IowaPolitics.com: Caucus Countdown Blog

Iowa's secretary of state announced today that he expects final tallies to show more than 100,000 party registration changes on caucus night.

Democrat Michael Mauro said more than 52,500 party changes have been registered so far, with more than 43,000 of them changing their registration to Democrat.

County auditors continue to sort through the voter registration forms filed on Jan. 3, when nearly 350,000 Iowans cast their support for a presidential candidate. Mauro also said auditors have processed nearly 7,000 new registrations so far.

Pundits and political insiders surmised on caucus night that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama was the beneficiary of a heavy independent vote because of his margin of victory. Pre-caucus polling had him in a head-to-head battle among Democratic voters with Sen. Hillary Clinton.

With the excitement generated by the caucus, Mauro said he hopes the energy level continues through the year leading up to November's general election.

"From the significant turnout numbers at the caucuses, it is clear Iowa voters have taken their first in the nation caucus status seriously," Mauro said. "I anticipate continued high voter turnout all the way to the general election."

See Mauro's press release

Nearly 80 people entered the IowaPolitics.com caucus prediction contest, but only one correctly picked the top three finishers in each party. The key was correctly picking Fred Thompson's third-place finish on the GOP side; twelve people picked the top three Dems and top two Republicans correctly, but only the winner correctly placed Thompson in third.

That winner, Brian Sears, is a 17-year-old high school senior from a town in the mountains of western North Carolina.

Here's the bio he sent in after being contacted about his win:

"I've been involved in politics since 2001, serving on various campaigns, putting out voter guides, managing voter registration drives, and promoting citizen activism. This past summer, I represented North Carolina at 2007 American Legion Boys Nation; past attendees include former President Bill Clinton, Vice President Dick Cheney and Senator Joseph Lieberman. Other activities include Air Force Junior ROTC, Chamber Choir, global missions work, writing newspaper columns and church activities. After graduation, I plan to attend either the United States Military Academy, the Citadel, or the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. After college, career possibilities include the military, Christian ministry, and public service."

Sears wins a free one-year gold level subscription to IowaPolitics.com.

IowaPolitics.com subscribers each week receive a Political Stock Report tracking the ups and downs of major political figures and issues, using views from insiders and observers.

Here is a special post-caucus edition of the IowaPolitics.com Political Stock Report.

POLITICAL STOCK REPORT
Post-caucus edition

RISING

Barack Obama: The first-time national candidate touting a message of unity and hope showed his stuff Thursday night, pulling off an impressive win in part by drawing the kinds of caucus turnout numbers -- newcomers, young people and women -- that most doubted were possible. Anecdotal reports of scores of party-switching Republicans -- perhaps independents, at heart -- show Obama more than lived up to his campaign's expectations. Now pundits wonder whether the frontrunner can stand up to the scrutiny.

Dave Loebsack: The freshman U.S. rep backed Obama, making him the only member of Iowa's congressional delegation on either side of the aisle to back a winning candidate.

Mike Huckabee: National political reporters said Huckabee's not-quite-negative press conference Monday spelled doom for his campaign, but Iowa's Republicans didn't listen. Huckabee followed up on weeks of upward-trending polling with a decisive victory that news networks called quickly -- about the same time Mitt Romney was exhorting a West Des Moines caucus to help him to victory. But Huckabee still needs money to be competitive in the long run, as was evident from the 12:45 a.m. fundraising missive he sent to backers just hours after the caucuses closed. And he's on his way to New Hampshire, where he's behind and without the strong bloc of evangelical Christians that helped him to victory in Iowa. Still, Huckabee proved to be an inspirational and engaging candidate -- assets that could work with independent-minded New Hampshire voters.

Dwayne Alons, Carmine Boal, David Hartsuch: These state politicians who backed Mike Huckabee watched as Mitt Romney, John McCain and Fred Thompson all attracted the backing of greater numbers of legislators. But they bucked the tide and ended up in the camp of the caucus-night winner.

Evangelical Christians: They showed themselves again to be a force in Iowa politics as they comprised 60 percent of the total GOP caucus-goers, according to surveys. Then 46 percent of them picked Huckabee, ushering him to his comfortable victory, the sampling indicated.

Fred Thompson: His low-energy campaign raised eyebrows, but it also lowered expectations enough that his third-place finish was enough to keep him in the race. Instead of dropping out, as some had speculated, his campaign moved on to New Hampshire.

Ann Selzer: The Des Moines pollster who does the Register poll got a lot of heat for the final pre-caucus poll. But Thursday's results were a vindication for her methodology and the state's most watched poll.

MIXED

John McCain: The candidate who was given up for dead in the summer recovered enough to pull off a near-tie for third. He was helped by several newspaper endorsements in the closing days of the campaign and an unsettled Pakistan that focused attention on his experience. Where Hillary Clinton's narrow loss to John Edwards was portrayed as a decisive rejection, pundits were eager to label McCain's razor-thin loss to Fred Thompson as essentially a third-place tie. He could be rising after New Hampshire.

John Edwards: The second-place finisher in 2004 needed a first-place finish to really give himself a strong chance at the nomination, insiders said. But he had to settle for another second. He barely defeated Clinton, but seems to have been able to spin that into enough of a victory to carry him into New Hampshire with momentum.

Mitt Romney: After heavily investing in Iowa with commercials, advisers and paid staff, he was only able to gain a second-place finish. But pundits labeled his self-proclaimed "silver'' damaged goods on his way to New Hampshire, where he's battling McCain and Huckabee.

Ron Paul: The Texas congressman ended up right about where the polls said he would -- reaching double-digit support and finishing ahead of Rudy Giuliani and Duncan Hunter but behind the other top contenders. He was even able to pull off a win in southeastern Iowa's Jefferson County, making him the only candidate other than Huckabee or Romney to win a county. His strident online support and his fourth-quarter fundraising numbers are enough to keep his campaign viable through more early contests.

FALLING

Hillary Clinton: An Obama backer said Clinton's campaign went from inevitability to "survivability" as the campaign drew to a close here. It appears her campaign may have expected this result in the final days, as surrogates tried to temper expectations. She didn't have the advantage some had expected her to have among women voters -- entrance polls showed that women made up 57 percent of the total Dem vote and 35 percent of them favored Obama, compared to 30 percent for Clinton. But she has the money and the organization to keep moving forward, and insiders were cautioning that it's dangerous to count out the wily Clinton machine.

Bill Richardson: The fourth-place finisher didn't make much of an impact in the face of the top three candidates' juggernauts. But he vowed to soldier on, even as the fifth- and sixth-place finishers dropped out. To many observers, his effort now looks like a campaign for a Cabinet or veep spot.

Rudy Giuliani: He didn't really try too hard in Iowa and it showed, as the former New York mayor finished behind Ron Paul for the second time in Iowa (he also lost out to Paul at the Ames Straw poll he skipped in August). Speaking from Florida on caucus night, Giuliani defended his strategy. Observers remark that past candidates who have skipped Iowa have had trouble recovering; Giuliani's looking to prove them wrong with solid performances in the next month of primaries.

Foreign policy: After former Pakistan prime minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated, observers thought the candidates who had emphasized foreign policy would benefit. But that wasn't the case as Dems watched Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Bill Richardson underperform, and the GOP saw John McCain finish fourth.

Iowa detractors: The criticism of this year's early, front-loaded primary schedule may be just a small preview of what will come four years from now. But Iowans made a strong case to keep their spot at the front of the line. Critics had said caucuses were problematic because of low turnout; the 350,000 Iowans who waited in line to set turnout records for both parties did their best to shoot down that argument.

Chris Dodd and Joe Biden: The two veteran East Coast senators ended their campaigns on caucus night after finishing out of the top four. It was Biden's second trip through the Iowa wringer. Dodd, who had hoped that the fire fighters' endorsement would make him into a John Kerry-esque comeback story, found that even moving to Iowa for the final months of the campaign wasn't enough to net him significant support.

Special interest groups: Top unions backed Clinton and Edwards, but AFSCME and SEIU, respectively, were on the losing side. The pro-Clinton EMILY's List, likewise, failed to get Hillary the female voters she needed. On the Republican side, the Club for Growth attacked Huckabee for being a taxer, but the former Arkansas governor talked and charmed his way around those charges with his own tax reform plan.

Republican Alan Keyes' campaign is complaining about the way votes for its candidate were handled Thursday night.

"I personally traveled with Alan Keyes across Iowa, and we met scores of Keyes voters. It's totally unfair these citizens' votes are now being withheld from the public," said Chaplain Gordon James Klingenschmitt in a Keyes campaign press release. "This is tantamount to election fraud."

"This resembles a 'communist-style' approach to electoral politics," Stephen Stone, chairman of Keyes' campaign said in the release. "In the former Soviet Union, political officials limited voters' choices in a way that created merely the illusion of democracy, without the reality. Any undue interference with free and open elections, of the sort we think we just witnessed, is un-American."

Labels: Republicans

Members from the non-partisan Divided We Fail group spent six hours at the Des Moines International Airport today handing out goodies to media, campaign staffers and volunteers leaving Iowa for other presidential nominating states.

A lot of campaign cell phone numbers were turned off Friday after the caucus came to an end Thursday. Some Iowa staffers have been dispatched to other states, mostly to New Hampshire.

Eric Woolson, who directed Mike Huckabee's Iowa campaign worked today on shutting down the state office and said he may be headed to South Carolina soon.

Jen O'Malley Dillon, who directed John Edwards' Iowa campaign, has been named a deputy campaign manager.

Several notables were heading to the East Coast to work on the closing days of the New Hampshire primary

They include:
-- Huckabee's Iowa co-chair Bob Vander Plaats;
-- Mitt Romney's Iowa spokesman Tim Albrecht;
-- Hillary Clinton's Iowa spokesman Mark Daley;
-- Edwards' Iowa communications director Dan Leistikow;
-- Edwards campaign director Jen O'Malley Dillon;
-- Edwards Iowa political director Pat Maloney;
-- Edwards assistant communications director Mark McCullough

Hillary Clinton's campaign moved to downplay the significance of her third place finish as soon as the campaign's press plane was in the air to New Hampshire.

The Wall Street Journal's Amy Chozick reported that a campaign staffer on the plane said Iowa hasn't been a reliable indicator of candidate performance:

"The worst thing would be to over count Iowa and its importance," said chief strategist Mark Penn, just hours after the New York senator finished in a disappointing third place, behind Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

"Iowa doesn't have a record of picking presidents. We're in a strong position to move forward," Penn told a handful of reporters on board a chartered midnight flight that took Clinton staffers and such high-level supporters such as former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright from Des Moines, Iowa, to Manchester, N.H.

The message continued on the ground in New Hampshire.

"Iowa does not have the best track record of determining who the parties nominate," Clinton later told reporters in New Hampshire.

On the Democratic side, six of the last eight top Iowa performers have gone on to win the nomination. See the IowaPolitics.com caucus history page for more.

Labels: Democrats

It's all about trust. That's how Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee's state co-chair Bob Vander Plaats explained Thursday's caucus victory. Vander Plaats said Iowans sensed they could trust the former Arkansas governor.

"I think the deciding factor was the people of Iowa trust Gov. Huckabee," Vander Plaats said. "I heard that over and over again. They said we may not agree on everything, but we trust him. When you are looking for a leader, that is a non-negotiable variable."

Huckabee Iowa Campaign Director Eric Woolson said he had listened to the media discuss how the governor didn't have the organization of fellow GOP rivals, including Mitt Romney, the second-place finisher. But he said the organization was there Thursday, and Vander Plaats agreed.

"Passion produces organization," Vander Plaats said. "We had people genuinely energized. People knew Gov. Huckabee was outspent, and they knew every vote mattered."

Both Woolson and Vander Plaats participated in their caucuses before returning to the Embassy Suites in Des Moines to watch as the results were phoned into the tabulation center.

Vander Plaats will continue to help Huckabee and is shipping out this weekend to New Hampshire. Woolson, who said he could be dispatched to South Carolina, is in the process of closing down the Iowa office.

"We will have that conversation soon," he said. "I could go on to South Carolina. Whatever it is I will be just fine. I certainly would like to continue in some role."

Huckabee was polling at less than 1 percent in May, and caught fire in the closing weeks leading up to the caucus. Woolson attributes much of that success to Huckabee being a strong candidate.

"It is a historic win," Woolson said.

Labels: Republicans

It appears the independent vote in Iowa may have propelled Sen. Barack Obama to a Democratic Iowa caucus victory Thursday -- entrance polls 57 percent of Dem caucus-goers were there for the first time, and 41 percent of those first-timers went for Obama.

That's good news for a campaign that now will rely on that same voting bloc for a similar outcome in New Hampshire.

"Wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would be a great start," Obama's Iowa co-chair Gordon Fischer said. "If you can win those states back-to-back, that is something to feel good about."

The Obama camp was still reveling in its Iowa victory today. Not only were they celebrating the win, but there was also an excitement created by the senator's margin of victory (nearly eight points ahead of John Edwards and Sen. Hillary Clinton).

"The Clintons aren't going down without a fight," Fischer said. "They never have, and they never will."

But at least for one night, that is a fight Obama, who energized caucus-goers for more than 11 months, will relish and savor.

"We went up against excellent candidates and won big," Fischer said. "Hillary Clinton is so established and has so much support, and John Edwards has lived here for six years."

Though Fischer admits he wasn't privy to internal polling, at his wishes, he noticed a change from the Clinton camp in the days leading up to the caucus coming.

"The Clinton campaign went from the inevitability candidate to tampering down expectations. I have never seen anything like it. It was a case of going from inevitability to survivability. It is difficult to change on a dime like that."

Labels: Democrats

Caucus turnout reached record levels Thursday as nearly 350,000 Iowans waited in long lines and experienced parking difficulties to cast their support for the candidate of their choice.

Democratic turnout reached 239,000 while nearly 120,000 Republicans caucused in the first presidential nominating event of 2008.

"These candidates came to Iowa and engaged in retail politics," Republican Party of Iowa Executive Director Chuck Laudner said. "They sought out the leaders in the Republican party at the grassroots level, visited every corner of the state, and shared their vision for America," Laudner stated. "This is the kind of presidential campaign our nation deserves – not a television ad battle focused on the coasts. Voters learn more about the candidates by engaging them personally in cafes and community centers than could ever be judged by slick ads and speeches in arenas."

Laudner said the turnout spoils the notion -- nationally -- that Iowans don't take their caucus responsibility seriously.

"I think Iowans proved that last night," he said.

Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Scott Brennan also praised Iowans for their efforts.

"It was an amazing night for Iowa and especially for Iowa Democrats," Brennan said. "Iowa Democrats showed up in record numbers to caucus and demonstrated that the role Iowans plays as first in the nation caucus goers is something they take very seriously."

The International Association of Fire Fighters, who had backed Chris Dodd in the caucus campaign, is now holding off an another endorsement until March.

See the story from The Hill: With Dodd out, fire fighters say they will wait until March

Harold A. Schaitberger, general president of the International Association of Fire Fighters, said the organization's choice of Dodd "was never about picking the winner in a horse race."

Schaitberger also said the group never considered backing a second-choice pick.

"We made our original endorsement based on our strong principle and after considerable internal discussion. That's why we didn't ask our members to prepare a Plan B for another candidate if Chris Dodd did not reach his 15 percent threshold at the Iowa caucus. Fire fighters had good reason to support Chris, and we remained with him for as long as he was standing."

Dodd dropped out of the race Thursday night after getting 0.02 percent of state delegates. That finish comes despite the union reporting that it had twice as many members attend the caucuses this year than in 2004.

See the IAFF press release: Fire Fighters Thank Dodd for His Commitment

Labels: Democrats

Entrance polls on the Democratic side show Barack Obama won decisively among first-time caucus goers, who made up 57 percent of those attending caucuses. Forty-one percent of those first-timers went for Obama, while 29 percent picked Hillary Clinton. John Edwards was the top pick among those who had caucused before, winning 30 percent of their vote.

See more Dem entrance poll data from CNN

On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee did well among voters who defined themselves as born-again or evangelical Christian, picking up 46 percent of their vote compared to Mitt Romney's 19 percent. Overall 60 percent of those surveyed by CNN identified themselves as born-again or evangelical.

See more GOP poll data from CNN

Read what Iowa political bloggers are saying about last night's caucus results in BlogWatch:
http://blogs.iowapolitics.com/blogwatch/index.html

At Merrill Middle School on the west side of Des Moines, 113 Democrats gathered in the school's library where a Biden volunteer from Fort Lee, New Jersey, (who did not participate in the voting process Thursday night), said she was quite surprised when Chelsea Clinton, daughter of Hillary and Bill Clinton dropped in for a 15-minute visit.

"She (Chelsea) walked in to the room, no cameras, no national media, and I looked at her and said to myself, why, that's Chelsea Clinton," Erin Medlicott, Biden's online communications volunteer manager, said. "I told her, I wish your Mom luck tonight, but not too much luck."

Medlicott said she then looked at Chelsea and pointed to the Biden sticker on the lapel of her own jacket. She said Chelsea remarked, "I like Joe."

Medlicott said she made it a point to pay Chelsea a compliment and she told her that "her hair looked great." She noted that Chelsea was "very friendly" but wasn't sure if her appearance had an impact on results of the delegate selection process at the precinct. She said Clinton ended up with 2 delegates to the Polk County Convention, where Obama and Edwards each received 1 delegate.

Medlicott said she was disappointed in Precinct 60 that there were only 3 people supporting Biden and no one supporting Dodd. "It's the money and the media," she said, assessing Biden's stance in the caucuses. "They concentrated on targeted candidates and Biden was left out."

Labels: Democrats

From the inbox, sent at 1:45 a.m. Friday by Mike Huckabee's campaign:

Thank you Iowa! Thank you to the people that turned out to caucus for our campaign. We succeeded tonight because of your confidence in our campaign, your support of our ideas and because of the support of tens of thousands of Americans not just in Iowa but across the country that went the extra distance and believed.

We are off to New Hampshire tonight where we will campaign until the primary next week. You can be confident we will be working through the night as we prepare for the next steps forward.

Tonight I ask you to do three things to help us build on our momentum:

1. Make an immediate contribution of $10, $25, $50, $100, or $500 tonight. We have proven tonight that we can win, and that we know how to effectively invest your contribution. Will you make a contribution tonigh t and show the world, the pundits and voters across this country that we have the momentum and it is sweeping us onward.

2. Share the Iowa results with friends and family. If there are friends or neighbors that doubted our campaign or are undecided please encourage them to visit our website tonight, tomorrow and over the next few days and learn more.

3. Consider becoming more involved in our campaign: Volunteer, Join a Meetup or start a Grassroots Meetup Team, Join our Myspace group, our Facebook group and our LinkedIn group.

Labels: Republicans

U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, told IowaPolitics.com he thinks the large turnout by caucus attendees sends an important message to those who want to reform the nation's primary system and prevent Iowa and New Hampshire from remaining the first states in the nation to begin the election process.

"It sends a strong signal that Iowans take this very seriously and it sends a message to the rest of the nation to maintain Iowa and New Hampshire as the first in the nation," Grassley said from the Convention Center in downtown Des Moines.

Grassley was asked if Huckabee's win in Iowa indicates that the Republican party is leaning more to the right.

"Whether it's the Democratic Party, and 10 percent on the left, or the Republican Party, 10 percent on the right, caucuses tend to emphasize the extremes of both parties and when you get beyond the convention and you get in the November election, you're going to find most of the Democratic candidates and Republican candidates going for votes toward that center 80 percent."

He added: "You're going to find both Democrats and GOP candidates going for votes from the center."

Grassley said he does not believe there was a significant amount of Republicans who caucused for Obama.

"I think if they went there it's because they are committed and I don't know of a lot of Republicans that would be for Obama. I think it would be a case of Independents that I'd worry about rather than Republicans.

"Just like in the 2006 election, a lot of people said well there was a revolt against Republicans. There wasn't a revolt among Republicans. We lost the independents in the 2006 election. Our base came out -- they didn't come out quite as much, but they didn't vote Democratic, either, ya know. "

Grassley has not endorsed a GOP presidential candidate and said the only way he'd get involved is it the GOP presidential race is narrowed to a couple of candidates. "There's a big difference between the candidates and if one person really wants me to campaign someplace else in the country, I might do that, but I'm going to do that based upon their request of me," he said.

Labels: Republicans

Republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson, who edged out John McCain for third place Thursday night, said he is the clear conservative choice and looks forward to the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary.

Thompson joked at the Des Moines Marriott that it might take days to figure out whether he or John McCain finished third. With 95 percent of precincts reporting, Thompson led McCain by 273 votes, with both men receiving 13 percent of the vote.

"We have been waiting around till we got a lot of percent of the vote in, but that doesn't look like it is going to happen in a few days," Thompson told roughly 100 supporters. "I thought that I would come before you got too tired and went home, but it doesn't look like anyone is tired."

Thompson congratulated Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and McCain as well as the other Republican candidates that participated in this process.

"You come away from this process with a real respect for everybody that puts (themselves) on the line and all their family and go out there and do the work," Thompson said. "We will have to look at the final numbers, we will have to look at our money situation and all of that, but it looks like somebody is going to carry on a strong consistent and conservative message and it looks like it ought to be me."

He also thanked U.S. Rep. Steve King, who endorsed Thompson and was at the event, and said that he made a new and a lifelong friend.

"It is not about padding our resume," he said as his reason for running for the presidency. "It is not personal ambition. It is about the greatest country in the history of the world, and the fact that we need to make sure that we pass onto the next generation the blessing that has been passed onto us and that is what it is all about."

A smattering of Thompson supporters watched the results come in at the Marriott Hotel early Thursday night before Thompson himself got there, waiting to see where their candidate would finish in the ranking.

Saying she was "not too surprised" that he finished in third place, Thompson supporter Michelle Adams was just relieved that he beat McCain.

"I think Thompson had a strong showing, and by finishing on top of McCain, he proved he is still a viable candidate," Adams said. "He has stayed a viable candidate in Iowa, which means he has a good shoot nationally."

Adams said she is not bothered by Thompson's mellow demeanor, nor does she see it as a sign that he is not passionate about his presidential bid.

"He doesn't present himself as something that he isn't," Adams said. "He doesn't put on a smile and pander to every voter he comes across. His attitude is much more of understanding that if it makes sense for an individual to vote for him, they will."

Labels: Republicans

Both parties reported a record turnout for the caucuses tonight.

Democratic caucuses drew 239,000 voters, smashing the 2004 total of 124,000.

Republicans reported approximately 114,000 caucus goers, up from 87,666 in 2000, the last contested
GOP caucus.

See video from a crowded caucus site in West Des Moines:

Joe Biden bade farewell to his 2008 bid to the White House in front of an enthusiastic crowd of supporters downtown tonight.

"There is nothing to be sad about today," said Biden, with his family standing behind him on stage. "I've hoped that we have been able to keep this campaign focused on the issues we talked about."

Although Obama may have came out the ultimate winner in tonight's caucuses, Biden told the crowd that he had no regrets for the campaign he ran.

"A lot of people said it was a great night to be a Democrat. But let me tell you, it's also been a great night to be me," said Biden, receiving a standing ovation and extended applause from the crowd.

Biden also made it clear that he will continue to fight for his ideals in the Senate, even if 2008 wasn't his year to win the presidency.

"I'll be going back to the Senate as the chairman of the foreign relations committee," said Biden. He later explained that if the eventual Democratic nominee wins the general election, he will hold them accountable to the promises that they make on the campaign trail.

Labels: Democrats

In Clive, Dem caucus-goers at one precinct demonstrated in a snapshot why Obama won.

When caucus-goers cast their first vote, Obama had 140 votes, Clinton 108 and Edwards 79, followed by Biden 46, Richardson 46, Dodd 10, Kucinich 2, and non- committed 7.

The lower-tier candidates didn't have enough supporters to receive delegates, so they realigned their votes. Of the 444 residents attending the final results were: 200 for Obama (4 delegates) 127 for Edwards (2 delegates) and 117 for Clinton (2 delegates).

Tom Whitney, former chairman of Iowa Democratic Party and organizer for Obama, said the surprise of the evening is that most of the Richardson people and Biden people joined the Obama group. "The surprise of the evening is that Hillary finished a distant third," Whitney said. "I think Democrats want to move on. The Clintons really have had their moment on the national stage and I think Democrats are looking for a new direction."

Ed Nalbantian, of New Jersey, who works on the Bill Richardson campaign as a fundraiser and attended the Democratic caucuses in Clive 2 to observe, said he witnessed a surprising amount of enthusiasm for Obama

"Our group stuck together. We had a very good solid group, but we just fell short of viability. Sadly, the Biden and Dodd camps would naturally move to us but they were unwiling to do so, so ultimately we released our supporters and most of them went to Senator Obama."

Nalbantian said he thinks most of the Richardson supporters went to the Obama camp because "he is a fresh and different candidate and people want someone they feel they can believe in. The support for Senator Obama is coming from Democrats. I don't see a lot of Republicans moving toward them. It's new voters, new people coming into the political process in a way that is extraordinary."

He noted the caucus reminded him of 1968 when Eugene McCarthy and Robert Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey ran for president. "There's more energy and more excitement today than I remember in that election which they say was a dramatic time in American politics and history. And we're witnessing a repeat of that, if not something more exciting than that."

Directly next to the lunchroom where the Democrats caucused, 246 GOP caucus-goers cast their votes in a secret ballot in the middle school gymnasium. Results were: Huckabee, 83; Romney, 60; McCain, 48; Thompson, 31; Guiliani, 12; Paul, 10 and Hunter, 2.

Sally Fisher, who describes herself as a moderate Republican, said she voted for McCain because he has experience, knows what he's talking about and he's the most moderate of any of the candidates. She said she thinks Iowa is a "one trick pony state" for Huckabee and has concerns about the future of the GOP.

"This is a moderate caucus traditionally, but the conservatives and the Evangelicals and fundamentalists, Pentacostal, have taken it over and taken the moderate away from the Republican Party. There are those of us who would like the party to return to normal and be like it used to be."

Jim Bruno, who had been a Republican for 20 years, said he recently switched to become a Democrat and he's supporting Obama. He said he's dissatisfied with the current administration.

"I'm just tired of seven years of a rogue administration and an inept Congress so I'm voting and caucusing for the person I think can unite everybody," Bruno said. I don't want a career politician. I want someone with people skills, communicaiton skills that can unite the country and that's why I'm for Obama."

Bruno said he will stick with Obama through the November election.

"I think we have a broken government and we need someone new and fresh that can fix it. He's my choice. If he can't do it, I'm not sure who can."

Clinton Campaign: Statement from Patti Solis Doyle, campaign manager

Dodd Campaign: Remarks on ending campaign

Edwards Campaign: Status quo lost, change won

Giuliani Campaign: Statement from Giuliani Campaign Manager Michael DuHaime

McCain Campaign: Statement from John McCain on the Iowa caucus

Richardson Campaign: Bill Richardson makes final four

See more press releases: http://www.iowapolitics.com/index.iml?Content=101

From Sen. Chris Dodd's withdrawal speech:

Tonight I am withdrawing from the Presidential race. But let me assure you, we do not exit this race with our heads hanging -- rather, we do so with our heads held high.

Whether it is restoring the Constitution to the American people, standing up to this President to end this war, or starting the discussion about what it will really take to tackle global warming and bring the country together, we stand confident that the difference we made in this race will endure longer than any speech, any election or any political campaign. ...

Tonight, I am infused with a renewed sense of purpose and energy, having learned so much from the hopes and dreams of the good people of Iowa, New Hampshire and others around the country.

I will carry the determination and courage of this campaign, as well as the result-oriented leadership I offered, back to the important battles that need to be won for the future of our country.

As I have for 26 years, I intend to serve by building broad, bipartisan support for bold ideas rooted in Democratic principles, turning them into national policies.

I commit that the fights we've waged in this campaign will not end tonight, from our Constitution to reversing global warming.

Whether it is the dozens that worked the field ... the hundreds that worked the phones ... or the tens of thousands that took to the blogs, I will make sure that the voices that spoke with us in this campaign are not forgotten but amplified.

Not ignored -- but championed.

Read his full remarks

Dodd supporters were disappointed to see him leave the race.

"He is a quality guy and a proven leader. It is a real shame that he is no longer in the running," Gina Bettrane said. "I think that he will go on to serve the people in one form or another for a very long time."

Dodd supporter Bob Mulqueen said he was saddened by the senator dropping out of the race, but took comfort in seeing the strength of the other Democratic candidates.

"The Democratic Party has an embarrassment of riches," Mulqueen said. "I just wish that some of these other stellar candidates stressed civil liberties as much as Dodd does."

Labels: Democrats

Joe Biden has told his supporters he's dropping out of the presidential race. Some of them had tearful reactions to the news.

He said he's heading back to the Senate.

Labels: Democrats

One floor above the Fred Thompson results party at the downtown Marriott, a smattering of Ron Paul supporters gathered to watch the returns come in. Those waiting to see Paul did not waver in their confidence of the man who constantly amazed pundits with his fundraising abilities.

"He has the money and he has the supporters," Lin Stromwall said. "What more is it going to take for the national press to recognize Ron Paul as a real candidate?"

John Wiborg, another Paul supporter, also was disappointed with the way his candidate was portrayed in the media.

"He's not taking any corporate money, he's doing well in the polls, and yet they are still not giving him a fair shot," Wiborg said. "The establishment doesn't want him, and sadly that is what matters to a lot of people."

Paul ended up finishing fourth, with 10 percent of the vote, even winning one county. In Jefferson County, located in the southeastern corner of the state, Paul netted 298 votes, 35 better than Mike Huckabee.

Labels: Republicans

Barack Obama proclaimed that if New Hampshire gives him the same chance that Iowa did tonight, "I will be the president of America."

A crowd of thousands jubilantly greeted Obama as he took the stage at Hy-Vee Hall.

"They said this day would never come" Obama said.

Speaking before his supporters, he promised he would continue his message of hope into New Hampshire and beyond in his pursuit of the presidency.

Obama thanked his supporters for doing "what the cynics said we couldn't do."

"Together, ordinary people can do extraordinary things because we are not a collection of red states and blue states," Obama said. "We are the United States of America at this moment, in this election, we are ready to believe again."

At various spots in the speech, the crowd chanted "Obama" and "U.S.A." as Obama continued to stress his theme of hope.

"We are choosing hope over fear. We're choosing unity over division and sending a powerful message that change is coming to America," Obama said.

He thanked those who worked for his campaign and remembered his days as an organizer on the streets of Chicago. He told them he could relate to the frustrating nights that come along with a campaign and but told "sometimes there are nights like this."

"You'll be able to look back with pride and say this is the moment that it all began," Obama said.

Marilyn Nichols of Des Moines said she wasn't surprised by the outcome because she knows how hard Iowa volunteers worked for Obama. And she doesn't think the momentum will stop here.

"If he has good workers like he did in Iowa, he will continue to the White House," she said.

Nichols didn't hesitate when asked what the outcome of the caucus meant.

"Change," she said. "It's time for a change."

Tom Corron of Waukee said there was a record turnout in his precinct, which helped Obama. He said Obama represents the kind of change this country needs, and his victory represents a change in this country.

"It's time we had someone like Barack in the office, and I'll be proud to see that," he said.

IowaPolitics.com video:
- Isiserettes pump up Obama crowd

Labels: Democrats

The Iowa Democratic Party released the following turnout information tonight and will update this information later in the evening:

With 99.2 percent of the precincts reporting we are seeing record turnout with 236,000 caucus attendees.

Labels: Democrats

Mitt Romney told a packed room of supporters at the Sheraton that the race to secure the nomination is not over, and that he intends to return to Iowa to campaign in the general election once he secures the nomination.

"Well, we got the silver," Romney said before congratulating Huckabee on his win.


Romney noted that he's come a long way from being a relatively unknown governor to place above candidates like Giuliani and McCain who are "household names."

He said the fact that both Democrats and Republicans chose candidates from outside of Washington shows that people want new faces in government.

"America recognizes that were not going to change the nation and have a bright future if we just send the same old people back to Washington in just different chairs," Romney said to applause. "We need new faces in Washington and I intend to be one of them."

Romney thanked Iowans for their support. "You have so inspired us; you have so moved us," Romney said.

The night wore on before Romney's speech and the once-dour crowd grew larger and more optimistic, with supporters cheering and waving Romney signs at various times.

Supporters expressed mixed feeling about the results.

Romney supporter Tom Irving, 56, who was in town from Virginia to observe the caucuses, said he was surprised that Romney could place behind someone with a relatively weak organization in Iowa and little money.

The results, Irving said, shows Huckabee has an "impressive" ability to connect with people.
"Romney's got a long row to hoe," Irving said.

Tiffany Robinson, 23, of West Des Moines, said she is "really sad" and "a little disappointed" in the results.

"I thought he had it in the bag," she said, adding that she's optimistic he will do well in New Hampshire.

"We're not defeated," Robinson said. "We will make it."

Matt Herzberg, 20, of St Louis, said the Huckabee win will provide an advantage for him going into South Carolina, but that Romney will still get the nomination.

Romney was introduced by Olympic gold medalist speed skater Dan Jansen, a Wisconsin native who had campaigned with Romney as the caucus campaign drew to a close. He was joined on stage by his wife Ann and other family members.

Listen to the audio: http://www.wispolitics.com/1006/080103RomneySpeech.mp3

Labels: Republicans

Mike Huckabee's Iowa campaign co-chair Bob Vander Plaats said tonight that when he and co-chair Danny Carroll joined forces with the presidential candidate and Iowa director Eric Woolson last year, Huckabee was just an asterisk in the polls. Huckabee garnered less than 1 percent in many polls, but that began to change to the summer.

"He is no longer an asterisk, he is the Iowa caucus winner," Vander Plaats said Thursday night.

Vander Plaats introduced Huckabee to a rousing applause from the packed crowd at Embassy Suites in Des Moines.

"I wasn't sure I would be able to love a state as much as I love my home state of Arkansas, but tonight I love Iowa -- a lot," Huckabee said.

He thanked Iowans for welcoming them into their homes, and said his support represented a "prairie fire" urging change. He quipped that he wished the race would end tonight and he could celebrate the whole thing, but pledged to take his message to New Hampshire and the rest of the country.

Despite being outspent significantly in Iowa by GOP rival Mitt Romney, the end results came down to the candidate and message, Huckabee said.

"People really are more important than the purse," he said. "Tonight we proved American politics still is in the hands of ordinary folks like you and across this country who believe it wasn't about who raised the most money but who raised the greatest hopes, dreams and aspirations for our children and their future. And tonight, I hope we will forever change the way Americans look at their political system and how we elect presidents."

Labels: Republicans

According to an MSNBC story:

Dodd abandoned his campaign a few hours after the caucus ended, and it seemed possible the field would grow even smaller before New Hampshire votes on Tuesday.

Labels: Democrats

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson finished in fourth place in today's Iowa caucuses. He said that would move his campaign forward to the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8.

"We made it to the final four," Richardson said. "My staff and volunteers worked their hearts out to get us here. Now we are going to take the fight to New Hampshire."

After watching the results at a rally in Des Moines, he boarded a plane for New Hampshire.

Labels: Democrats

After finishing just behind John Edwards in the caucuses, Hillary Clinton addressed her supporters Thursday evening, making it clear that she still plans to be the Democratic nominee.

"We're taking this enthusiasm and going right to New Hampshire," Clinton told a screaming crowd at the Hotel Fort Des Moines.

Saying she was "so proud to have run with such exceptional candidates," Clinton congratulated Obama and Edwards for their first and second place finishes, respectively.

"This has been a great night for Democrats," she said. "We have seen an unprecedented turnout here in Iowa and that is good news because today we are sending a clear message that we are going to have change, and that change will be a Democratic president in the White House."

She said it was important to keep the race focused on two things: How Democrats will win in November by nominating a candidate "able to go the distance" and who will be the best president "from day one."

"I am ready for that contest," Clinton told supporters.

In an attempt to downplay her third-place finish in the state, Clinton said she "had planned to run a national campaign all along" and was looking forward to hitting the ground in New Hampshire.

"I am so ready for the rest of this campaign," Clinton said. "I know that we're going to get up tomorrow and keep pushing as hard as we can to get the message out about what is at stake in this election."

She ticked off a series of initiatives, from ending the war in Iraq to energy independence and referenced her book "It Takes a Village," which includes a chapter about her belief that each child needs a champion.

"I think the American people need a president who is their champion, and that is who I intend to be," she said.

Long-time Clinton supporters were disappointed and surprised by her third-place finish. Gisselle Davis said she believed Clinton had the support and the substance to win the caucuses.

"Like a lot of people are, I am excited about the thought of a woman president," Davis said. "Plus, I believe Clinton has the best policy on the important things like health care and Iraq."

Joe Halterman also expected Clinton to come out on top, saying it seemed inevitable that she would finish in first-place.

"I love Bill Clinton, and I think enough people feel the same way and want him back in the White House," Halterman said. "Hillary gained a lot of experience while she was the First Lady and now as a Senator. I believe she will go on to win the nomination even after loosing here tonight."

Labels: Democrats

Obama backers could be heard celebrating through the halls of the downtown's Skywalk. Inside the massive hall the campaign reserved for the event, the atmosphere was electric.

A local youth drum and dance corps played furiously as supporters danced, cheered and embraced. And they cheered the results that continued to show their candidate pulling away from the field.

Labels: Democrats

CNN is reporting that Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd is dropping out of the race.

Labels: Democrats

John Edwards addressed followers during his ongoing battle for second place in the caucuses by charging them to leave America better than they found it.

He characterized his primary rivals as "two candidates who thought their money would make them inevitable," but said that Americans standing for change would be unstoppable.

"We're better than this," Edwards said. "What happened tonight is that the Iowa caucus goers said 'We want something different.'"

Edwards' Iowa communications director Dan Leistikow said the high caucus turnout numbers are proof that voters are looking for change.

"The debate really is what kind of change do we want in this country," he said. "We think John Edwards represents the kind of change people want."

Leistikow said the North Carolina Dem's close finish despite being outspent 5-1 by his two main rivals shows the strength of his message, and he scoffed at pundit predictions that the loss tonight is the beginning of the end for Edwards.

"The thing we learned in Iowa is that these contests aren't decided by pundits, they're decided by caucus-goers and voters," he said.

Labels: Democrats

From the Democratic caucus results Web site:

95.9% reporting

Obama : 37.46%
Edwards : 29.93%
Clinton : 29.43%
Richardson : 2.11%
Biden : .93%
Uncommitted : .12%
Dodd : 0.02%

Labels: Democrats

Obama strategist David Axelrod spoke with MSNBC from a raucous Obama caucus headquarters about his candidate's victory, and the coalition that could carry the campaign through to other states.

"This was such a meaningful victory, not just because of how it turned out but because of the composition of that victory," Axelrod said, adding that the Obama campaign drew young people to caucus in unprecedented numbers.

"We're not taking anything for granted. This was a great start," Axelrod said of moving on to New Hampshire. "The hunger for change isn't just limited to Iowa."

Labels: Democrats

Rudy Giuliani defended his campaign's strategy of operating outside Iowa in his quest for the GOP presidential nomination.

"This was the best strategy, at least for us," Giuliani said in an appearance with CNN from Florida, which he said will play a critical part in the compressed primary schedule.

With 72 percent of precincts reporting, Giuliani was sixth in Iowa.

He said that Mike Huckabee's victory was a credit to his campaign and his "door-to-door, meeting-to-meeting" style. He said the result sets up a group of GOP candidates for voters to evaluate.

"Three or four weeks ago I would have been surprised," Giuliani said of the Huckabee victory. "It's not surprising right now."

Labels: Republicans

72% reporting

Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 14%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 0%

Source: CNN

Labels: Republicans

Here at the Huckabee camp, the crowd has almost tripled in size in a 15-minute span. About a half hour ago, the major news networks declared the former Arkansas governor the winner, and the supporters have been steadily pouring in to hear Huckabee speak.

Todd Hertzberg, a Huckabee supporter from Arkansas who was one of the first to arrive to the event at 7 p.m., said the strong finish can be attributed to the massive amount of volunteer support.

"You always like to get ahead in something like this," said Hertzberg. "The downtown office has just been amazing the last few days making phone calls, and it looks like it is paying off."

Another out-of-state Huckabee volunteer, Lewis Gander from Wisconsin, also said the victory here tonight could be attributed to the work of Huckabee's loyal supporters.

"I have personally made over 1,000 calls in the last few days," said Gander. "I got nothing but great responses from everybody I talked to, so I knew he was going to do truly great."

Right before the major news networks declared Huckabee the winner, Chip Saltzman, one of the chairs of the Huckabee campaign, took an indirect swipe at 2nd place finisher Mitt Romney.

"The numbers are looking good. Message matters, you cannot buy this election in Iowa," said Saltzman.

Currently, the crowd continues to grow with chants of "We like Mike" filling the air.

Labels: Republicans

Speaking in New Hampshire, Republican John McCain said he is proud of his campaign in Iowa, which is running in a strong fourth position despite not running many ads.

He said there are two lessons to be learned from the Iowa caucus - that an election can't be bought, and that negative ads don't work.

"They don't work there (Iowa), and they don't work here in New Hampshire," he said.

Labels: Republicans

Edwards supporters began to file in to the reception at the Savery Hotel at about 8:30 p.m., just as major networks were declaring victory for Obama.

John and Heidi Hagen had caucused in Des Moines earlier in the night, and were sipping cold beers as they watched CNN analyze the results. John Hagen said at their precinct, a majority of the Biden and Richardson supporters gravitated to Edwards, but he still finished behind Clinton in that caucus.
But, despite some pundits saying Edwards bid is now all but over, Hagen said Edwards' fight isn't over.

"It's not over 'til it's over," he said. "The guy's a fighter. And that's what we need now."

Labels: Democrats

Several hundred Romney supporters are packed into a ballroom at the West Des Moines Sheraton. With a large flat panel screen showing Romney well behind, the crowd is far from festive.

Most are standing around chatting with each other, a few smiling and making jokes as they wait for Romney to arrive while recorded country and soft classic rock music fills the room.

Labels: Republicans

Edwards campaign senior adviser Joe Trippi spoke with MSNBC and characterized the battle for second place with Hillary Clinton as "a strong night for us."

He said the votes for Edwards represented a repudiation of Washington, and that the race remains a "three-way dead heat."

"Clinton doesn't have a whole lot to talk about with this finish. We feel very good about where we are," Trippi said. "We got massively outspent here and held our own."

Labels: Democrats

From the Democratic caucus results Web site:

86% reporting

Obama : 36.84%
Edwards : 30.11%
Clinton : 29.92%
Richardson : 2.07%
Biden : .94%
Uncommitted : .10%
Dodd : 0.03%

Labels: Democrats

Fox News' Chris Wallace interviewed top Huckabee aide Ed Rollins on the campaign's victory in Iowa.

"I think it's the power of the message, but more important the power of the messenger," Rollins said of the upstart campaign's victory. He also appealed for new supporters, volunteers, and financial donors to help the campaign "go all the way."

"This is a chance to make history," Rollins said. "This is a great, great candidate."

Rollins said reports quoting him saying he would like to "knock (Mitt Romney's) teeth out" were taken out of context, though he added he was a boxer 40 years ago.

Labels: Republicans

At the GOP caucus in the eastern Iowa locale of Maquoketa, caucus-goers favored Mike Huckabee over Mitt Romney, mirroring results in the rest of the state. Ron Paul finished a strong third.

Here are the results

Huckabee 84
Romney 73
Paul 41
McCain 18
Giuliani 10
F. Thompson 8
Hunter 4

Labels: Republicans

Chris Matthews just said NBC News is projecting Barack Obama as the winner of the Democratic caucuses.

Labels: Democrats

From the Democratic caucus results Web site:

66.5% reporting

Obama : 34.90%
Edwards : 31.26%
Clinton : 31.03%
Richardson : 1.70%
Biden : .96%
Uncommitted : .12%
Dodd : 0.03%

Labels: Democrats

Mitt Romney spoke about his second-place finish with Fox News' Chris Wallace, disputing the notion that his negative ad campaign against Huckabee backfired. He said that he had actually made up ground in the past two weeks.

"I'm pleased that we've been able to make up ground, and I intend to keep making up ground," Romney said.

Labels: Republicans

From the Democratic caucus results Web site:

Senator Barack Obama : 34.06%
Senator John Edwards : 31.71%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.45%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.76%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.05%
Uncommitted : 0.03%

Precincts Reporting: 923 of 1781

Labels: Democrats

West Des Moines School District building supervisor Gary Larson said the crowds that packed Valley High School's meeting rooms for the five districts that caucus there easily tripled what he was told to expect.

Larson said projections were for about 200 in each precinct. Larson pegged attendance for each precinct at between 400 and 600.

A total of 370 people packed precinct 114, which went for Obama. Larson said the district was expecting 140.

"It was crazy," one caucus goer could be heard saying as she led the crowd out of the school.

See video of the crowded hallways:

CNN, MSNBC and Fox News have projected Mike Huckabee as the winner of the 2008 Iowa Republican caucuses.

Labels: Republicans

Crowds are slow to develop at the downtown Des Moines rallies of Dem contenders John Edwards and Bill Richardson.

Edwards' party at the Savery Hotel is attracting dozens of media outlets, but only a few supporters had shown up as of 7:30 p.m. The Richardson event, in the ballroom at the Quality Inn & Suites, was getting far less media attention.

Mitt Romney told a crowd of Republicans from the Clive 3 precinct in West Des Moines that if they nominate him, he'll win in November.

In a short pitch to the roughly 500 people in the packed auditorium, Romney said he'd end illegal immigration, create jobs, fight for education and keep taxes down.

He also said that as governor he made sure every one was ensured using private insurance, not "socialized medicine."

"If it comes time to debate Hillary Clinton I can talk about getting everybody insured the Republican way," Romney said.

Romney was joined on stage by his sons Matt and Ben and some of their family members.

Before and after his talk, which began when the caucus convened at 7:30 p.m., Romney worked the crowd, shaking hands and posing for pictures.

Hear the audio: http://www.wispolitics.com/1006/080103Romney.mp3

Labels: Republicans

CNN's Wolf Blitzer says CNN is projecting Mike Huckabee will win the GOP caucuses.

Labels: Republicans

15% of precincts reporting

Huckabee 36%
Romney 23%
Thompson 15%
McCain 12%
Paul 11%
Giuliani 3%
Hunter 0%

Source: CNN

Labels: Republicans

From the Democratic caucus results Web site:

Edwards : 32.53%
Obama : 32.47%
Clinton : 32.25%
Richardson : 1.85%
Biden : .76%
Dodd : .10%
Uncommitted : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 486/1781

The Democratic caucus crowd doubled from 2000 to 2004, and party officials said leading up to tonight they expect a larger turnout than the more than 120,000 that attended four years ago.

"We were prepared for record turnout," Iowa Democratic Party Communications Director Carrie Giddins said. "We are hearing about lines getting into precincts, which is good that Democrats are excited to caucus."

KCCI-TV is airing video from Democratic site at Merrill Middle School where the event is standing room only. Barack Obama's crowd was so large it had to be moved from the commons area to the hallway.

Labels: Democrats

With 15 percent of Republican precincts reporting, CNN reports Mike Huckabee holding 36 percent of caucus votes, followed by Mitt Romney at 23 percent, Fred Thompson at 15 percent, and John McCain at 12 percent.

Labels: Republicans

With 367 precincts out of 1,781 reporting, John Edwards has 33 percent of the vote, followed closely by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama each reporting close to 32 percent. Richardson and Biden trail with 2 and 1 percent, respectively.

Labels: Democrats

Polk County Republican Chairman Ted Sporer says scores of Republicans in his precinct have switched over to the Democratic side for the night in order to vote for Barack Obama.

"If anything it's more an anti-Hillary vote than a for-Obama vote," Sporer said. "Most of them are saying they are going to vote for Obama and vote outright against Hillary."

He said it wasn't an organized effort.

"This is spontaneous," he said. "Hillary Clinton is the most divisive candidate -- moreso than Richard Nixon was in Watergate."

Sporer also predicted the Republicans would come back to the GOP in November.

Des Moines lawyer Tom Whitney, a long-time Democratic activist, confirmed that hundreds of people had changed their party affiliation, primarily to vote for Obama. He said he doesn't think it's an anti-Hillary vote but credited Obama's draw as a candidate.

Whitney and Sporer are at Indian Hills Junior High School in Clive, where three caucuses are being held -- two Democratic caucuses (from West Des Moines and one from Clive) and one Republican caucus from a Clive precinct.

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

High turnout and registration problems have delayed the start of the caucuses for at least two of the precincts convening at West Des Moines Valley High School.

As of 7:20 p.m., lines of people were still trying to enter the Democratic precinct 311 caucus and the Republican Clive 3 caucus.

Mitt Romney has just arrived. He's working the room and is to speak once the Clive precinct convenes.

The Republican caucuses have begun.

Go here for GOP results: http://www.iowagop.net

Labels: Republicans

MSNBC's Keith Olbermann is reporting that early NBC entrance polls have Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney ahead on the GOP side and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama leading among Dems.

Without mentioning a campaign by name, the Republican Party of Iowa just issued a press release rejecting claims that caucus locations changed extensively.

The campaign said less than 1 percent of locations changed, and RPI political director Craig Robinson said weekly updates were sent to all campaigns.

"We work closely with the campaigns to provide the best information possible from the county organizations," he said. "Our process is open, transparent, and we communicate frequently with everyone involved."

The release did not mention a specific campaign, but it may have been referring to a claim from Mitt Romney that a erroneous mailer sent to a Huckabee backer was due to changes in caucus locations.

Labels: Republicans

Precinct 115 in West Des Moines, a Democratic caucus site, is overflowing with attendees.

IowaPolitics.com's Julie Rutz reports that people are parking as far as six blocks away then braving the bitter cold to walk to the caucus location.

The Democratic caucuses are underway.

Find caucus results here: http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/

Labels: Democrats

Republican John McCain, who's been trending upwards in recent polls, today made a final plea for votes from Iowans.

"I won't lack the courage to fix our toughest problems and let them become worse on someone else's watch," McCain says in the Web video, which also includes a news clip that discusses his newspaper endorsements and the backing he's getting from Joe Lieberman.

"I might not like the business-as-usual crowd in Washington, but I love America," McCain says.

McCain spent time in western Iowa today, with stops in Rock Rapids, LeMars, Sioux Center and Sioux City. While he was in Sioux City, he vowed to return to Iowa this summer to visit the State Fair

The Des Moines Register reported:

McCain's largest crowds were in Sioux Center, where about 100 area residents listened to him, and in Sioux City, where a crowd of 150 met with him at the city's downtown public library.

GOP rivals are keeping their eyes on McCain as the caucus results file in this evening.

A Pew poll today showed McCain capturing the national lead among Republican voters and GOP insiders admit there is a sense the senator's stock is rising in Iowa. With that said, it would be an impressive feat if McCain could log a top-three finish, party insiders said, especially considering there was some speculation he might shut down his campaign this summer after poor fundraising.

McCain drew significant campaign crowds as he made his final plea to caucus goers. With the recent assassination of former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto two caucus-goers told IowaPolitics.com this week they were switching from Huckabee to McCain due to the senator's foreign policy background.

Des Moines attorney and Republican National Committee member Steve Roberts told Sen. John McCain in October he was the comeback kid. Observers say McCain remains a viable contender for a top-three spot, along with former Sen. Fred Thompson and Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

The large crowds and volunteer effort are pleasing to McCain campaign officials.

"I am happy with the effort on the ground and hoping for the best (on caucus night)," McCain's Iowa campaign director Jon Seaton said.

Labels: Republicans

The Polk County Convention Center has been home to the press corps covering the Iowa caucus since before the New Year.

The facility is buzzing today as major news networks are conducting live interviews with key campaign figures in the presidential race.

More than 3,000 media were credentialed for the caucus. The reporters are from more nearly 50 different countries and more than 250 news organizations. Those countries include England, France, Germany, Japan, Croatia, Australia, China, Finland, Italy, and Israel.

Volunteers are setting up booths and caucus goers are starting to stream in to West Des Moines Valley High School.

Barack Obama was slated to make a stop at the school, but an organizer said he's not sure he will be able to make it. Mitt Romney is scheduled to make a stop here at 6:30.

Valley High, along with Lincoln High in Des Moines, were the site of "Rock the Caucus" parties earlier in the day. The parties were organized by the national Rock the Vote campaign, which concentrated its Iowa efforts on encouraging 17 and 18-year-old students to caucus.

The events started after school at 3:30 p.m. and gave students the opportunity to make their own public service announcements and posters and to participate in a raffle and a "Guitar Hero" competition.

See video of Rock the Vote Executive Director Heather Smith explain the turnout efforts: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhOQaFlGZT4

Caucus day has seen a flurry of stories about potential second-choice deals on the Democratic side.

Officially, the campaigns have denied any moves to back another candidate.

But IowaPolitics.com has learned in eastern and southern Iowa, caucus-goers on the ground supporting Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd may help each other become viable on the second ballot.

And in some regions, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson's supporters may be moving toward Sen. Barack Obama if Richardson is not viable.

One Democratic caucus veteran insider said the move to make the lower-tier candidate viable or to cast support to Obama is a strategy to prevent Sen. Hillary Clinton from gaining momentum going into New Hampshire.

See related links:
- Biden, Dodd & Richardson to Iowans: Make your own decision
- Obama-Richardson Deal Goes Both Ways in Certain Precincts and Counties
- Is Obama a Plan B for Richardson Voters?
- Biden Staffer: Our People Likely To Go For Obama

Labels: Democrats

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett says he plans to attend one of the caucuses in Des Moines tonight , the first time he's ever done so.

Barrett, who is in Iowa to support Sen. Barack Obama, said that even though Democrats and Republicans run their caucuses differently, both get supporters involved at the grassroots level.

"To me that's really important, particularly in presidential politics where the American people can be very cynical because so much of it is driven by polls and media advertising," Barrett said.

Many of Obama's supporters are young and first-time caucus goers, which has led some pundits to question whether they'll show up.

"Normally, that would potentially be the case," Barrett said, "but I think they spent so much time organizing and working to make sure people do come and I think that's going to be very helpful at the end of the day."

Barrett spent yesterday and the first half of today in Dubuque meeting with party members, undecided voters and working the phones.

Barrett said Obama staffers, like those in other campaigns, are hopeful and optimistic.

"Everybody is doing everything they can here in the eleventh hour," Barrett said.

He said he had not had a chance to meet with Obama in person on the trip yet, but likely will tonight in Des Moines.

Labels: Democrats

Phyllis Hughes-Ewing swooped into the West Des Moines headquarters of Dem hopeful Joe Biden to pick up some more campaign stickers a few hours before the caucus this afternoon. The front room was a buzzing with activity and excitement.

"A lot of people are going to wake up tomorrow with a big Iowa omelette on their face because they sold Joe Biden short," she predicted.

Hughes-Ewing is the daughter of former Iowa U.S. Senator and Governor Harold Hughes. Biden's first term in the Senate overlapped with her father's last, she said.

"I was pretty convinced he would go far even then," she said. "He's always been one of my heroes."

In another part of the room, volunteer Tom Chapman of Seaford, Del., was giving last-minute instructions on message to a young Iowa caucus-goer.

"I've given up most of my Christmas vacation to come out here and help out," said Chapman, a teacher.

Labels: Democrats

At Rudy Giuliani's campaign headquarters in West Des Moines, a half dozen young volunteers worked the phone for the Republican hopeful. The youngest today was Nick Rodriquez, a sixth grader at St. Teresa's Middle School.

Rodriguez said this was the eighth or ninth time he's worked a phone bank shift for the former New York mayor. He said he tells call recipients about Giuliani's record on taxes and other accomplishments, and asks who they're caucusing for.

"They most likely say Huckabee or Romney," he said.

Giuliani's campaign has de-emphasized Iowa, focusing instead on states with larger delegate pools. Despite that, they still have 17 phone banks working statewide, with volunteers signed up for 185 three-hour shifts, according to the campaign.

Labels: Republicans

- Iowans ready to caucus and pick first winners, losers

- Romney touts business experience

- 'Make political history,' Huckabee urges

- McCain: I'll be back for the Iowa State Fair

- Ron Paul will speak at Waterloo caucus

- 'Go get 'em,' Edwards tells volunteers

- A little time for indulgence for Clinton today

- Biden makes his last-minute pitch before caucus

- Candidates keep pushing down to the wire

- GOP ignores Jan. 5 Wyoming conventions

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Chris Dodd was unable to make a quick stop at his campaign headquarter in Des Moines because of a 4:15 p.m local media interview at the Polk County Convention Center. Dodd was scheduled to meet and greet the volunteers helping man the phone banks of his campaign at 4 p.m., but he was still traveling on the road from his recent rally this afternoon in Iowa City.

Like many of the presidential hopefuls Dodd campaigned across the state until Iowans walk into their caucus locations.

After his interview with the media at the convention center, he is slated to make a 6:30 p.m. appearance at a Democratic precinct at Hoover High School in Urbandale. After his appearance at the high school, he will be at the Temple for Performing Arts in Des Moines for his Caucus Night Celebration at around 7 p.m.

Labels: Democrats

Mitt Romney appeared at the Kum & Go corporate headquarters in Wes Des Moines just hours before the caucuses to make a final request of support from employees, and to respond to the latest comments to come out of his chief rival's campaign.

Romney referred to fellow Republican, Mike Huckabee, and the comments made earlier in the day by the chairman of the Huckabee campaign. Romney quoted the Huckabee staffer as saying "I want to knock Romney's teeth out." The former governor of Massachusetts joked that he had "only one thing to say in response - 'as long as you don't touch the hair.'"

A strong military, economy, and focus on the family are the foundations Romney outlined of his presidency. He said that his years in the private sector have led him to conclude that American strength comes not from the government, but from the individual.

"Politics is not my profession," Romney said. "My profession was starting a business and growing it."

On the issue of immigration reform, Romney's Web site quotes him as saying, "You've got to have a wall or fence or electronic surveillance. You have got to make sure we secure our border, that's first."

On Thursday Romney said that in order to remain an economic superpower and stay competitive with emerging markets in Asia, the United States must avoid the temptation to isolate itself.

"There are some that say, 'Put up walls, put up barriers. We can't compete with those guys,'" Romney said. "But let me tell you, if we put up walls around America, basically we're saying we can't compete."

Labels: Republicans

- Candidates agree it's 'too close to call'

- Iowa ensures national front-runner has no easy road

- Iowa's Republican caucuses a classic David vs. Goliath battle

- Edwards does last minute campaigning at the Mill

- In Cedar Rapids, Dodd unsure how tonight will go

- Huckabee, Ann Romney to address Black Hawk County Republicans tonight

- Allard campaigns in Iowa for Romney

- Minn. governor heads to Iowa to stump for McCain on caucus night

- Ron Paul supporters to fly helicopter over Cedar Rapids

- Linn County Democrats say 'No food, please'

- ZIP code glitch spurs confusion on caucus location

On his final campaign stop at Des Moines University this afternoon, Ron Paul spoke to a crowd of medical professionals and supporters about the need to keep government out of health care reform.

"The cost of medical care has been out of control since the government has been involved over these many years," said Paul. "The cost can go up for many different reasons." He later stated that inflation is one of the largest factors for rising medical costs.

Although his speech generally centered around addressing health issues, Paul still made his last pitch for caucus-goers to consider basic freedom over any other issue.

"Health care isn't a right, having a house isn't a right, having a job isn't a right, not in a free country," said Paul, receiving a loud round of applause from his supporters waiving campaign signs in the back of the lecture hall. "In a free country, you have a right to your life, you have a right to your liberty, you have the right to pursue your happiness, and hopefully someday you will have the right to keep what you earn."

At the end of his speech, Paul took pre-submitted questions from members of the audience, which offered him the opportunity to reflect on how medical care has changed since his days of being a practicing physician in Texas.

"Personally, I have gone through a transition having gone to medical school in the '50s, and having very little education in something like nutrition," said Paul. "Now I am a strong advocate of health prevention."

Labels: Republicans

A new poll conducted Dec. 31 - Jan. 2 by American Research Group shows Hillary Clinton leading her closest Democratic rivals by at least 9 points and Mike Huckabee 5 points up on Mitt Romney. The telephone polls of 600 likely caucus-goers have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

On the Republican side, ARG reported 24% of likely caucus participants were undecided (4%) or said they could switch candidates before the caucus. For Democrats, just 12% of likely caucus participants were undecided (2%) or said that they could switch candidates before the caucus.

See PollWatch for details

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

- Caucus-goers get break from snow

- Edwards: "This wave will go foward"

- Dodd stops in Iowa City, will return this afternoon

- Anti-war protestors target Obama, Romney offices

- Hints on how to gauge who will win the Iowa Caucuses

- White House: Bush may not stay up for results

- Can Obama turn cheers into votes?

- Iowa caucuses 101: Arcane rules have huge impact on outcome

Fred Thompson isn't ready to hand over the Iowa caucus title to GOP rivals Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney quite yet.

In the coming hours, Iowans will get off work, finish with dinner and attend their caucus site to cast their support for the candidate of their choice. With four months of Iowa campaigning under his belt, Thompson is hoping he'll be that candidate.

"Tonight we are going to decide who gets the wind to their back," Thompson told a crowd in excess of 200 people Thursday morning. "I would be less than honest with you if I didn't believe I was that man. With your help, I will be that man."

Thompson said the next leader must understand the difficulties around the world with radical Islamic terrorists.

"This is not the time for a president with training wheels for what is going on in the world," Thompson said. "I know tonight is about more than (candidates') plans. You are electing a leader."

Listen to IowaPolitics.com audio from the Thompson event

Thompson insiders said they are seeing a buzz surrounding the former senator and Republican presidential candidate. The Law and Order actor has been seeing a rise in the polls of late, and campaign insiders said Thursday morning they are noticing a shift in momentum to Thompson when they were phone-banking in recent days.

Despite entering the race in September, Thompson has hit Iowa hard in December, conducing a bus tour for much of the month -- visiting nearly 50 communities in the week leading up to the caucus.

"The crowds have been better and better, and enthusiasm building and building," Thompson said. "We are going to have a wonderful day and a wonderful night."

U.S. Rep. Steve King, who endorsed Thompson in December, attended this morning's event.

Watch King discussing Thompson and the caucuses:

Labels: Republicans

Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards fired up a roomful of chanting supporters at a crowded Steelworkers union hall in Des Moines this morning, delivering a populist message focusing on social issues.

"There is an energy and a momentum behind this campaign that can not be stopped," Edwards said.

The former U.S. senator from North Carolina and Dem vice presidential candidate challenged the supporters to "ensure our children have a better life and that we lead America better than we found it."

"When we give voice to the voiceless. When we speak for 47 million Americans who have no health care coverage, for 37 million who wake up in poverty every single day, for 35 million who went hungry in America last year, for 200,000 veterans who will go to bed under bridges and on grates tonight. When we give them voice, when we stand with them, we say something about America, we say something about the character of America."

The crowd answered Edwards with chants of "Go, John, go," and "We love Elizabeth, we love John. We want to see him on the White House lawn."

At the rally was Democracy for America chairman Jim Dean, brother of former presidential candidate and Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean.

Jim Dean said the organization was not officially endorsing any candidate, but he said they are urging candidates to stick with "progressive values" like ending the war in Iraq and universal health care.

"What we're telling them to do is not listen to who supposedly can win and who supposedly can't. Because all these candidates can win, but it's the one who are committed really doing something about Iraq and health care ... that's what we really want them to do."

Dean said he's hearing turnout will be high, and said he's heard reports that Republicans may try to cross party lines to caucus with Democrats.

"I think you're going to see a higher turnout for sure, I'm just not sure how much," he said, adding that he's not sure if a high turnout will benefit one candidate over another.

Listen to IowaPolitics.com audio of an interview with Dean

Also in attendance was Chuck Rocha, national political director for the Steelworkers. Watch him discuss the union's efforts for Edwards:

Labels: Democrats

Iowa political bloggers have spent months weighing in on the caucus campaign's ups and downs, and several have offered predictions and analysis on the big day.

None of the bloggers have been bold enough to call an upset thus far, placing the front-running candidates well ahead of all the other campaigns. There has not been a consensus on a favorite, however, with picks varying between Clinton, Edwards and Obama on the Dem side, and Huckabee and Romney for the GOP.

"Sensible people aren't making any predictions as to winners in the Iowa Caucuses tomorrow, saying it's too close to call," according to the writers at the conservative-leaning Tusk and Talon. "I'm not afraid to go out on a limb, however, since I have no money on it."

See more in BlogWatch: http://blogs.iowapolitics.com/blogwatch/index.html

The final edition of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows a dip for Hillary Clinton, an expanded lead for Mike Huckabee and move by Ron Paul into a tie for fourth place.

At 31 percent, Huckabee now leads Mitt Romney by six points, his largest lead since the first release of the tracking poll on Dec. 30. Fred Thompson, at 11 percent, moved into sole possession of third place, followed by Ron Paul and John McCain at 10 percent.

Barack Obama also registered 31 percent support, 4 points ahead of John Edwards and 7 points ahead of Hillary Clinton.

Pollster John Zogby reminded readers that his poll predicted the 2004 caucus finish: "Edwards finished this Zogby daily tracking in Iowa in the same place as four years ago, when Zogby correctly identified the finishing order of the candidates in that caucus."

- See more in PollWatch
- See the Reuters press release

UPDATE: Talking Points Memo reports that Zogby says Clinton's performance worsens when second-choice votes for non-viable candidates are taken into account:

Here's what they gave us: Obama 37.5%, Edwards 33.7%, Clinton 28.8%.

The pre-reallocation numbers were Obama 31%, Edwards 27%, Clinton 24%, showing that Hillary's deficit only worsened after second choices were taking into account. There is, however, a caveat: The other candidates' voters are naturally a much, much smaller sample set than the sample as a whole, meaning that second-choice calculations carry a very large margin of error.

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

URBANDALE -- An energetic Sen. Barack Obama told a packed, enthusiastic crowd at Hoover High School they have a chance to prove the cynics and the pundits wrong by propelling him to victory in Thursday's Iowa Caucus.

In a slightly hoarse voice, Obama said pundits are predicting first-time caucus goers wouldn't show up, believing that they're "so disappointed with the politics of the past that you can't reach for the politics of the future."

That is not the case, the presidential hopeful said.

"I believe they are wrong," Obama said to rousing applause.

With Iowa's colleges and universities on holiday break, many pundits are also predicting youth won't attend Thursday and take their democratic responsibilities seriously, Obama said.

"But tomorrow you have the chance to cast a new vision, to set a new direction to this country," he said. "Tomorrow you have a chance to say, 'yes we can.'"

Obama addressed criticism that he talks about hope too much, joking that he's a "hope monger."

"There's nothing in this country worthwhile has ever happened unless somebody, somewhere, was willing to hope," Obama said.

Obama also joked about the theme of change resonating across the campaigns, suggesting he was the first to begin talking about it.

"This whole change thing must be working, because now everybody's talking about change," he said to laughs in the crowd. "That's OK, we want everybody to be involved in the process of transforming this country.

"The question we can answer tomorrow is 'who can best deliver on change,'" Obama said, punctuated by the crowd chanting his name.

The event, which featured actress Scarlett Johansson, drew an estimated crowd of more than 2,000, composed mostly of the young and middle aged prospective caucus goers.

Outside of the gym, several people were selling political buttons and students were selling "Students for Obama" t-shirts they hoped their counterparts would wear to class tomorrow.

See video of the students: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGc54lnGUoU

Labels: Democrats