IowaPolitics.com BlogWatch

"Love you back," Barack Obama invariably says near the beginning of
each speech, when someone from the crowd shouts "We love you." Barack
Obama loves Iowa back. The Jan. 3 caucus winner is in Des Moines
tonight to mark what he's not quite calling a clinch of the Democratic
presidential nomination. The Obama near-win bodes well for Iowa
keeping its first in the nation status. But on the Republican side,
John McCain's nomination makes the situation a little cloudier. John
McCain's relationship with Iowa has been testy. He skipped the state
in his 2000 run, with a few jabs at the caucuses and ethanol on the
side. In 2008, he made a partial effort but concentrated on New
Hampshire and other early states.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus, John_McCain

Where did Hillary's inevitable coronation become a donnybrook? Her
stately campaign-march to Denver an anything-goes Mad Max
fender-bender? Her unquestioned entitlement an increasingly impossible
slog through Obama lands? It's Iowa.... Iowa.... as in "Where did the
tables turn?" where Roger Simon of Politico autopsies Hillary
Clinton's presidential campaign. As Simon dissects the remains of
Hillary's once unassailable nomination, he names the main cause of the
demise of her White House hopes, "Iowa is where Clinton needed to
strangle the Barack Obama campaign in its crib."

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus, Hillary_Clinton

Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Stewart Iverson today praised the
Republican National Committee's rules committee for passing what's
called the "Ohio Plan," which would keep Iowa first in the
presidential nominating process. The plan, passed this morning in
Albuquerque at a meeting of the Republican Rules Committee, would
retain the lead-off roles for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and
Nevada, and rotate remaining states on a quadrennial basis. Iverson
says this is the first significant step for Iowa's effort to keep its
first-in-the-nation role in the presidential nominating process.

Labels: caucus, caucus dates, RPI

With the latest solutions to the Democratic Party's Michigan-Florida
dilemma hinging on the national popular vote totals, here's an
intriguing possibility: Will we finally see the top-secret raw vote
totals from the Iowa caucuses? The most recent plans to divvy up the
delegations from the calendar-violating states factor in the national
popular vote, mostly to make up for Obama not being on the Michigan
ballot. Rep. Bart Stupak, the congressman from the Upper Peninsula,
has one such plan. He's got no horse in the race; as a former John
Edwards supporter, Stupak is an uncommitted superdelegate. He proposes
seating 83 Michigan delegates on a split roughly mirroring the Jan. 15
primary results, assuming that the bulk of the uncommitted vote was
from Obama backers.

Labels: caucus

The actual count of Iowa's elected Democratic national delegates is
Obama zero, Clinton zero, Edwards zero. Iowa won't elect any national
convention delegates for six weeks. But you wouldn't know it from the
national press coverage of Saturday's county conventions. Most reports
at least implied that the national convention delegates have already
been chosen, and that Edwards national delegates were switching their
support to Obama. Here's what actually happened Saturday. The county
convention delegates elected on caucus night met and elected delegates
to the congressional district and state conventions (the same pool of
people go to both). Most of the national delegates are elected at the
April 26 congressional district conventions; the rest are elected at
the state convention June 14.

Labels: caucus

Someday, Iowans may look back on the election returns from March 4, 2008, and remember that as the day the caucuses died. It's as if at each step of the way, at each opportunity for Barack Obama to clinch the nomination, Democrats are saying," no, we want more time, we want everyone to have their say." The price of peace in this dead-heat battle may be comprehensive nomination reform. The living room meet-and-greets of Iowa tradition may vanish, replaced by tarmac rallies at the Des Moines Airport. The Obama-Clinton fight may go down as the Florida 2000 of nomination politics, with the margin of victory smaller than the margin of error.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus, Hillary_Clinton

The Iowa Caucuses were more than a month ago. And, no, I still haven't
recovered. But I found two Iowans this week who don't see to want to
move on yet either. Tim Albrecht served as Mitt Romney's Iowa
Communications Director. He's one of the favorites of Iowa reporters,
much like he was during his time in a similar role for then-House
Majority Leader and, later, Speaker of the House Christopher Rants. I
forgot to ask Tim his title these days, but he's traveling the country
with Romney. I talked to him right before he jumped on a plane for a
late add to the schedule. He (and Romney) had already started their
day at the Pancake Pantry (my kind of place) in Nashville in the a.m.
and then moved on to Atlanta.

Labels: caucus, Mitt_Romney

With all the practice, I think I could type the phrase 'Iowa caucuses'
in .01201 of a second by the time Jan. 3 arrived. Now the political
world is looking with some anticipation to Feb. 9, when the Nebraska
caucuses will have heft. The caucuses will be held by Nebraska
Democrats, while long after the GOP presidential candidate is settled,
Nebraska Republicans will weigh in at the May 13 primary. I'm finally
typing the phrase Nebraska caucuses this week. The expectation is that
Super Tuesday tomorrow, in which voters in 22 states (including
Minnesota) will express presidential preferences, may not settle the
race, so the caucuses will be important. Last week Barack Obama began
airing ads in post-Super Tuesday states, with Nebraska among them.

Labels: caucus

Anyone heard Hillary Clinton complaining about the caucus process
since she, maybe, won Nevada? Class? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Maybe
process matters less than result -- or location. The relative
bumpiness of the first-ever Nevada caucuses, where the candidates
can't even agree on who won, makes a counter-intuitive good case for
Iowa's process and first place. The neighborhood meeting process is
part of what's important about Iowa, sure. But what's more important
is the nature of Iowa: established, rooted, and civically engaged. The
political upside of our slow growth is an electorate which knows its
way around the block.

Labels: caucus, Hillary_Clinton

It's one of those rare days when I largely agree with David Yepsen's
latest column: Parties must probe caucus complaints, make fixes. He
points out that any problems with the way the caucuses were run will
be fodder for those who will try to deprive Iowa of
first-in-the-nation status for the next campaign. Already the
Republican Party will be looking to ditch Iowa, because the GOP
establishment can't stand Mike Huckabee. If Hillary Clinton becomes
the Democratic nominee and wins, or if Barack Obama becomes the
Democratic nominee and loses, the Democratic Party establishment will
also have the knives out for Iowa.

Labels: caucus

Labels: caucus

Many African-Americans across Iowa said determination and excitement is driving them to participate for the first time in tonight's Iowa caucuses. "Black people -- this is our opportunity to step up to the plate," said Melvin Hawkins, a 45-year-old disc jockey from Davenport and a first-time caucus-goer. Blacks in Des Moines, Waterloo and Davenport said they felt compelled to learn about a political process that is still somewhat mysterious to them -- and participate tonight -- because they feel strongly about presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus

Unless there's an unprecedented upset and Duncan Hunter and Mike Gravel win the Iowa caucuses tonight, I've seen the next president speak. And unless it's Rudy Giuliani, I've spoken to her or him in person, however briefly. I've been interviewed live on C-SPAN, Googled by campaigns, shown up on the front page of one of the home town papers, had my headwear praised by Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd, and had hundreds of people a day pay attention to my opinion on the whole thing. And even more incredibly, I've gotten paid to do it.

Labels: caucus

Labels: caucus

Latest Iowa Poll Shows Obama Lead, But Don't Get Fooled... The latest
Des Moines Register poll shows a widening lead for Barack Obama, and
will be the last poll released by the Register before the Iowa Caucus.
It is undoubtedly good news for the Obama campaign, but it is also a
cautionary tale. AT THIS TIME IN 2004, Howard Dean was polling number
one. By caucus night, he came in a dismal third place and was out of
the race little more than a month later. Obama's situation is much the
same. Obama's support is what's known in campaign circles as "soft
support." His supporters are mostly under 35, the group that is most
likely not to caucus.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus

For those who have followed the polls over the course of this
election, it may be a relief to know the final numbers on January 3rd.
Many dozens of polls have been taken, often showing results ten
percentage points or more away from the poll taken next. Pollsters
call voters in Iowa and NH three or four times a day. Campaigns add to
the telephone traffic. The Obama campaign has made 1.6 million phone
calls in New Hampshire, which has a total population of 1.3 million
people. But as the election has gotten closer and the media coverage
become more intense, the polls have swung even more wildly.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus

Since the Iowa Democratic caucuses are a representative democracy, not a straight one person one vote, not every caucus goer carries equal weight. Presidential candidates are spending a lot of time in small courthouse towns, because the way the results are counted, the small counties weigh in disproportionately. An analysis of 2004 caucus attendance shows that, on average statewide, it took just under 41 caucus goers to elect a state delegate equivalent. The easiest county to elect a delegate was Fremont County, where 22.3 caucus goers translated into a state delegate.

Labels: caucus

Special report: Last in three parts. And so, it comes down to this: Why Iowa? What makes these average Iowans so important? Who gave them all the power? And what is the power? It's the power to make future presidents beg. The final installment of our three-part series examines the everyday people who get extraordinary attention during the run-up to Iowa precinct caucuses.

Labels: caucus

In a recent New York Times piece, several veteran Iowa journalists
label the Iowa Democratic Party's nomination process "The Undemocratic
Caucuses" and argue that the press should press the Democratic Party
vigorously for the release of the first round vote totals. In our
quadrennial Iowa civics lesson, we're reminded that the Democrats
report delegate totals, not vote counts. That's not good enough for
Gilbert Cranberg, former editor of the editorial page of The Des
Moines Register...

Labels: caucus

With the Iowa Caucuses now a mere eight days away, it is certain that
we will receive many more phone calls like the one we received on
Christmas Eve that begins with - Them: Hi, I'm Suzy Sunshine and I'm a
volunteer for Senator Parasite. Do you know who you'll be caucusing
for? Me: John Edwards Them: John Edwards? Did you know that Senator
Parasite is for free chocolate and eternal youth? John Edwards voted
against free chocolate. Me: Well, that is something to consider, but
I'm still committed to John Edwards. Them: Can you tell me why?

Labels: caucus, John_Edwards

In his column for the Des Moines Register on Tuesday, David Yepsen repeated assertions he made on his blog not long ago, implying that the Obama campaign is somehow not playing fair because they are encouraging students at Iowa colleges to return to campus for the January 3 caucuses. As I've written before, the right of students at Iowa colleges to caucus is well-established. Mike Connery goes into more detail about why Yepsen is wrong here. He notes that several rival campaigns have jumped at the chance to imply Obama is cheating in Iowa.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus

Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Hillary Clinton have all released caucus training videos for the Iowa Caucuses. Obama has also released a Nevada Caucus training video. Each video has its strengths and weaknesses, and here I'm going to use my subjective rating system and rate each of the three videos in four categories, Creativity, New Media Savvy, Effectiveness and how informative is it. One video, in my opinion, stood out as being the best by far - read below to see which one it was.

Labels: Barack_Obama, caucus, Hillary_Clinton, John_Edwards

Democrats spend a great deal of time messaging that they believe in
counting every vote. The pain of the hanging chads still burns in
their hearts, and the battle over photo ID's to vote looms. Which is
why it's so disconcerting to see operatives for Hillary Clinton and
Chris Dodd attacking Barack Obama for encouraging students to caucus.
Sure, there's an advantage for Obama in encouraging kids from Illinois
who go to school in Iowa. Why do you think he's pushing it? For the
same reason Hillary Clinton is pushing casserole recipes at busy moms
and Chris Dodd is campaigning with firefighters. There's votes in it.

Labels: caucus

A well-publicized study published yesterday by the sociology
department shows that college students (at least here at Iowa State)
are likely to caucus in higher numbers on January 3. The results of
this survey are interesting. I remember sending in my responses so
this study is of personal interest to me. This survey, administered
through e-mail, was returned by 2,185 students and it showed that 73
percent of the students were registered to vote and it showed that of
those 73 percent, 53 percent of those are planning to caucus.

Labels: caucus

If there is one thing I've realized after starting a blog, it's that
you get a lot of e-mails from people, both positive and negative, and
you get a lot of interesting ideas that you don't often think about
right away. Recently, I received an e-mail from someone who was
wondering what I thought about the caucus time here in Iowa. Now, I'm
not actually talking about the date. I'm talking about the time on
that particular date. Sure, we've experienced a hearty debate over
such topics as college student turnout (it's over break), whether it
conflicts with the Orange Bowl, whether an alternative date would be a
bad choice for the practicing Jewish community, and the list goes on.
There's been much ado about the date, but what about the time?

Labels: caucus, caucus dates

Iowa City is holding a referendum on November 6 over whether to
continue to allow people aged 19 and 20 to visit bars. Opponents of
underage drinking are fighting to pass the referendum, underaged
drinkers, specifically University of Iowa students, are getting
mobilized to oppose it (as is every bar owner within a mile of the Ped
Mall.) Since this is in Iowa, there has already been an obligatory
piece wondering about the effect this might have in the caucuses. In
an article on Slate, Christopher Beam seems to think that this is good
for Barack Obama because students will be registered in time for the
caucuses. Beam neglects the two important facts. First and most
importantly, Beam doesn't realize that you can register at the
caucuses.

Labels: caucus, University of Iowa

In a long-expected move, the Executive Committee of the Republican
Committee voted Monday to strip half the delegates from five states
that moved their primaries up beyond a start date of Feb. 5. But even
though the Iowa GOP jumped from Jan. 14 to Jan. 3, they won't be
penalized, because the presidential vote at the Iowa Republican caucus
is non-binding, the AP reports. Iowa Republican caucus goers vote at a
"straw poll" and then later in the evening select the county
convention delegates who ultimately choose state and national
delegates. The results of the delegate vote are not connected to the
votes in the presidential straw poll.

Labels: caucus

Chris Dodd, profile in courage, has had his communications director Hari Sevugan issue the following statement regarding the Michigan primary: "We are committed to the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire going first, and we signed the four-state pledge to hopefully prevail upon the DNC and the state parties to add clarity to that situation. However, it does not benefit any of us if we are the nominee to pull our name off the ballot and slight Michigan voters." Compare this with the statement Dodd himself made on August 31, 2007: "I believe that Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada offer a cross-section of America and allow for voters to probe the experience and vision of candidates in a meaningful way," said Dodd. "In this year, where the national media focus seems to be on celebrity and bank accounts, the role of these states is more important than ever. I am committed to the DNC nominating calendar and preserving the first-in-the-nation status of Iowa and New Hampshire."

Labels: caucus, Chris_Dodd

Ross Kaminsky as an interesting piece at Real Clear Politics on the
influence of Iowa and New Hampshire. Kaminsky argues that Iowa and New
Hampshire is loosing it's influence in the primary schedule. Romney is
leading by between 10 and 15 points in both Iowa and New Hampshire,
while Giuliani is leading in a number of the February 5th states, as
well as in the national polls. Kaminsky argues that while focusing on
Iowa and New Hampshire is probably the best strategy for Romney, in
the end it won't help him with the nomination because the compact
schedule will prevent him from gaining on any momentum in the later
states (particularly the February 5th states) where Giuliani has a
good hold. While I think that Kaminsky is on to something, and indeed
I pretty much agree that the nomination will come down to a question
of strategy, I still wonder.

Labels: caucus

.. With more committed supporters than any presidential campaign at this stage in the game, the Caucus for Priorities Project is celebrating another major milestone: 5,000 pledges. Throughout the state, people are putting their Priorities first when it comes to who they will support in January 2008. ... Pledgers promise to attend their precinct Caucus and back a candidate who supports a significant shift in federal spending away from wasteful Pentagon spending toward other priorities such as education, health care, job training, renewable energy development, and deficit reduction.

Labels: caucus

It is alive! Those who were around Iowa in 2004 may remember the First in the Nation web site put together by the Iowa Department of Economic Development: IowaCaucus.org. Yup, someone took the old girl into the back room, fluffed up her dress, applied some new war paint and sent her back out to the greeting line. This morning Gov. Chet Culver's office announced the launch of the site, now dubbed "Iowa Caucus 2008: First in the Nation." It will once again serve as a statewide, non-partisan resource for news media, campaign staff and the public on the caucus, Iowa quality of life and something called "Iowa's new economy." Iowa ranks 'first in the nation' in the production of ethanol, E-85 and biodiesel fuels, and is third in wind energy production. The state was also ranked first by Forbes Magazine in overall quality of life. "The Iowa Caucuses give us an opportunity to showcase the state's strengths on a world stage," Culver said in a released statement.

Labels: caucus

Here's some unsolicited advice for Rudy Giuliani: Either get into Iowa and go balls to the wall until the caucuses or skip it all together. If you want to come in and tip toe around the state, talking like a candidate but not really acting like one then if I were you I would save myself the trouble and just skip the state altogether. There is no upside to being a part time kandidate in Iowa and here's why: It's a caucus state, not a primary state. I've talked about this several times. Turning out for a caucus is not the same as turning out for a primary. Kandidates need motivated supporters in addition to putting forth a massive staff effort leading up to the caucuses to identify and train caucus attendees. This task will be especially important for Rudy because he should attract more non-traditional caucus attendees who are unfamiliar or intimidated with the process. Why do so many pundits, media and analysts put so much stock in the straw poll? Because it is the best indicator of organizational success. The straw poll is the world's best caucus dress rehearsal. I don't think Rudy will be able to successfully turn out to the caucuses if his campaign won't participate in the straw poll.

Labels: caucus, Rudy_Giuliani

Many people have taken the 2004 Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary results as proof positive that the candidate winning here will develop enough momentum to carry him or her through the entire nominating process. While that obviously happened with John Kerry's dramatic turnaround in New Hampshire following his win here, it is by no means a rule. Historically, Iowa and New Hampshire have almost always differed in their choices. Not counting sitting Presidents or Vice Presidents, Jimmy Carter was the last time that Iowa and New Hampshire agreed on anyone for either Democrats or Republicans (and technically Iowa voted for Undeclared over Carter). If anyone other than Kerry had won the Iowa caucus in 2004, that streak would almost certainly have remained intact. No, what 2004 taught us was that soft support in New Hampshire never really goes away.

Labels: caucus

... I should say that before I moved to Iowa for college four years ago, I shared the opinion that the importance of the caucuses is unjustifiable, and that a national primary would be more democratic. Then I experienced the caucuses (in 2004), and I changed my mind. ... The caucus system (according to our own Geraldine) "favors the old over the young, the rural over the urban, Western Iowa over Eastern Iowa." Why is this wrong? Well, while the caucus system seems to create inequalities on the surface, it can compensate for deeper inequalities. ... here's a question nobody has asked: what is the harm in giving Iowa's downtrodden rural hamlets and agricultural areas a little attention from the rest of the country every four years? ... At the end of the day, Keokuk and Grundy still represent a tiny fraction of the total delegates needed to win, and putting on events and doing GOTV work is easier and far more efficient in urban areas like Des Moines and Cedar Rapids.

Labels: caucus

Many Iowans have grown accustomed to meeting each of the candidates before they decide who they will support during their precinct caucus. The "rock star" status some of the candidates hold makes a house party or coffee shop meeting unlikely this caucus season for many Iowans. That's why Iowans for Sensible Priorities launched a candidate calendar and bird-dogging blog as part of the organization's effort to find out where each of the candidates stand on issues related to the federal budget. The calendar allows users to look at both Republican and Democratic events and sort them by candidate, city, or date. Go to sensibleiowans.org/birddog_calendar.php to view the calendar.

Labels: caucus

In 2004, 122,193 people attended the Democratic Precinct Caucuses to elect 3000 delegates to the State Convention. This averages out to just under 41 caucusgoers per delegate elected. However, this average wildly differed in every county. ... When one looks at the number of caucusgoers that it takes to elect a delegate in each county, there is a clear pattern. Caucusgoers in small, rural, Republican counties wield disproportionate power compared to those in more urban Democratic counties. In fact, the people who are most disadvantaged by this are students. ... It is a system that favors the old over the young, the rural over the urban, Western Iowa over Eastern Iowa. It is a method that of selecting a candidate that has a clear bias and to be successful, presidential candidates have to spend a disproportionate amount of energy on less populous rural areas.

Labels: caucus