani campaign, if the Giuliani
folks were making comments on this episode (which they're not).
Adding more context to this flap is Vilsack's tirade against Barack
Obama in July during the whole squabble over whether Obama and/or
Clinton would or would not talk to dictators if either is elected
president. "It's not the Iowa way," Vilsack said, accusing Obama of
engaging in "negative politics" in his verbal tussle with Clinton.

Labels: Hillary_Clinton, Rudy_Giuliani, Tom_Vilsack

The fourth debate is in the books. Tonight presented a far better
format, with far more intramural clash, than in any of the predecessor
events. Huckabee stole the show tonight, with Rudy close on his heals
and McCain rebounding hard. I still don't know why we have moderators
at all. Shouldn't someone who wants to be President of the United
States be able to stand his ground on a stage with his competitors
without any direction or editing? As usual, we're going to rate each
debater on a scale of 1-30. The ratings are based in part on
presentation, part on content and part on the stage management of the
occasion. In alphabetical order: Sam Brownback: Sam seemed very off
his game tonight. Sam started the debate series with a great
performance in the first debate but has consistently been kind of a
wall flower in the last three debates.

Labels: John_McCain, Mike_Huckabee, Rudy_Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani is the first Republican candidate with an office in
Johnson County. The Democratic stronghold, indelibly dubbed "the
People's Republic of Johnson County" by David Yepsen, may seem like an
odd spot for Giuliani to open only his second office in the state. But
the move actually reflects a subtle understanding of the caucus
process. Unlike the Democratic caucuses, where delegates are
apportioned to counties and precincts by a complex formula based on
general election returns, the Republican caucuses simply count raw
votes. Though Johnson County is the most Democratic county in the
state by percentage, it's still number eight in the number of
registered Republicans, one notch ahead of GOP rotten borough Sioux
County.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

And brother did he generate enthusiasm. A large crowd gathered around
Rudy from the moment he arrived at the main Grand Avenue gate. People
shouted out things like "There's Rudy Giuliani" from all angles as
Giuliani walked around the Fairgrounds for several hours. Rudy took
impromptu questions from the crowd at all of his stops. The Giuliani
leadership mystique was on full display in his typically well-reasoned
answers. One thing that differentiates Giuliani from almost every
other politician in America is his willingness to explain to people
why they should agree with him instead of why he agrees with them.
Giuliani has mastered the too rare practice of persuasive argument.
Rudy fielded the usual questions on Iraq and immigration with his
usual very hard lines.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

Mayor Rudy Giuliani took his turn today on the Des Moines Register's
"Soap Box" this afternoon and I was in attendance to witness this
spectacle. Rudy drew a sprawling crowd of people as he spoke for maybe
20 or 25 minutes. He started the speech by talking about his "12
Commitments" to the American people and decided to heavily concentrate
on one of his main points: keeping America in an offensive posture
against terrorism while at the same time arguing that being in a
defensive stature, as has been the case in the past, would be a recipe
for defeat. Then he opened it up to questions from the crowd. He said
that he wants people to evaluate him on his positions and record and
made it clear that if you didn't like what he had to say, then he'd
like for you for someone else.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

Now that the Ames Straw Poll has come and gone Rudy Giuliana and Fred
Thompson are ratcheting up their presence in Iowa. Rudy has an ad buy
in Iowa. I have started hearing radio spots for Rudy Giuliani. He is
pushing his 12 Commitments. Andrew Dorr, Fred Thompson's political
director, sent me an e-mail about Fred Thompson's upcoming visit to
the Hawkeye State. Now that the Straw poll is over, they feel that it
is safe to come to Iowa again.

Labels: Fred Thompson, Rudy_Giuliani

America's Mayor, "Hizzoner", made his first trip to Western Iowa today
and I was able to make it to his mid-afternoon stop in Le Mars, the
Ice Cream Capitol of the World. When candidates come to Le Mars, they
either stop at the splendiliquently delightful visitor's center or
they stop at the Family Table. Rudy had well over 200 packed into the
Family Table restaurant and tons of national media yipping at his
heels the entire time too. I've seen Rudy a couple of times now. I saw
him back in early April when he held his first event in Des Moines and
then I saw him again about 10 days later when he was speaking at the
Lincoln Day dinner. I must say that I was more impressed with Rudy
then. Rudy is the type of candidate who does really well with lecterns
and prepared remarks whereas someone like Mitt Romney needs to avoid
the lectern. While Rudy is still impressive in a stump setting, he's
not as smooth as otherwise.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

It's t-minus 11 minutes for the Rudy Giuliani speech here in the gym
at Woodrow Wilson Middle School in Council Bluffs. A fellow just
asked the crowd of about 200 to turn their cell phones and pagers off.
That is perhaps a signal RG is in the building, perhaps not. As we
drove into the west entrance, two Ron Paul supporters stood on the
curb, waving and holding their Ron Paul signs. The Rudy sign nearby
was planted in the ground, festooned with balloons. Inside, a blue
curtain is comprising the north wall of the gym, decorated with a lone
"Rudy" sign. And the sign says nothing other than that -- Rudy. No
mention of his party or his presidential campaign. Just the white
letters against a navy background with a red border. The Council
Bluffs Thomas Jefferson band played a few patriotic numbers and after
the colors were posted by some local Boy Scouts, the band played
"You're a Grand Old Flag." State Senator Jeff Angelo of Creston
stopped by press row earlier to lament the early start time and
revealed he was advised to stop wearing his novelty ties, advice which
he is heeding.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

The national Republican front-runner, former New York City Mayor Rudy
Giuliani, is going to try a new strategy to gain traction in the
first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa. He's going to show his face.
At the moment, he trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the
Iowa polls, thanks in part to Romney's television advertising
bombardment and frequent visits to the Hawkeye State. By contrast,
Giuliani has made only one quick, in-and-out visit to Des Moines
recently, and he's fighting a perception that he has conceded the
traditional kick-off state -- ever since he, and later Sen. John
McCain of Arizona, announced they would not compete in the non-binding
Ames Straw Poll on August 11. But while Romney is away on Wednesday
(stumping in the conservative stronghold of El Paso County, Colorado)
Giuliani is launching his first full-fledged, full-state barnstorming
across Iowa on Wednesday and Thursday. He's hitting some critical,
conservative bastions -- Council Bluffs, Sloan, Le Mars and Sioux City
-- and then heading east toward Fairbank, Waterloo, Cedar Rapids and
Davenport.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani returned to Iowa today for his first visit since he
declared he would not participate in the Iowa Straw poll. Since this
announcement he has fallen back marginally in the polls and I was
interested to see how he would use this visit to mend the fences he's
broken in the state. Giuliani did a great job of explaining how he
would cut spending in Washington and remained humble about his past
successes. He's a fiscal conservative who's strong on national
defense, but is that message enough to win the Iowa Caucus? Giuliani's
visit to the state was a great opportunity for him to turn the tide of
his campaign in Iowa and energize his followers. Unfortunately, he
broke one simple rule that only rubbed more salt in the wounds of Iowa
Republicans; he was extremely late. Giuliani was supposed to speak at
10:30, but didn't arrive until 11:20. When holding a late-morning
weekday event, it is imperative to start on time. People have left
work to see you and don't have a lot of time to waste. Iowan's disgust
for this lack of class was evident at the event. I saw a number of
people leave the event before Giuliani arrived, because they had to
get back to work. Many who came to give Rudy a second chance, were
disgusted with the tardiness and grumbled that this wasn't the way to
gain support.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

Some health advocates (most with the Partnership for Better Health, I
believe) say they got the brush off from Rudy Giuliani during his
campaign stop in Des Moines (his first visit to the state since his
campaign announced he would not take part in the Iowa Republican Straw
Poll). They weren't pleased from the start since the event began more
than a half hour late. Giuliani took no questions from the crowd, and
according to the health care'ers, he walked past them as they tried to
talk with him about his commitment to improving health care for people
with chronic disease. One woman did tell me she didn't completely get
ignored. As she tried to hand the Mayor a packet of health care
packet, he instead reached out and grabbed her "12 Commitments"
handout from his campaign. Then, he signed it and gave it back to her.
I could also mention the post-speech debacle in an adjacent room where
we reporters were permitted to speak with Rudy G. Unfortunately, there
was no podium for our several dozen microphones. We were told the
campaign also didn't want lights illuminating the event (at least
according to one of the equipment workers).

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

What's up with the Hizzoners today? The Associated Press is reporting
that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is giving up his Republican
Party registration and plans to re-register as an unaffiliated voter.
This, of course, pours fuel on the rumors that the mega-millionaire is
preparing to mount an independent bid for president. Not so fast, he
told reporters today. He still has a job to do in New York City. But
what do you think? Meanwhile, all this is happening on a day when the
former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani, has lost his most high
profile advocates in both Iowa and South Carolina. First, came word
that his man in Iowa, former Congressman Jim Nussle, was being been
tapped by President Bush to replace the departing Rob Portman as
Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Then came news
that his fellow down in South Carolina, state Treasurer Thomas
Ravenel, has been indicted on drug charges.

Labels: Michael_Bloomberg, Rudy_Giuliani

I received an e-mail in my inbox today from Team Rudy that was another 'Join the Campaign' type of deal. I get about 20 of those a day from both Republicans and Democrats. However, Rudy's was more interesting than most. He had a list of 12 'Commitments' to America. Unfortunately, none of them were a commitment to the Ames 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll. Rudy is very ambitious here. I feel like he is promising the world to us. I actually found absolutely nothing in this 'group of 12' that I didn't agree with. While I think this is a nice set of platform platitudes, he'll obviously need to become more detailed. While I think this a nice 'skim over' of his ideas, he also risks sounding like he'll be all things to all people. Here is a rundown of what Rudy is doing. I went through and highlighted the various code words. As you might know, both Republicans and Democrats have established a list of special 'code words' that can easily be spouted in order to get quick applause lines and fire up the base. Rudy's 12 commitments to the American people are: I will keep America on offense in the Terrorists' War on Us. I will end illegal immigration, secure our borders, and identify every non-citizen in our nation...

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

This is why when I refill out my voter identification card, I seriously doubt I will list myself as Republican. While most of my beliefs are rooted in conservatism, the Republican party has become a shell of itself and frankly no longer worthy of my support. The harsh profanity on CBB isn't reserved just for liberals, it cuts both ways. But first, the press release from the Iowa Republican party whining about Rudy not spending millions of dollars for a one day event in Ames. You would think by the tone of the letter that Giuliani was skipping Iowa all together. I was going to compare the letter from the Iowa Republican party to that of a jilted lover, but then I realized they have never loved Rudy. Their relationship is more like that of a john and a dime store hooker. When they need a crowd or a draw, invite Rudy. Otherwise rip him and his stances on unimportant issues. Yes I said unimportant. Because if you believe gay marriage and abortion come before about 20 - 30 other issues facing this nation then I got a few things to discuss with you that should keep you awake at night. And no it's not Will and Grace reruns.

Labels: Iowa GOP, Rudy_Giuliani

• iPol: Romney Campaign Chair Rips Iowa GOP Rank and File
• Price of Politics: Minus 2 Straws
  
• Price of Politics: More Straw
• Iowans for Romney: Giuliani/McCain Campaigns on Life Support . . . They Flip-Flop on Ames Straw Poll
  
• Iowa Voice: McCain, Giuliani To Skip Iowa Straw Poll
  
• John Deeth Blog: Rudy, McCain Bail On Ames Buy A Vote Straw Poll
  
• On The Campaign Trail: We're outta here
  
• The Real Sporer: Rudy and John and Fred! Oh my!
  
• Iowans for Romney: Rudy Giuliani will skip Iowa, no show at the Straw Poll
  
• Iowa Independent: Giuliani to skip Iowa GOP Straw Poll
• Iowa Independent: McCain Follows Giuliani's Lead
  
• Essential Estrogen: McCain, Giuliani Disparage Straw Poll
  
• State 29: I've Seen The Future, And It Isn't A Bald-Headed Drag Queen From New York
  
• Iowa Insider: Giuliani, McCain back out of Iowa straw poll
  
• Back roads to the White House: The straw men
  
• Radio Iowa blog: Republican Party of Iowa reacts
  
• Radio Iowa blog: "Ringmaster" Romney reaps reward
  
• Radio Iowa blog: Giuliani will not participate in Straw Poll
  
• Politically Speaking: Giuliani gripes, and McCain misses too
  

Labels: John_McCain, Mitt_Romney, RPI, Rudy_Giuliani, straw_poll

This new poll at Strategic Vision shows Mitt Romney leading in Iowa with 20%. Everyone who reads this site knows I'm very skeptical when it comes to polls, but I have said, time and time again, that when you get a bunch of polls showing you the same thing, then you can start to plot a trend. I think we've established the trend. The question is, though, what is his real margin? We've seen a poll with him at 30%, one showing him at 19%, and now this one showing him at 20%. Real Clear Politics has Romney leading Iowa at 21.3% (that's his average across several polls). But Giuliani still leads across the nation, with an average of 27.4% across seven different polls. So clearly, Romney leading in Iowa isn't helping him in other places. I have to admit, and I've said so in a couple of other posts, that I have been leaning slightly towards Romney*. He's been explaining his "flip-flops" mostly to my satisfaction, and that will go a long way for most conservative voters. Whether or not it will be enough, I'm not sure.

Labels: Mitt_Romney, polling, Rudy_Giuliani

The Des Moines Register has a new poll out showing Mitt Romney with a double-digit lead over McCain and Giuliani. Romney has 30%, McCain has 18%, and Rudy has 17%. The recent Zogby poll, I must point out, shows the race a lot closer. Which goes back to what I always say: take every poll you look at with a grain of salt. ... On a side note, take a look (on both polls) at Ron Paul. Notice anything? Yeah, he's not even registering. Even Kucinich, the biggest nutjob on the left in the race, is posting some numbers, so that really says a lot about how much real support Ron Paul has in the real world. ... The only people that are paying attention to Ron Paul are the people on the left…which Sullivan clearly is these days. They think he's the REAL face of conservatism in America when he's not even close. He's nothing but a parody, and a rather bad one at that, of what the left thinks conservatives are and what they believe.

Labels: Dennis_Kucinich, John_McCain, Mitt_Romney, Ron Paul, Rudy_Giuliani

... Fox asked much harder questions and allowed the candidates to go at it. We, the Republican voters, are adults and we should demand far more of this and far less of the commercials, the stump speeches etc…. Nothing instructs like dialogue. It also makes the Democrats look like the intellectual cowards that they have become. ... we're going to rate each debater on a scale of 1-30.
Sam Brownback ... 1st debate/25 2nd debate/21;
Jim Gilmore ... 1st debate/24 2nd debate/21;
Rudy Giuliani ... 1st debate/21 2nd debate/27;
Mike Huckabee ... 1st debate/25 2nd debate/27;
Duncan Hunter ... 1st debate/23 2nd debate/24;
John McCain ... 1st debate/23 2nd debate/24;
Ron Paul ... 1st debate/21 2nd debate/20;
Mitt Romney ... 1st debate/25 2nd debate/24;
Tom Tancredo ... 1st debate/21 2nd debate/22;
Tommy Thompson ... 1st debate/21 2nd debate/21.

Labels: Duncan_Hunter, Jim_Gilmore, John_McCain, Mike_Huckabee, Mitt_Romney, Ron Paul, Rudy_Giuliani, Sam_Brownback, Tom_Tancredo, Tommy_Thompson

Tonights Republican debate was a lot better than the last one. The questions were better and the crowd was more involved. Here are some thoughts I jotted down during the debate...
* Everytime I see Mike Huckabee, I wonder why he isn't gaining any traction. His counter to Rudy on abortion was clear and a lot better than Brownback's simplistic attempt.
* I think Rudy Giuliani won because of him interjecting on Paul's comment, even though I think Paul had an important point.
* Tancredo did pretty well. His line about people should have conversions on the road to Damascus and not on the road to Des Moines got a loud ovation and was a clear shot at McCain, Rudy, and multiple choice Mitt.
* I think Gilmore, Brownback, Tommy Thompson, and Hunter should drop out. Hunter might have some credibility on immigration, but is overshadowed by Tancredo.

Labels: Duncan_Hunter, Jim_Gilmore, John_McCain, Mike_Huckabee, Mitt_Romney, Rudy_Giuliani, Sam_Brownback, Tom_Tancredo, Tommy_Thompson

Greg Sargent had a great catch today at his TPM political blog Horse's Mouth. He spotted an amazing article in the Journal-Eureka, based in Anamosa, Iowa (Jones County). I would link to the original article, but the newspaper's site appears to have crashed from all the attention Sargent's piece generated. Click through to read Sargent's account, but here is the short version: Deb VonSprecken, who farms with her husband, donated to Giuliani and got a call from his campaign asking if they would host an event for him at their farm. They were excited and started preparing the event. Then they were asked to call Giuliani's campaign office in New York, where someone asked about their assets. They own a small farm. Afterwards, Tony Delgado at Giuliani's Des Moines office allegedly told Deb VanSprecken, "I'm sorry, you aren't worth a million dollars and he is campaigning on the Death Tax right now."

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

... When any two kampaigns visit the same kommunity on the same day, people are going to kompare the events, especially when the events are in Iowa's second largest city. Tommy Thompson had 150 at his event, while the presumed frontrunner, Rudy Giuliani only had around 100. Rudy's poor showing is a good example of the problems he is having in Iowa. ... Rudy's problems in Iowa have nothing to do with his pro-choice stance on abortion; instead it has everything to do with the staff on the ground here in Iowa, and the level of kommitment to Iowa from the folks in New York that are calling the shots. Now, I'm not slamming the Giuliani Iowa staff. They have some good people in the state, but a caucus kampaign requires a large staff with caucus experience and that's where they are lacking.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani, Tommy_Thompson

If it's not bad enough to front load the nomination kalendar, the media outlets are just adding fuel to the fire by having these early debates. I'm afraid to think how many debate threads I'll have to post between now and the Iowa Caucus. Here is the problem with early debates; none of the kandidates and especially the frontrunners will say anything of any substance this early, unless they're getting their butt kicked already. Frontrunners tend to avoid konfrontation, give politically korrect answers, and avoid nailing down their policy on most any topic. On to the debate, I thought Chris Matthews did a great job, much better than Brian Williams did with the Democrats last week. Maybe Matthews and MSNBC used the days between the two events to improve on the first debate. I'd like to do winners and losers but I don't think anyone walked away with a victory last night. So here is a list of disappointments. Sam Brownback: Someone wake me up when he is done speaking. The guy just lacks energy. He could give the best answers of the night but it will not register with me because I was probably getting popcorn, checking my email or taking a nap while he talks.

Labels: John_McCain, Mitt_Romney, Rudy_Giuliani, Sam_Brownback

Marlene Elwell Leaves McCain Kampaign: Marlene Elwell, the leading social konservative on the McCain presidential team has parted ways with the kampaign. The loss is a blow to the McCain kampaign that needs to reach out to social konservatives in Iowa and South Carolina. If her leaving wasn't bad enough, the timing is absolutely terrible. McCain is on day two of his official presidential announcement tour and the last thing the kampaign needed is a story like this. Elwell made he name in politics in 1988 with the Pat Robertson kampaign, and has strong ties with the leading social konservative organizers in Iowa. Leaving one kampaign for another isn't new for her either. In 1996 Elwell left the Buchanan kampaign for Bob Dole's kampaign early on. It will be interesting to see where she lands. There is no doubt in my mind that she will end up on another kampaign soon. I’m sure the Romney folks have already called, but maybe she is holding off for someone like Fred Thompson. Whoever wants her services better have deep pockets, FEC reports show that she brought in 25K in Feb 07 on the McCain kampaign.

Labels: John_McCain, Rudy_Giuliani

Here's some unsolicited advice for Rudy Giuliani: Either get into Iowa and go balls to the wall until the caucuses or skip it all together. If you want to come in and tip toe around the state, talking like a candidate but not really acting like one then if I were you I would save myself the trouble and just skip the state altogether. There is no upside to being a part time kandidate in Iowa and here's why: It's a caucus state, not a primary state. I've talked about this several times. Turning out for a caucus is not the same as turning out for a primary. Kandidates need motivated supporters in addition to putting forth a massive staff effort leading up to the caucuses to identify and train caucus attendees. This task will be especially important for Rudy because he should attract more non-traditional caucus attendees who are unfamiliar or intimidated with the process. Why do so many pundits, media and analysts put so much stock in the straw poll? Because it is the best indicator of organizational success. The straw poll is the world's best caucus dress rehearsal. I don't think Rudy will be able to successfully turn out to the caucuses if his campaign won't participate in the straw poll.

Labels: caucus, Rudy_Giuliani

... I'd have to say that Romney was the clear winner at this event. He had a strong message, a great speech, and he delivered it like a pro. John McCain showed himself to be a one-issue candidate, in my opinion. Yes, Iraq is important, but by the time we hold elections in 2008, Iraq very well may be off the table. What will he campaign on then? Rudy…well, as I said, this wasn't a great speech, and it wasn't delivered all that well. Just seemed like he was taking a "yeah, I'll serve if you elect me, but I could really care less" approach. We don't need a person running whose sole ambition in life is to be President, of course, but we do want someone running who clearly wants the job…and Rudy just seemed (at this event, anyway) like a man just going through the motions because people expect him to.

Labels: John_McCain, Mitt_Romney, RPI, Rudy_Giuliani

... First to speak was Rudy Giuliani. He is fiscally conservative and has a great record as mayor for decreasing crime in New York. The man may put an R after his name but his personal life has too many skeletons for all but the most moderate conservative voter. .. John Cox was next. ... I've had the opportunity to meet John a few times and I really think a common sense business-like approach is what we need in Washington. And I really hope that whoever does win the nomination puts this guy somewhere in their cabinet. ... The final speaker before dinner was Governor Mike Huckabee from Arkansas. ... I'm all about lower taxes and liked the speech but I don't think Huckabee is the man for the job. ... Congressman Tom Tancredo from Colorado was next. ... And while I agree with him I think he is too harsh for a lot of people. ... I've met Governor Gilmore on a few occasions and have found him to be a very firm candidate. Unfortunately he seemed very mean-spirited. ... With a strong focus on family values, good manners and courtesy I really think (Brownback) can be trusted. ... And next, Tommy Thompson from Wisconsin. ... After hearing him I really think he is a strong candidate. ... He really believes in giving people a chance, be it through school choice or job training. ... And, finally, Senator John McCain. ... He was the only speaker to roam the stage and talked to the audience as "friends". He's incredibly likeable. And intelligent. And funny. And not the guy. I like him, but he's not the guy.

Labels: Jim_Gilmore, John_Cox, John_McCain, Mike_Huckabee, Rudy_Giuliani, Tom_Tancredo, Tommy_Thompson

Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani is asking for a truce with conservatives over abortion. Good luck. "On abortion, I think we should respect each other," the former New York mayor told about 50 Iowans Saturday afternoon at a Des Moines restaurant. "Our party has to get beyond issues like that." Giuliani is a pro-choice candidate seeking the nomination of an overwhelmingly pro-life party. ... nearly all of the other eight Republican White House hopefuls who spoke did mention it, over and over again. They know Giuliani leads in early polls. They think the life issue — and broader questions about his conservative street cred — could be his Achilles' heel around these parts. ... he believes that even Republicans who strongly disagree with him will give him credit for his unwavering honesty. That's in contrast to Romney, who is catching brimstone for being a former pro-choicer and current flip-flopper.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

Tom Tancredo is running ads on the Randy Renshaw show that is all about…IMMIGRATION (surprise). The most interesting part, "John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney all support amnesty." Slam. Also Fred Thompson is clearly thinking about running. Why else would you make an announcement about your lymphoma?

Labels: Fred Thompson, John_McCain, Mitt_Romney, Rudy_Giuliani, Tom_Tancredo

Conservatives, don't ignore McCain - Los Angeles Times: "...By any measure, Rudy Giuliani is the more liberal candidate — indeed, the most liberal serious candidate Republicans have fielded in decades. But because Giuliani made the right enemies — chief among them those vexatious New York Times editors — conservatives respect him, even though they disagree with him on almost everything. And they give the cold shoulder to McCain, who agrees with them on most of the important things." Like what ?! Yes, McCain has been pro-life from way back when, but that's it. The man never met a tax cut he liked, so he's out on economic issues unlike Giuliani. McCain mocked and showed his obvious hatred for "evangelicals" (read : Christians) unlike Giuliani. Unlike Giuliani, McCain does possess the sixth most Liberal voting record in the Senate. Guiliani didn't give us McCain-Feingold

Labels: John_McCain, Rudy_Giuliani

There is never a week that goes by where a presidential kandidate isn't somewhere in the Iowa. That said; it looks like there is some unspoken rule that says if your running for president you must squeeze in an Iowa trip right before Easter. Maybe they are picking up an Easter Ham, or maybe there is some special on peeps I don't know about. Next Tuesday Rudy Giuliani comes to Iowa for his first presidential kampaign event, his Des Moines visit will be covered by all the major media outlets. What I find odd is that Mitt Romney and Tommy Thompson will be coming to town the next day, and Thompson is announcing his kandidacy when he comes to town. I don't know whether Thompson's announcement koming on the heels of Rudy's first Iowa visit is brilliant or stupid. Maybe Grubbs & Ko realize that its difficult for their kandidate to generate national press koverage, so by piggybacking off of Rudy's event Thompson might be able steal a few lines in all Rudy's earned media.

Labels: Mitt_Romney, Rudy_Giuliani, Tommy_Thompson

Is Rudolph Giuliani thinking about skipping the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses next year? He just might be. On Monday, after a campaign seminar at Harvard University, Giuliani campaign chief Mike DuHaime refused to commit his candidate to competing in the Iowa contest, which officially kicks off the race for the GOP nomination on Jan. 14, 2008. Then yesterday, Giuliani's campaign announced he would indeed make an Iowa swing in April – announcing his travel plans a full month in advance in a bid to head off a spate of Rudy-skips-Iowa stories. ... Giuliani might decide he doesn't want to take his chances with Iowa Republicans who tend to be strong religious conservatives. If so, he'd be betting that the emergence of a mega-primary day on Feb. 5, 2008 – where Giuliani could do well in states like New Jersey, California and Florida – would diminish the importance of Iowa anyway.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

After a pretty reasonable blog post on Vilsack's exit from the race, Yepsen's column today on the same subject is back to his classic form. ... "Why didn't he take off? ... It's the first election since 9/11 in which the country must select a new president, and Americans seem to be be looking for a president with experience in national security or on a broader world stage - not a state capitol." ... So Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani has a lot of national security experience? Other than standing on some rubble on 9/11, the guy has no more (and probably much less) experience than any Governor. And Yepsen can dismiss Mitt Romney, but most Republicans consider him to be a serious contender. While Bill Richardson is not in the top tier of Presidential candidates (yet), it's not like the combined fourteen years total of the three frontrunners shows some dominant foreign policy experience.

Labels: Bill_Richardson, Mitt_Romney, Rudy_Giuliani, Tom_Vilsack

The Cooler staff would like to pass along a rumor that has come to our attention. Supposedly former RNC Early Vote/Absentee Ballot director Tony Delgado will manage Rudy Giuliani's campaign in Iowa. In addition KC Jones will be the regional political director that oversees the state. ... A number of Iowa activists with ties to Jones have said they've received calls from her in the past week regarding Mayor Giuliani's campaign.

Labels: Rudy_Giuliani

With the caucus kampaigns now upon us, I thought now would be a good time to breakout the Power Rankings. I'm only going to rank the top five because after that there isn't much difference between the candidates. I think you will all be surprised to see that my breakout candidate of 2007, Mike Huckabee is not on the list. I took a lot of heat when I named Huckabee my breakout kandidate, and while it's very early and there is plenty of time to campaign in the state, I'm starting to wonder if Iowa is a priority for the Huckabee campaign.

Labels: John_McCain, Mike_Huckabee, Mitt_Romney, Rudy_Giuliani, Tommy_Thompson

Here's our reaction to our good friend Jonathan Martin's article The Iowa Test that we tried to post this morning. Huckabee acknowledges in the article that Iowa is going to be his largest test, going so far as to say that he needs one of the mythical 3 tickets out. ... This quote sparked a discussion around Cooler HQ this morning. Which candidate in the race is most capable of sustaining a severe blow here in the Hawkeye state. Obviously the answer is not Huckabee or Brownback. Both are supremely aware that all their eggs lie in the Iowa basket. ... Our first instinct was Rudy. Everyone agreed. Then as we delved deeper it became apparent that Iowa will probably be more important to Rudy than anyone else. ... McCain and Romney on the other hand both have organizations in NH, SC, and are building them nationwide. This will help them recover if they have an unsuccessful caucus night.

Labels: John_McCain, Mike_Huckabee, Mitt_Romney, Rudy_Giuliani, Sam_Brownback