IowaPolitics.com BlogWatch

Two stories about the Straw Poll's continuing impact are beginning to
float through the Ethernet tonight. The first is pretty obvious; Mike
Huckabee's second place finish has produced a lot of media this week.
The combination of good news and increased exposure has supposedly
significantly boosted the Razorback's fundraising. Since Huckabee got
more votes than the quantity of tickets he purchased you'd have to say
the event gave him a pretty big bang for the buck. The second is
somewhat murkier. Rumor has it that a second GOP participant at the
Ames Straw Poll is set to drop out in the next few days. We'll be
chasing this rumor down hard, if it's groundless we'll say so, if not
the fallout zone will broaden beyond Wisconsin.

Labels: Mike_Huckabee, straw_poll

The very highly regarded American Research Group (ARG) released
polling data today from our great state and the numbers provide a very
fascinating picture. No matter what happens on August 11, we're headed
for a tremendous fall and winter here in Iowa. Surely, the Straw Poll
will end the campaigns of some of our Republican friends. However, the
post straw poll world could be just as fascinating. Here's the
Republican numbers. The sample was 600 and the margin of error was
(+/-4). The polling data provides some interesting news. First of all,
Giuliani and McCain have both scored solid bounce backs of 4 points
whereas Romney loses 4 points. Fred Thompson also lost a point and the
undecided figure also jumped up a point. This is all from their June
numbers. None of the lower tiered candidates were able to sufficiently
make any real progress and even some lost some traction.

Labels: polling, straw_poll

Two of the Republican presidential candidates talked about the Iowa Republican Party's Straw Poll today.(Here's the Radio Iowa story on Huckabee and here's the Radio Iowa story on Tommy Thompson.) Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson said some of his staff had seriously considered the idea of having him withdraw, but Thompson told reporters (during a telephone conference call) that he was steadfast in his commitment to participate. "I'm curious if you had considered skipping the Straw Poll after Giuliani and McCain got out of it," an AP reporter asked Thompson. "I reflected on it.I would say that my staff considered it more than I did. I never, I never thought about skipping the Straw Poll. I just thought that it was something that I had committed myself to early on. It was really the way we were focusing our campaign to see how well we were doing. It's a barometer of that. It's a test and I never personally, really, thought that we would skip it, but I've got to tell you that the three individuals on the call with me who are probably, I think, the three best knowlegable individuals about straw polls and Iowa politics thought that maybe we should skip it, but then they reflected on it and that's why we hadn't made an announcement because they wanted to consider all the alternatives and they came up with the same conclusion that I did, that this is the right thing."

Labels: Mike_Huckabee, straw_poll, Tommy_Thompson

Now that Republican presidential front-runners John McCain and Rudy Giuliani have said they'll skip the Aug. 11 Iowa GOP Straw Poll, the party's top fund-raising and early-testing event for the January Caucuses, the big question is what's next? Iowa GOP officials still expect the Straw Poll to be well-attended, particularly since folks like former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich plan on being there. The possibility of Fred Thompson entering the competition could energize uncommitted, and even new, activists to come out. Depending on whom you ask, the decision by the Giuliani and McCain campaigns was either a good one or a bad one, for varying reasons. Des Moines Register political columnist David Yepsen said on his blog: "The Ames straw poll has become a shake-down of candidates that, for some, has replaced the caucuses themselves as a test of viability. Minor candidates are forced to spend valuable resources on doing well in the poll. That's because in past cycles single digit candidates who fail to do well in it have sometimes been forced to drop out of the race because their fund-raising dries up." Polk County Republican Chairman Ted Sporer wrote on his blog: "Of course, I too am baffled at the logic that would lead to the conclusion that the Ames Straw Poll would not have benefited their respective candidacies."

Labels: Iowa GOP, straw_poll

• iPol: Romney Campaign Chair Rips Iowa GOP Rank and File
• Price of Politics: Minus 2 Straws
  
• Price of Politics: More Straw
• Iowans for Romney: Giuliani/McCain Campaigns on Life Support . . . They Flip-Flop on Ames Straw Poll
  
• Iowa Voice: McCain, Giuliani To Skip Iowa Straw Poll
  
• John Deeth Blog: Rudy, McCain Bail On Ames Buy A Vote Straw Poll
  
• On The Campaign Trail: We're outta here
  
• The Real Sporer: Rudy and John and Fred! Oh my!
  
• Iowans for Romney: Rudy Giuliani will skip Iowa, no show at the Straw Poll
  
• Iowa Independent: Giuliani to skip Iowa GOP Straw Poll
• Iowa Independent: McCain Follows Giuliani's Lead
  
• Essential Estrogen: McCain, Giuliani Disparage Straw Poll
  
• State 29: I've Seen The Future, And It Isn't A Bald-Headed Drag Queen From New York
  
• Iowa Insider: Giuliani, McCain back out of Iowa straw poll
  
• Back roads to the White House: The straw men
  
• Radio Iowa blog: Republican Party of Iowa reacts
  
• Radio Iowa blog: "Ringmaster" Romney reaps reward
  
• Radio Iowa blog: Giuliani will not participate in Straw Poll
  
• Politically Speaking: Giuliani gripes, and McCain misses too
  

Labels: John_McCain, Mitt_Romney, RPI, Rudy_Giuliani, straw_poll