IowaPolitics.com BlogWatch

Survey USA becomes the third pollster (after CNN/Time and Selzer and
Associates for the Des Moines Register) to find Barack Obama above 50
percent in Iowa, with a double-digit lead over John McCain. The poll
found Obama ahead 54-43 ... Yes, the Big Ten Battleground States poll
showing Obama and McCain tied in Iowa is an outlier. I'm thinking the
McCain/Palin rally in Cedar Rapids on Thursday is the last we will see
of the Republican ticket before November. We may get another visit
from Joe Biden, but I doubt Obama is going to spend any more time in
Iowa before the election either. Side note: Rob Hubler and Becky
Greenwald have to be encouraged by the news that Obama is slightly
ahead in northwest Iowa and far ahead in northeast Iowa.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain, polling

John McCain is wrapping his Cedar Rapids campaign stop, in which he
brought vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin this morning. McCain
talked about a host of issues, but yesterday in Sioux City State Sen.
Steve Warnstadt and the Iowa Democratic Party held a press conference
as a preemptive strike. Warnstadt noted McCain's opposition to ethanol
incentives for an industry that's greatly impacted the Iowa economy,
saying it's something voters need to remember. Polls have shown McCain
trailing in Iowa, and this weekend we'll release a Journal/Lee Poll
conducted through yesterday of 600 likely Iowa voters. As McCain-Palin
fight to win Iowa's seven electoral votes, it's worth noting that he
didn't win any of the 14 Northwest Iowa counties in the January Iowa
caucuses, Republicans favored other men at the time.

Labels: John_McCain, polling

The Big Ten Battleground Poll released today shows Barack Obama and
John McCain virtually tied in Iowa, with Obama at 42.7 percent and
McCain at 42 percent when leaners are not added, and Obama and McCain
both at 44.8 percent with leaners. I am not buying it. It's not just
that Selzer and Associates, which has an excellent track record in
Iowa, released a poll four days ago showing Obama ahead 52-40. It's
not just that CNN/Time released a poll two weeks ago showing Obama
ahead 55-40. It's the fact that according to a commenter at MyDD who
has dug into the methodology, the Big Ten Battleground polls did not
weight the data according to turnout projections.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain, polling

We've now had two polls conducted in Iowa showing McCain up by six or
down by 12. The problem with both of these polls is they are both done
by biased organizations. So let me just split the difference.
McCain/Palin is down by six points right now in Iowa. In 2004, polling
at this time in the election gave an average advantage to Bush over
Kerry by 3.5 points. This comparison doesn't look too good for McCain
especially when you factor in the Palin bounce that happened
everywhere, including here in Iowa. So what does this mean for Iowa
Republicans? We can't wait any longer to get out and talk to our
friends, neighbors, and families. If you are in the 1st you need to
tell them how Hartsuch and Reed are everyday Joes and will not toe the
establishment line.

Labels: polling

Victory Enterprises based in Davenport, Iowa has released the results
of its recent poll of 402 registered voters. The poll showed John
McCain with a 48% to 42% advantage over Barack Obama. A third of the
respondents were Democrat, Republican, and no party voters. The poll
stands in contrast to the Des Moines Register Poll which showed Obama
with a 12% lead over McCain. The Iowa Poll is conducted by Selzer &
Co. Inc. of Des Moines. Selzer was spot on with her final polls before
the Iowa Caucuses and the Republican Primary in Michigan. The
difference is that the VE poll chose to focus on only registered
voters, and with Iowa's new same day voter registration law in effect
they are not accounting for any participation from unregistered voters
or illegal aliens.

Labels: John_McCain, polling

The "topline" result of a national Presidential poll doesn't really
tell us much. The presidential race is won state-by-state through the
electoral college. But national media organizations don't have the
money to poll each state individually. So they do a national poll and
report the top line -- who is leading whom. However, you CAN learn
some things by studying the "crosstabs" -- the internal numbers broken
down by demographic group. And they aren't good for Obama -- his
enormous lead among crucial independent voters has dropped from 22
points to THREE. Obama only has a 44 to 40 edge in who is better to
handle the economy -- and is tied on that issue among independents.

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_McCain, polling

Congressman Leonard Boswell's campaign finally released some results
from its internal polling today. An e-mail from campaign manager Scott
Ourth said that according to a survey by Anzalone Liszt Research, 65
percent of likely primary voters would vote for Boswell. If Boswell
did win 65 percent of the vote on June 3, he would do slightly better
than 8-year incumbent Jane Harman did in the 2006 primary to represent
California's 36th district. Harman, who like Boswell was backed by
pretty much the whole state Democratic Party establishment, defeated
peace activist Marcy Winograd by 62.4 percent to 37.5 percent. The
e-mail from the Boswell campaign did not contain details such as:
which days the poll was in the field; the number of respondents
surveyed; what criteria were used to code a respondent as a likely
voter...

Labels: Ed_Fallon, Leonard_Boswell, polling

Barack Obama is maintaining his lead over Hillary Clinton in Iowa
Electronic Market (IEM) trading on the eve of the Pennsylvania
Democratic primary. As of 9:00 Monday morning, Obama shares were
trading at 75 cents, meaning traders give the Illinois senator a 75
percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. Clinton shares were
going for 21 cents. Obama has held the lead since Super Tuesday on
Feb. 5. In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy
and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real
money. Nomination markets are winner-take-all; winning shares pay a
dollar and losing shares are worthless.

Labels: polling

I had been meaning to write a quick post about this but have been very busy as of late. Guv Lug is starting to run into some serious turbulence just 15 months into his term as Governor according to numbers released late last week by SurveyUSA. Culver has a 49 percent DISAPPROVAL rating and a 48 percent approval rating. Clearly, many Iowans are starting to grow weary of his big government ways. I would love to see some new numbers in a few weeks after this advertisement has had a chance to really take its full affect. Starting in 2009, when our candidate(s) for Governor get their campaigns underway, they will have plenty to run against. We just need to keep the pressure on.

Labels: Chet_Culver, polling

Earlier today someone called asking for my husband (mispronouncing his
name). I offered to take a message, and she said she'd call back
later. She called back during dinner. We took the call, and once he
realized what kind of poll it was, my husband put it on speakerphone
so that I could listen. After the jump I've put the questions as
closely as we can remember them... Are you a registered Democrat? Yes.
How certain are you that you will participate in the Iowa caucuses on
January 3 (range of answers provided).

Labels: Barack_Obama, John_Edwards, polling

InsiderAdvantage unleashed a new poll today that shows the two-way
battle between former Governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee
tightening. It will be interesting to see whether this is an anomaly
or whether future polls will also be showing a similar trend too.
Here's the information about the poll. It looks to embody a nice sized
sample but I'm a little leery in that some of the polling was done on
Sunday. Polling on the weekends always provides a slightly more skewed
set of data. Nonetheless, the Romney campaign has to be slightly
heartened by this because for the first time in a couple weeks, the
race is within the margin of error for their candidate.

Labels: polling

Rasmussen Polling released a poll of Iowans this afternoon and the
results once again show that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is
continuing to snowball support among Iowa Republicans. The poll, which
has a sample of 789 likely GOP caucus participants, was taken SOLELY
on December 10 (yesterday). The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5
points. The last Rasmussen poll, published on November 28, showed a
much closer race.

Labels: Mike_Huckabee, polling

At 4:00PM on Saturday, I got a call from a "polling firm". It began innocously emough by asking which Dem I planned to caucus for, and I said Dodd, but then the real purpose became clear. They asked me if any of the following information would change my opinion about these three "Democrat" candidates: Clinton - she's a flip-flopper, who used to opposed ethanol, but now she supports it. Obama - voted present seven times on reproductive rights bills in the Illinois State Senate. Edwards - he's a liberal trial lawyer who wants to bring troops home from Iraq. I replied that no, their opinions didn't bother me at all. So, has anyone else gotten these calls? I live in Johnson county, and I wonder if they're going statewide.

Labels: polling

I read over at the excellent Cyclone Conservatives site that the
newest Rasmussen Poll shows Huckabee in the lead in Iowa. The poll of
likely Republican caucus-goers puts Huckabee in the lead with 28% and
Romney second with 25%. While the difference is within the poll's
margin of error, the result is significant since it is the first poll
to show Huckabee in the lead. Here are the rest of the results... The
most interesting part about this shift is that Huckabee has made gains
in the polls without having a significant organization on the ground
in Iowa.

Labels: Mike_Huckabee, polling

We are closing in on thirty days to the Iowa Caucus and its vital straw poll. However, the actual delegates for Iowa won’t be selected until next June, at the Republican State Convention. The first actual delegates will be selected by the New Hampshire primary. Now seems like a good time to project delegate numbers based on the actual rules for determining the real delegates that will cast the only real votes for the nominee. ... That leaves 971 delegates that will be determined by electoral process through February 5. Based on the current polls, and assuming normal voting patterns, Rudy should be sitting around 502, or holding about 40% of the delegates determined to that point and 52% of the non caucus/convention delegates. The remaining delegates should shake out as follows: Mitt-112; FDT-184; Huck-32; and McCain-141. While Rudy is likely to have accumulated more delegates than any one opponent, his lead over all combined is only 502-469. Those caucus/convention delegates become extremely important given such close margins.

Labels: polling

The American Research Group let loose their new numbers today and the
poll once again reinforces what we've been seeing in other polls: Iowa
is giving the former Arkansas Governor a lot of "Huckmentum" and yet
also showing that many Iowa Republicans are staying "CoMITTed" to
Governor Romney. Right now, it looks like a strong race between
Huckabee and Romney for first in Iowa and it looks like a race between
Thompson, McCain, and Giuliani for 3rd place. This begs the question,
is Huckabee's rise going to continue or is he going to be peaking too
early? Also, have Romney's numbers hit a plateau or is there a chance
that he can push them back upward?

Labels: Mike_Huckabee, Mitt_Romney, polling

Ah, push polling. Bane of the politician's existence. I have been the
target of it in every campaign I've conducted. Now, Iowa front-runner
Mitt Romney is the target in both Iowa and New Hampshire. These calls
raise the Mormon issue and Vietnam-era deferments received by Mitt
when he was a missionary. The calls all follow the same format. The
pollster asks the caller to identify who they are supporting in an
upcoming race. A few more questions may be asked to make the push poll
seem like a "real" poll. Then things get ugly. The "pollster" acts the
recipient a series of questions framed as such…

Labels: Mitt_Romney, polling

Tonight, we see that the American Research Group, a very credible
polling agency, has unleashed a new set of numbers for our fine state
and the presidential race that is fluctuating ever so much. Unlike the
ridiculous and bogus poll announced yesterday by the University of
Iowa, this poll actually has a solid methodology and a reasonable
sample size. I saw several campaigns and media organizations play up
or comment on those results yesterday and I found myself laughing out
loud and rather embarrassed for them. I think it says a lot that we
have a lot of people who fundamentally do not understand statistics or
how to recognize legitimacy in polling. Here in Iowa, that is
disappointing considering the shear quantity of political data we
become immersed in on a regular basis.

Labels: polling

A poll released Monday by the University of Iowa shows Republican Mitt
Romney growing his sizable lead among the Republican presidential
field and a close competition between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama
on the Democratic side. The poll shows Romney with support of 36.2
percent of likely GOP caucus-goers, followed by Rudy Giuliani at a
distant second place with 13.1 percent. Mike Huckabee is in third
place at 12.8 percent, a jump from August when he registered under 2
percent. Fred Thompson takes fourth place with 11.4 percent, followed
by John McCain at 6 percent. Romney spokesman Tim Albrecht attributed
the high poll numbers to Romney's visits to the state, saying his
message is resonating. But the campaign expects the race to tighten
before the caucuses.

Labels: Barack_Obama, Hillary_Clinton, Mitt_Romney, polling

The University of Iowa has released a poll this morning that tracks
Iowans' preferences for the Republican and Democratic races. However,
I'm not sure we should even take these results seriously. Here at Iowa
State, there's not a whole lot of love for the Hawkeyes but that's not
the reason why I'm calling this poll into question. I've taken enough
statistics classes and political science classes to know that any poll
that has such a low sample size should be, at best, looked at very
skeptically. I'm really surprised that an academic institute would
even publish these polling results considering the small sample size
and thereby the very high margin of error. I think it just reduces the
credibility of anything else they produce.

Labels: polling, University of Iowa

Rasmussen Reports, one of the most well respected polling firms,
unleashed a new set of numbers today that suggests that the last 90
days of campaigning in Iowa could be very exciting. There's little
doubt in my mind that this race is only going to continue to fluctuate
and move. Frankly, there's still a lot of voters, even here in Iowa,
that haven't been awakened to the race yet. So, lets get to the
numbers. ... It is noted that Mitt Romney appears to be hovering in the
mid 20's, but that is certainly a much softer position than where he
was at the end of the summer. This should not be surprising to any of
us. There's definitely some numbers differences in what Huckabee and
Thompson have.

Labels: polling

During my brief hiatus recently due to computer malfunctions, a couple
of new Iowa polls were released in Iowa. Additionally, a new poll
testing Iowa GOPers was also unleashed today. All of them paint a
portrait of a political landscape in Iowa that is (if you can believe
this) both consistent and fluid in nature. So why look at these polls?
Well, polls are sometimes very accurate and sometimes nothing more
than rubbish but they provide political junkies like you and me a
glimpse (hopefully more reliable than not) of what is happening in the
borders of our fine state. We are now past the sad and unfortunate 6th
anniversary of the events of September 11, 2001. We are now a month
past the Straw Poll and finally have the ever flirtacious Fred
Thompson committed to a full blown campaign effort.

Labels: polling

The very highly regarded American Research Group (ARG) released
polling data today from our great state and the numbers provide a very
fascinating picture. No matter what happens on August 11, we're headed
for a tremendous fall and winter here in Iowa. Surely, the Straw Poll
will end the campaigns of some of our Republican friends. However, the
post straw poll world could be just as fascinating. Here's the
Republican numbers. The sample was 600 and the margin of error was
(+/-4). The polling data provides some interesting news. First of all,
Giuliani and McCain have both scored solid bounce backs of 4 points
whereas Romney loses 4 points. Fred Thompson also lost a point and the
undecided figure also jumped up a point. This is all from their June
numbers. None of the lower tiered candidates were able to sufficiently
make any real progress and even some lost some traction.

Labels: polling, straw_poll

ARG, which has shown Clinton leading in Iowa all year, released a new
poll today with similar findings. Details and a spirited discussion of
this poll can be found over at MyDD. Here are the key findings:
Clinton 30 (down from 32 in last ARG poll), Edwards 21 (down from 29
in last ARG poll), Obama 15 (up from 13 in last ARG poll), Richardson
13 (up from 5 in last ARG poll). These numbers just don't ring true to
me. I don't believe Clinton leads Edwards in Iowa, and certainly not
by that kind of a margin. All year ARG has had Clinton around 30
percent in Iowa, and I can't remember any other pollster finding her
with support that high. ARG's new numbers for Republicans in Iowa are
also at odds with recent polling by other firms. ARG finds: Giuliani
22, Romney 21, McCain 17, Undecided 15, Fred Thompson 13, Gingrich 4.

Labels: Hillary_Clinton, polling

The Republican oriented Strategic Vision polling firm has let loose
its new results this evening of a brand new poll of Iowans. The
results here are pretty interesting but nothing really terribly
shocking. They surveyed 600 likely caucus attendees of both parties
and there is a margin of error of (+/-4). Strategic Vision, while
conservative leaning, has a tendency to be a pretty well respected
polling outfit. Let's get to the numbers. In the parentheses will be
the Strategic Vision numbers from the last time they conducted the
poll (in May) so you'll be able to see who is moving up, who is
falling down, and who is basically stagnate… Let's start with the
Republicans. Mitt Romney and his campaign have to be pleased because
this is just another poll which has him leading. This is now several
in a row and now he is cemented as the front runner here in Iowa. He
has moved up several points in this poll from the Strategic Vision
poll in May. Though, there is Fred Thompson, not actually in the race,
who is inching closer to him. Fred Thompson is the big gainer in this
poll having shot up an impressive 7 points. Media reports suggest he
is planning a major announcement for next week in Nashville and so
that is likely to put a whole new angle on this entire race.

Labels: polling

Mason-Dixon Independent Polling unleashed a new Iowa Poll this
afternoon and the results are very telling. Several things jumped out
at me. Since I am not a subscriber to Mason-Dixon's website, I have
not had a chance to look at the margin of error, who they asked, how
big the sample was, and all the other important facets that need to be
looked at in order to see how credible the polling data is. Not all
polls should be treated equally. However, Mason-Dixon has been around
a while and has done a good job in the past with predicting outcomes
so therefore I think you have to look at the results as though they
might carry some weight. With that being said, there are some
candidates that have to be giddy and some that have to be very
concerned. Perhaps the most telling result of this poll is the heavy
quantity of 'undecideds' in both parties. Lets get to the numbers.

Labels: polling

A new Mason-Dixon Iowa poll was released today. Of 400 likely
Democratic caucus-goers, 27 percent said they were undecided, followed
by Clinton with 22 percent, Edwards with 21 percent, Obama with 18
percent, Richardson with 6 percent, and Biden with 4 percent. The
Clintonistas are triumphant over at MyDD, confident that Teresa
Vilmain is already delivering the goods for Hillary, and that Bill
Clinton's three-day campaign swing through Iowa in early July is going
to seal the deal. Wishful thinking, in my view. I have a question for
Bleeding Heartland readers: how many undecided voters do you know who
have NOT ruled out Hillary? I know exactly two, out of scores and
scores of undecided Iowa caucus-goers I have talked to over the last
two months. If 27 percent of Iowans really are undecided (and I
wouldn't be surprised if the true proportion of undecideds is higher
than that), then Hillary is going to fall behind once they make up
their minds.

Labels: Hillary_Clinton, polling

This new poll at Strategic Vision shows Mitt Romney leading in Iowa with 20%. Everyone who reads this site knows I'm very skeptical when it comes to polls, but I have said, time and time again, that when you get a bunch of polls showing you the same thing, then you can start to plot a trend. I think we've established the trend. The question is, though, what is his real margin? We've seen a poll with him at 30%, one showing him at 19%, and now this one showing him at 20%. Real Clear Politics has Romney leading Iowa at 21.3% (that's his average across several polls). But Giuliani still leads across the nation, with an average of 27.4% across seven different polls. So clearly, Romney leading in Iowa isn't helping him in other places. I have to admit, and I've said so in a couple of other posts, that I have been leaning slightly towards Romney*. He's been explaining his "flip-flops" mostly to my satisfaction, and that will go a long way for most conservative voters. Whether or not it will be enough, I'm not sure.

Labels: Mitt_Romney, polling, Rudy_Giuliani

Ever since Tom Vilsack dropped out of the presidential race, I have thought there was a big opening in Iowa for Bill Richardson, the only governor and the only candidate with extensive legislative, executive and diplomatic experience. ... He's been moving up in the Iowa polls, reaching 10 percent in the latest Iowa poll commissioned by the Des Moines Register. ... Playing up his diplomatic background is not surprising, but I find it interesting that Richardson is not afraid to highlight the fact that he has negotiated with dictators. His first tv ad, the biographical one, included a still photo of himself with Saddam Hussein. His ad about Iraq, in which he stands in front of a wall, alludes to the tough diplomatic work that will begin once we get our troops out of Iraq. In his "job interview" ad, the interviewer mentions Richardson's experience negotiating with dictators.

Labels: Bill_Richardson, polling

... The Des Moines CBS affiliate's poll of 600 likely voters found that 46 percent approve of how Iowa Gov. Chet Culver is doing his job. Another 32 percent disapproved and 22 percent were undecided. The Democratic governor's backers shrugged off the relatively low approval rating, arguing that the poll was designed to survey likely caucus-goers and was not an accurate snapshot of Iowans in general. The poll's marquee feature was the latest standings in the presidential horserace. ... If there are Iowans out there who voted for the big lug and are now unhappy with those accomplishments, they weren't paying very close attention. Maybe some folks are unhappy about things he didn't mention much on the campaign trail. He pushed for politically radioactive pro-union "fair share" legislation, although lawmakers eventually shelved it. His party, which controls the Legislature, approved a budget that increases state spending by 9 percent even while experts warn of economic storm clouds in the distance.

Labels: Chet_Culver, polling