IowaPolitics.com: Caucus Countdown Blog

Hillary Clinton's campaign moved to downplay the significance of her third place finish as soon as the campaign's press plane was in the air to New Hampshire.

The Wall Street Journal's Amy Chozick reported that a campaign staffer on the plane said Iowa hasn't been a reliable indicator of candidate performance:

"The worst thing would be to over count Iowa and its importance," said chief strategist Mark Penn, just hours after the New York senator finished in a disappointing third place, behind Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

"Iowa doesn't have a record of picking presidents. We're in a strong position to move forward," Penn told a handful of reporters on board a chartered midnight flight that took Clinton staffers and such high-level supporters such as former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright from Des Moines, Iowa, to Manchester, N.H.

The message continued on the ground in New Hampshire.

"Iowa does not have the best track record of determining who the parties nominate," Clinton later told reporters in New Hampshire.

On the Democratic side, six of the last eight top Iowa performers have gone on to win the nomination. See the IowaPolitics.com caucus history page for more.

Labels: Democrats

It appears the independent vote in Iowa may have propelled Sen. Barack Obama to a Democratic Iowa caucus victory Thursday -- entrance polls 57 percent of Dem caucus-goers were there for the first time, and 41 percent of those first-timers went for Obama.

That's good news for a campaign that now will rely on that same voting bloc for a similar outcome in New Hampshire.

"Wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would be a great start," Obama's Iowa co-chair Gordon Fischer said. "If you can win those states back-to-back, that is something to feel good about."

The Obama camp was still reveling in its Iowa victory today. Not only were they celebrating the win, but there was also an excitement created by the senator's margin of victory (nearly eight points ahead of John Edwards and Sen. Hillary Clinton).

"The Clintons aren't going down without a fight," Fischer said. "They never have, and they never will."

But at least for one night, that is a fight Obama, who energized caucus-goers for more than 11 months, will relish and savor.

"We went up against excellent candidates and won big," Fischer said. "Hillary Clinton is so established and has so much support, and John Edwards has lived here for six years."

Though Fischer admits he wasn't privy to internal polling, at his wishes, he noticed a change from the Clinton camp in the days leading up to the caucus coming.

"The Clinton campaign went from the inevitability candidate to tampering down expectations. I have never seen anything like it. It was a case of going from inevitability to survivability. It is difficult to change on a dime like that."

Labels: Democrats

The International Association of Fire Fighters, who had backed Chris Dodd in the caucus campaign, is now holding off an another endorsement until March.

See the story from The Hill: With Dodd out, fire fighters say they will wait until March

Harold A. Schaitberger, general president of the International Association of Fire Fighters, said the organization's choice of Dodd "was never about picking the winner in a horse race."

Schaitberger also said the group never considered backing a second-choice pick.

"We made our original endorsement based on our strong principle and after considerable internal discussion. That's why we didn't ask our members to prepare a Plan B for another candidate if Chris Dodd did not reach his 15 percent threshold at the Iowa caucus. Fire fighters had good reason to support Chris, and we remained with him for as long as he was standing."

Dodd dropped out of the race Thursday night after getting 0.02 percent of state delegates. That finish comes despite the union reporting that it had twice as many members attend the caucuses this year than in 2004.

See the IAFF press release: Fire Fighters Thank Dodd for His Commitment

Labels: Democrats

At Merrill Middle School on the west side of Des Moines, 113 Democrats gathered in the school's library where a Biden volunteer from Fort Lee, New Jersey, (who did not participate in the voting process Thursday night), said she was quite surprised when Chelsea Clinton, daughter of Hillary and Bill Clinton dropped in for a 15-minute visit.

"She (Chelsea) walked in to the room, no cameras, no national media, and I looked at her and said to myself, why, that's Chelsea Clinton," Erin Medlicott, Biden's online communications volunteer manager, said. "I told her, I wish your Mom luck tonight, but not too much luck."

Medlicott said she then looked at Chelsea and pointed to the Biden sticker on the lapel of her own jacket. She said Chelsea remarked, "I like Joe."

Medlicott said she made it a point to pay Chelsea a compliment and she told her that "her hair looked great." She noted that Chelsea was "very friendly" but wasn't sure if her appearance had an impact on results of the delegate selection process at the precinct. She said Clinton ended up with 2 delegates to the Polk County Convention, where Obama and Edwards each received 1 delegate.

Medlicott said she was disappointed in Precinct 60 that there were only 3 people supporting Biden and no one supporting Dodd. "It's the money and the media," she said, assessing Biden's stance in the caucuses. "They concentrated on targeted candidates and Biden was left out."

Labels: Democrats

Joe Biden bade farewell to his 2008 bid to the White House in front of an enthusiastic crowd of supporters downtown tonight.

"There is nothing to be sad about today," said Biden, with his family standing behind him on stage. "I've hoped that we have been able to keep this campaign focused on the issues we talked about."

Although Obama may have came out the ultimate winner in tonight's caucuses, Biden told the crowd that he had no regrets for the campaign he ran.

"A lot of people said it was a great night to be a Democrat. But let me tell you, it's also been a great night to be me," said Biden, receiving a standing ovation and extended applause from the crowd.

Biden also made it clear that he will continue to fight for his ideals in the Senate, even if 2008 wasn't his year to win the presidency.

"I'll be going back to the Senate as the chairman of the foreign relations committee," said Biden. He later explained that if the eventual Democratic nominee wins the general election, he will hold them accountable to the promises that they make on the campaign trail.

Labels: Democrats

From Sen. Chris Dodd's withdrawal speech:

Tonight I am withdrawing from the Presidential race. But let me assure you, we do not exit this race with our heads hanging -- rather, we do so with our heads held high.

Whether it is restoring the Constitution to the American people, standing up to this President to end this war, or starting the discussion about what it will really take to tackle global warming and bring the country together, we stand confident that the difference we made in this race will endure longer than any speech, any election or any political campaign. ...

Tonight, I am infused with a renewed sense of purpose and energy, having learned so much from the hopes and dreams of the good people of Iowa, New Hampshire and others around the country.

I will carry the determination and courage of this campaign, as well as the result-oriented leadership I offered, back to the important battles that need to be won for the future of our country.

As I have for 26 years, I intend to serve by building broad, bipartisan support for bold ideas rooted in Democratic principles, turning them into national policies.

I commit that the fights we've waged in this campaign will not end tonight, from our Constitution to reversing global warming.

Whether it is the dozens that worked the field ... the hundreds that worked the phones ... or the tens of thousands that took to the blogs, I will make sure that the voices that spoke with us in this campaign are not forgotten but amplified.

Not ignored -- but championed.

Read his full remarks

Dodd supporters were disappointed to see him leave the race.

"He is a quality guy and a proven leader. It is a real shame that he is no longer in the running," Gina Bettrane said. "I think that he will go on to serve the people in one form or another for a very long time."

Dodd supporter Bob Mulqueen said he was saddened by the senator dropping out of the race, but took comfort in seeing the strength of the other Democratic candidates.

"The Democratic Party has an embarrassment of riches," Mulqueen said. "I just wish that some of these other stellar candidates stressed civil liberties as much as Dodd does."

Labels: Democrats

Joe Biden has told his supporters he's dropping out of the presidential race. Some of them had tearful reactions to the news.

He said he's heading back to the Senate.

Labels: Democrats

Barack Obama proclaimed that if New Hampshire gives him the same chance that Iowa did tonight, "I will be the president of America."

A crowd of thousands jubilantly greeted Obama as he took the stage at Hy-Vee Hall.

"They said this day would never come" Obama said.

Speaking before his supporters, he promised he would continue his message of hope into New Hampshire and beyond in his pursuit of the presidency.

Obama thanked his supporters for doing "what the cynics said we couldn't do."

"Together, ordinary people can do extraordinary things because we are not a collection of red states and blue states," Obama said. "We are the United States of America at this moment, in this election, we are ready to believe again."

At various spots in the speech, the crowd chanted "Obama" and "U.S.A." as Obama continued to stress his theme of hope.

"We are choosing hope over fear. We're choosing unity over division and sending a powerful message that change is coming to America," Obama said.

He thanked those who worked for his campaign and remembered his days as an organizer on the streets of Chicago. He told them he could relate to the frustrating nights that come along with a campaign and but told "sometimes there are nights like this."

"You'll be able to look back with pride and say this is the moment that it all began," Obama said.

Marilyn Nichols of Des Moines said she wasn't surprised by the outcome because she knows how hard Iowa volunteers worked for Obama. And she doesn't think the momentum will stop here.

"If he has good workers like he did in Iowa, he will continue to the White House," she said.

Nichols didn't hesitate when asked what the outcome of the caucus meant.

"Change," she said. "It's time for a change."

Tom Corron of Waukee said there was a record turnout in his precinct, which helped Obama. He said Obama represents the kind of change this country needs, and his victory represents a change in this country.

"It's time we had someone like Barack in the office, and I'll be proud to see that," he said.

IowaPolitics.com video:
- Isiserettes pump up Obama crowd

Labels: Democrats

The Iowa Democratic Party released the following turnout information tonight and will update this information later in the evening:

With 99.2 percent of the precincts reporting we are seeing record turnout with 236,000 caucus attendees.

Labels: Democrats

According to an MSNBC story:

Dodd abandoned his campaign a few hours after the caucus ended, and it seemed possible the field would grow even smaller before New Hampshire votes on Tuesday.

Labels: Democrats

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson finished in fourth place in today's Iowa caucuses. He said that would move his campaign forward to the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8.

"We made it to the final four," Richardson said. "My staff and volunteers worked their hearts out to get us here. Now we are going to take the fight to New Hampshire."

After watching the results at a rally in Des Moines, he boarded a plane for New Hampshire.

Labels: Democrats

After finishing just behind John Edwards in the caucuses, Hillary Clinton addressed her supporters Thursday evening, making it clear that she still plans to be the Democratic nominee.

"We're taking this enthusiasm and going right to New Hampshire," Clinton told a screaming crowd at the Hotel Fort Des Moines.

Saying she was "so proud to have run with such exceptional candidates," Clinton congratulated Obama and Edwards for their first and second place finishes, respectively.

"This has been a great night for Democrats," she said. "We have seen an unprecedented turnout here in Iowa and that is good news because today we are sending a clear message that we are going to have change, and that change will be a Democratic president in the White House."

She said it was important to keep the race focused on two things: How Democrats will win in November by nominating a candidate "able to go the distance" and who will be the best president "from day one."

"I am ready for that contest," Clinton told supporters.

In an attempt to downplay her third-place finish in the state, Clinton said she "had planned to run a national campaign all along" and was looking forward to hitting the ground in New Hampshire.

"I am so ready for the rest of this campaign," Clinton said. "I know that we're going to get up tomorrow and keep pushing as hard as we can to get the message out about what is at stake in this election."

She ticked off a series of initiatives, from ending the war in Iraq to energy independence and referenced her book "It Takes a Village," which includes a chapter about her belief that each child needs a champion.

"I think the American people need a president who is their champion, and that is who I intend to be," she said.

Long-time Clinton supporters were disappointed and surprised by her third-place finish. Gisselle Davis said she believed Clinton had the support and the substance to win the caucuses.

"Like a lot of people are, I am excited about the thought of a woman president," Davis said. "Plus, I believe Clinton has the best policy on the important things like health care and Iraq."

Joe Halterman also expected Clinton to come out on top, saying it seemed inevitable that she would finish in first-place.

"I love Bill Clinton, and I think enough people feel the same way and want him back in the White House," Halterman said. "Hillary gained a lot of experience while she was the First Lady and now as a Senator. I believe she will go on to win the nomination even after loosing here tonight."

Labels: Democrats

Obama backers could be heard celebrating through the halls of the downtown's Skywalk. Inside the massive hall the campaign reserved for the event, the atmosphere was electric.

A local youth drum and dance corps played furiously as supporters danced, cheered and embraced. And they cheered the results that continued to show their candidate pulling away from the field.

Labels: Democrats

CNN is reporting that Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd is dropping out of the race.

Labels: Democrats

John Edwards addressed followers during his ongoing battle for second place in the caucuses by charging them to leave America better than they found it.

He characterized his primary rivals as "two candidates who thought their money would make them inevitable," but said that Americans standing for change would be unstoppable.

"We're better than this," Edwards said. "What happened tonight is that the Iowa caucus goers said 'We want something different.'"

Edwards' Iowa communications director Dan Leistikow said the high caucus turnout numbers are proof that voters are looking for change.

"The debate really is what kind of change do we want in this country," he said. "We think John Edwards represents the kind of change people want."

Leistikow said the North Carolina Dem's close finish despite being outspent 5-1 by his two main rivals shows the strength of his message, and he scoffed at pundit predictions that the loss tonight is the beginning of the end for Edwards.

"The thing we learned in Iowa is that these contests aren't decided by pundits, they're decided by caucus-goers and voters," he said.

Labels: Democrats

From the Democratic caucus results Web site:

95.9% reporting

Obama : 37.46%
Edwards : 29.93%
Clinton : 29.43%
Richardson : 2.11%
Biden : .93%
Uncommitted : .12%
Dodd : 0.02%

Labels: Democrats

Obama strategist David Axelrod spoke with MSNBC from a raucous Obama caucus headquarters about his candidate's victory, and the coalition that could carry the campaign through to other states.

"This was such a meaningful victory, not just because of how it turned out but because of the composition of that victory," Axelrod said, adding that the Obama campaign drew young people to caucus in unprecedented numbers.

"We're not taking anything for granted. This was a great start," Axelrod said of moving on to New Hampshire. "The hunger for change isn't just limited to Iowa."

Labels: Democrats

Edwards supporters began to file in to the reception at the Savery Hotel at about 8:30 p.m., just as major networks were declaring victory for Obama.

John and Heidi Hagen had caucused in Des Moines earlier in the night, and were sipping cold beers as they watched CNN analyze the results. John Hagen said at their precinct, a majority of the Biden and Richardson supporters gravitated to Edwards, but he still finished behind Clinton in that caucus.
But, despite some pundits saying Edwards bid is now all but over, Hagen said Edwards' fight isn't over.

"It's not over 'til it's over," he said. "The guy's a fighter. And that's what we need now."

Labels: Democrats

Edwards campaign senior adviser Joe Trippi spoke with MSNBC and characterized the battle for second place with Hillary Clinton as "a strong night for us."

He said the votes for Edwards represented a repudiation of Washington, and that the race remains a "three-way dead heat."

"Clinton doesn't have a whole lot to talk about with this finish. We feel very good about where we are," Trippi said. "We got massively outspent here and held our own."

Labels: Democrats

From the Democratic caucus results Web site:

86% reporting

Obama : 36.84%
Edwards : 30.11%
Clinton : 29.92%
Richardson : 2.07%
Biden : .94%
Uncommitted : .10%
Dodd : 0.03%

Labels: Democrats

Chris Matthews just said NBC News is projecting Barack Obama as the winner of the Democratic caucuses.

Labels: Democrats

From the Democratic caucus results Web site:

66.5% reporting

Obama : 34.90%
Edwards : 31.26%
Clinton : 31.03%
Richardson : 1.70%
Biden : .96%
Uncommitted : .12%
Dodd : 0.03%

Labels: Democrats

From the Democratic caucus results Web site:

Senator Barack Obama : 34.06%
Senator John Edwards : 31.71%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.45%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.76%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.05%
Uncommitted : 0.03%

Precincts Reporting: 923 of 1781

Labels: Democrats

The Democratic caucus crowd doubled from 2000 to 2004, and party officials said leading up to tonight they expect a larger turnout than the more than 120,000 that attended four years ago.

"We were prepared for record turnout," Iowa Democratic Party Communications Director Carrie Giddins said. "We are hearing about lines getting into precincts, which is good that Democrats are excited to caucus."

KCCI-TV is airing video from Democratic site at Merrill Middle School where the event is standing room only. Barack Obama's crowd was so large it had to be moved from the commons area to the hallway.

Labels: Democrats

With 367 precincts out of 1,781 reporting, John Edwards has 33 percent of the vote, followed closely by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama each reporting close to 32 percent. Richardson and Biden trail with 2 and 1 percent, respectively.

Labels: Democrats

Polk County Republican Chairman Ted Sporer says scores of Republicans in his precinct have switched over to the Democratic side for the night in order to vote for Barack Obama.

"If anything it's more an anti-Hillary vote than a for-Obama vote," Sporer said. "Most of them are saying they are going to vote for Obama and vote outright against Hillary."

He said it wasn't an organized effort.

"This is spontaneous," he said. "Hillary Clinton is the most divisive candidate -- moreso than Richard Nixon was in Watergate."

Sporer also predicted the Republicans would come back to the GOP in November.

Des Moines lawyer Tom Whitney, a long-time Democratic activist, confirmed that hundreds of people had changed their party affiliation, primarily to vote for Obama. He said he doesn't think it's an anti-Hillary vote but credited Obama's draw as a candidate.

Whitney and Sporer are at Indian Hills Junior High School in Clive, where three caucuses are being held -- two Democratic caucuses (from West Des Moines and one from Clive) and one Republican caucus from a Clive precinct.

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

The Democratic caucuses are underway.

Find caucus results here: http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/

Labels: Democrats

Caucus day has seen a flurry of stories about potential second-choice deals on the Democratic side.

Officially, the campaigns have denied any moves to back another candidate.

But IowaPolitics.com has learned in eastern and southern Iowa, caucus-goers on the ground supporting Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd may help each other become viable on the second ballot.

And in some regions, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson's supporters may be moving toward Sen. Barack Obama if Richardson is not viable.

One Democratic caucus veteran insider said the move to make the lower-tier candidate viable or to cast support to Obama is a strategy to prevent Sen. Hillary Clinton from gaining momentum going into New Hampshire.

See related links:
- Biden, Dodd & Richardson to Iowans: Make your own decision
- Obama-Richardson Deal Goes Both Ways in Certain Precincts and Counties
- Is Obama a Plan B for Richardson Voters?
- Biden Staffer: Our People Likely To Go For Obama

Labels: Democrats

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett says he plans to attend one of the caucuses in Des Moines tonight , the first time he's ever done so.

Barrett, who is in Iowa to support Sen. Barack Obama, said that even though Democrats and Republicans run their caucuses differently, both get supporters involved at the grassroots level.

"To me that's really important, particularly in presidential politics where the American people can be very cynical because so much of it is driven by polls and media advertising," Barrett said.

Many of Obama's supporters are young and first-time caucus goers, which has led some pundits to question whether they'll show up.

"Normally, that would potentially be the case," Barrett said, "but I think they spent so much time organizing and working to make sure people do come and I think that's going to be very helpful at the end of the day."

Barrett spent yesterday and the first half of today in Dubuque meeting with party members, undecided voters and working the phones.

Barrett said Obama staffers, like those in other campaigns, are hopeful and optimistic.

"Everybody is doing everything they can here in the eleventh hour," Barrett said.

He said he had not had a chance to meet with Obama in person on the trip yet, but likely will tonight in Des Moines.

Labels: Democrats

Phyllis Hughes-Ewing swooped into the West Des Moines headquarters of Dem hopeful Joe Biden to pick up some more campaign stickers a few hours before the caucus this afternoon. The front room was a buzzing with activity and excitement.

"A lot of people are going to wake up tomorrow with a big Iowa omelette on their face because they sold Joe Biden short," she predicted.

Hughes-Ewing is the daughter of former Iowa U.S. Senator and Governor Harold Hughes. Biden's first term in the Senate overlapped with her father's last, she said.

"I was pretty convinced he would go far even then," she said. "He's always been one of my heroes."

In another part of the room, volunteer Tom Chapman of Seaford, Del., was giving last-minute instructions on message to a young Iowa caucus-goer.

"I've given up most of my Christmas vacation to come out here and help out," said Chapman, a teacher.

Labels: Democrats

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Chris Dodd was unable to make a quick stop at his campaign headquarter in Des Moines because of a 4:15 p.m local media interview at the Polk County Convention Center. Dodd was scheduled to meet and greet the volunteers helping man the phone banks of his campaign at 4 p.m., but he was still traveling on the road from his recent rally this afternoon in Iowa City.

Like many of the presidential hopefuls Dodd campaigned across the state until Iowans walk into their caucus locations.

After his interview with the media at the convention center, he is slated to make a 6:30 p.m. appearance at a Democratic precinct at Hoover High School in Urbandale. After his appearance at the high school, he will be at the Temple for Performing Arts in Des Moines for his Caucus Night Celebration at around 7 p.m.

Labels: Democrats

A new poll conducted Dec. 31 - Jan. 2 by American Research Group shows Hillary Clinton leading her closest Democratic rivals by at least 9 points and Mike Huckabee 5 points up on Mitt Romney. The telephone polls of 600 likely caucus-goers have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

On the Republican side, ARG reported 24% of likely caucus participants were undecided (4%) or said they could switch candidates before the caucus. For Democrats, just 12% of likely caucus participants were undecided (2%) or said that they could switch candidates before the caucus.

See PollWatch for details

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards fired up a roomful of chanting supporters at a crowded Steelworkers union hall in Des Moines this morning, delivering a populist message focusing on social issues.

"There is an energy and a momentum behind this campaign that can not be stopped," Edwards said.

The former U.S. senator from North Carolina and Dem vice presidential candidate challenged the supporters to "ensure our children have a better life and that we lead America better than we found it."

"When we give voice to the voiceless. When we speak for 47 million Americans who have no health care coverage, for 37 million who wake up in poverty every single day, for 35 million who went hungry in America last year, for 200,000 veterans who will go to bed under bridges and on grates tonight. When we give them voice, when we stand with them, we say something about America, we say something about the character of America."

The crowd answered Edwards with chants of "Go, John, go," and "We love Elizabeth, we love John. We want to see him on the White House lawn."

At the rally was Democracy for America chairman Jim Dean, brother of former presidential candidate and Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean.

Jim Dean said the organization was not officially endorsing any candidate, but he said they are urging candidates to stick with "progressive values" like ending the war in Iraq and universal health care.

"What we're telling them to do is not listen to who supposedly can win and who supposedly can't. Because all these candidates can win, but it's the one who are committed really doing something about Iraq and health care ... that's what we really want them to do."

Dean said he's hearing turnout will be high, and said he's heard reports that Republicans may try to cross party lines to caucus with Democrats.

"I think you're going to see a higher turnout for sure, I'm just not sure how much," he said, adding that he's not sure if a high turnout will benefit one candidate over another.

Listen to IowaPolitics.com audio of an interview with Dean

Also in attendance was Chuck Rocha, national political director for the Steelworkers. Watch him discuss the union's efforts for Edwards:

Labels: Democrats

The final edition of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows a dip for Hillary Clinton, an expanded lead for Mike Huckabee and move by Ron Paul into a tie for fourth place.

At 31 percent, Huckabee now leads Mitt Romney by six points, his largest lead since the first release of the tracking poll on Dec. 30. Fred Thompson, at 11 percent, moved into sole possession of third place, followed by Ron Paul and John McCain at 10 percent.

Barack Obama also registered 31 percent support, 4 points ahead of John Edwards and 7 points ahead of Hillary Clinton.

Pollster John Zogby reminded readers that his poll predicted the 2004 caucus finish: "Edwards finished this Zogby daily tracking in Iowa in the same place as four years ago, when Zogby correctly identified the finishing order of the candidates in that caucus."

- See more in PollWatch
- See the Reuters press release

UPDATE: Talking Points Memo reports that Zogby says Clinton's performance worsens when second-choice votes for non-viable candidates are taken into account:

Here's what they gave us: Obama 37.5%, Edwards 33.7%, Clinton 28.8%.

The pre-reallocation numbers were Obama 31%, Edwards 27%, Clinton 24%, showing that Hillary's deficit only worsened after second choices were taking into account. There is, however, a caveat: The other candidates' voters are naturally a much, much smaller sample set than the sample as a whole, meaning that second-choice calculations carry a very large margin of error.

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

URBANDALE -- An energetic Sen. Barack Obama told a packed, enthusiastic crowd at Hoover High School they have a chance to prove the cynics and the pundits wrong by propelling him to victory in Thursday's Iowa Caucus.

In a slightly hoarse voice, Obama said pundits are predicting first-time caucus goers wouldn't show up, believing that they're "so disappointed with the politics of the past that you can't reach for the politics of the future."

That is not the case, the presidential hopeful said.

"I believe they are wrong," Obama said to rousing applause.

With Iowa's colleges and universities on holiday break, many pundits are also predicting youth won't attend Thursday and take their democratic responsibilities seriously, Obama said.

"But tomorrow you have the chance to cast a new vision, to set a new direction to this country," he said. "Tomorrow you have a chance to say, 'yes we can.'"

Obama addressed criticism that he talks about hope too much, joking that he's a "hope monger."

"There's nothing in this country worthwhile has ever happened unless somebody, somewhere, was willing to hope," Obama said.

Obama also joked about the theme of change resonating across the campaigns, suggesting he was the first to begin talking about it.

"This whole change thing must be working, because now everybody's talking about change," he said to laughs in the crowd. "That's OK, we want everybody to be involved in the process of transforming this country.

"The question we can answer tomorrow is 'who can best deliver on change,'" Obama said, punctuated by the crowd chanting his name.

The event, which featured actress Scarlett Johansson, drew an estimated crowd of more than 2,000, composed mostly of the young and middle aged prospective caucus goers.

Outside of the gym, several people were selling political buttons and students were selling "Students for Obama" t-shirts they hoped their counterparts would wear to class tomorrow.

See video of the students: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGc54lnGUoU

Labels: Democrats

Singer John Mellencamp entertained a crowd of John Edwards backers in Des Moines Wednesday night.

Elizabeth Edwards called the Hall of Fame artist the voice of the Heartland and the voice of the working man before she introduced her husband as the "political voice of the working man in this country."

Coming off his 36-hour bus tour meeting caucus goers, Edwards fired up a crowd in excess of 3,000. On the campaign trail, Edwards has informed Iowans he is the son of a mill worker. Wednesday night, Iowans met that mill worker.

Edwards introduced his father Wallace and mother Bobbie, who were seated on the stage with a star-studded cast including actors James Denton, Madeline Stowe and Jean Smart, as well as Iowa First Lady Mari Culver.

Despite the celebrity backdrop, Edwards stressed he has not forgotten his roots.

"We went to that house, and remembered how hard it was to grow up in that mill village," Edwards said.

"It is time to tell a little truth. There are some obstacles in our way," said Edwards, citing corporate interference in keeping universal health care from becoming a reality. Also, he stressed their involvement in skewed trade policies. "This is insanity. It must stop."

Edwards said he takes it as a personal mission to show some backbone against corporate greed.

"My father, I watched him get up every day for 36 years to give me a better life," he said. "We owe a responsibility to our children and a future generation."

He asked Iowans for their support Thursday night when they turn out to caucus.

"Tomorrow night you need to send a fighter and warrior to Washington on your behalf," he said. "If you are smart enough, you can beat these people. We can win this. I am doing what is right. I am standing on principle We are going to make sure the American people hear the truth."

Edwards told the audience they are smart enough to know who will fight for them on their behalf. He shared a story of getting into a fight as a youngster. He remembered his father told him not to start a fight, but not to walk away from one either. He said he would fight for the American people.

"For those of you who don't know what to do tomorrow night in the back of the room, you can find out," Edwards said. "Go to the caucus, stand up, speak out, change this country, show what you are made up, show what your courage is, show what your character is, let's make America a country all of us are proud of for our children, for our grandchildren. God bless you. Go to the caucus tomorrow night and let's change America together."

Listen to IowaPolitics.com audio of Edwards and Mellencamp

Labels: Democrats

Former President Bill Clinton knows his wife Sen. Hillary Clinton well. And, with the Iowa caucus less than 24 hours out, the man who understands what it takes to be president gave a glowing endorsement Wednesday night for his wife, who wants to occupy the Oval Office.

"This country needs a great president," said Bill Clinton, just prior to introducing the New York senator. "A great president needs the right vision, the plans to implement that vision, the ability to really make change in other people's lives. She's been doing that her whole life."

The Democratic presidential hopeful, who's clustered together with Sen. Barack Obama and John Edwards in the polls, touched on several subjects during her 15-minute stump speech, but issues surrounding foreign policy were reiterated to the crowd which packed the second-floor walkways, stairways, and lobby area of the Iowa Historical Building.

"There's a lot to be done in America and around the world, but I am confident that we are up to the task," Clinton said.

Sitting to her left in the front row of the event were Gen. Wesley Clark, former Secretary of State Madeline Albright, actor Ted Danson and former chairman of the Democratic National Committee Terry McAuliffe.

Toward the end of her speech, Clinton made a final appeal to all undecided caucus-goers to make her their first choice.

"I'm asking you to go and stand for me for a night so that I can stand up and fight for you throughout this campaign until we win in November of 2008, and then work my heart out for the country we love," Clinton said. "Together, we will restore pride and progress in America, and together we will make history."

Labels: Democrats

Both the Iowa Democratic Party and the Republican Party of Iowa are planning to offer live caucus results on Thursday.

The IDP's site is http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/

RPI results will be available at the RPI Web site, http://www.iowagop.net

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

On the eve of the Iowa caucus, the Barack Obama's campaign released a new two-minute TV ad that aired throughout Iowa.

In the ad, titled "Leader," Obama talks about how he has spent his life working for change. He says he can "finally solve problems we talk about year after year after year" and "end the division, the obscene influence of lobbyists, and the politics that values scoring points over making progress."

See the ad script and press release

Labels: Democrats

Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton are each due to make an appearance on late-night TV tonight.

Clinton's hitting the Late Show with David Letterman while Huckabee's due on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno.

During a stop in Bettendorf Republican Mitt Romney took a jab at Huckabee for his decision, saying "my focus is on the caucuses here in Iowa. I think Mike is more concerned about the caucus in Los Angeles."

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

A new 60-second ad from the John Edwards campaign will run statewide this evening featuring Doug Bishop, a laid-off worker at the Maytag plant in Newton.

See a previous Caucus Countdown Blog post on the ad

Labels: Democrats

Joe Biden (D)
-- 8 a.m.: Caucus day rally, Jameson's, 310 E. 4th St., Waterloo
-- 11 a.m.: Caucus day rally, UAW Hall, 3450 Central Ave., Dubuque
-- 1:30 p.m.: Caucus day rally, Mojo's Coffee House, 129 Main St., Davenport, IA
-- 9 p.m.: Caucus rally, Science Center, 401 West Martin Luther King Jr. Parkway, Des Moines

Hillary Clinton (D)
-- 8:30 p.m.: Caucus night celebration, Hotel Fort Des Moines, Grand Ballroom, 1000 Walnut St., Des Moines

Chris Dodd (D)
-- 8 a.m.: "Caucus for Results" celebration, Capanna Coffee, 136 S. Dubuque St., Iowa City
-- 10:30 a.m.: Meet and greet with caucus-goers, Witwer Senior Center, 305 2nd St. SE, Cedar Rapids
-- 1 p.m.: Meet and greet with caucus-goers, Iowa City
-- 4 p.m.: Caucus day phone banking, Dodd for President Iowa Headquarters, 1115 Grand
Ave., Des Moines
-- 6:30 p.m.: Meet and greet at caucus precinct site, Hoover High School, 4800 Aurora
Ave., Des Moines
-- 7 p.m.: Caucus night celebration, Temple for the Performing Arts, Grand Hall, 1011 Locust St., Des Moines

John Edwards (D)
-- 8:30 a.m.: Thanks volunteers and rallies supporters, United Steelworkers Local 164, 2727 E. Market St., Des Moines
-- 11:30 a.m.: Caucus day event, The Mill Restaurant, 120 E. Burlington St., Iowa City
-- 2:30 p.m.: Thanks volunteers and rallies supporters, John Edwards for President Cedar Rapids office, 118 3rd Ave. SE, Suite 430, Cedar Rapids
-- 7 p.m.: "Your Time is Now" Caucus night rally, Renaissance Savery Hotel, Terrance Ballroom, 2nd Floor, 400 Locust St., Des Moines

Barack Obama (D)
-- 9 p.m.: Caucus night with Barack Obama, Hy-Vee Hall C, 730 3rd St., Des Moines

Bill Richardson (D)
-- Caucus night watch party, Quality Inn & Suites Event Center, Ballroom, 929 3rd St., Des Moines

Labels: Democrats

• AP: Democrats take to the air with final pitches in Iowa
• Radio Iowa: Weather, date, may play key role in turnout for Iowa Caucuses
• Radio Iowa: Buoyed by new poll, McCain returns for final hour campaigning
• KCCI: Romney dismisses latest Register poll
• KCCI: Edwards 36-hour campaign tour ends tonight
• DM Register: Huckabee paints himself as the 'underdog' in caucuses
• DM Register: Clinton showcased as 'girlfriend' and leader
• DM Register: Obama continues message, indirect comparisons
• CBS News: Joe Biden fights for survival in Iowa
• CBS News: Does Iowa matter?
• CNN: Second-tier Dems brave single-digit temperatures
• CNN: Candidates make their closing arguments in Iowa

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

With the Democratic presidential race locked in a tight, three-way battle, the Oval Office hopefuls seem unwilling to rock the boat with the caucus set for tomorrow. As the candidates crisscross Iowa in the hopes of solidifying their support and attracting new voters, they aren't straying from the pages of their tried-and-true stump speeches.

"It is the top three on the Democratic side who are doing this – who are repeating their same not even stump speech, but stump phrase over and over again," says Rachel Paine-Caufield, political science professor at Drake University. "You have to go into the caucuses with momentum. I don't see any one candidate with momentum above the others."

Perhaps candidates are smart not to say anything sensational at their final campaign events, those close to the process say: "At this stage, the worse thing any one of the candidates can do is flub something," Caufield said. It's certainly true that one misstep could be very costly this close to the caucuses.

"You have three people clustered together. The last thing a candidate wants to do is introduce a wacky idea or offend someone," a long-time Iowa Democratic insider said. "Things are so tight that the goal now is to excite more voters and not give them a reason to vote against you."

But perhaps it's worth the gamble for the want-to-be nominees to shoot big now. At least some Iowans are looking for more inspiration before gathering tomorrow night at community centers, schools, and religious centers to support their candidate of choice.

At least partially paralyzed by their fear of saying or doing something that would cost them the support of likely caucus-goers, the candidates may be missing an opportunity.

"Putting a little bit of time and energy into coming up with something new in the finals days, I think it could give them tremendous media coverage and bring those undecided voters to them," Caulfield said. "Doing something that would put the spotlight on a candidate now would be huge for that particular campaign, making them appear fresh while everyone else looks stale,"

There is a history of aggressive campaign tactics backfiring in the days leading up to the caucus. Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were the two frontrunners going into the 2004 Iowa caucus, and their constant attacks resulted into third and fourth-place finishes, respectively, many pundits said.

"People look at Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean and say there were two guys in the running who were slinging mud and shaking their fists, and Iowans got turned off," the Democratic source said.

But on the Republican side, Mitt Romney continues to contrast his positions with those of GOP rival Mike Huckabee.

One Iowa Republican strategist questioned the Democrats' decision to play it safe.

"As the old saying goes in football, the only thing a prevent defense does is prevent you from winning," the GOP strategist said. "There are still caucus-goers who are undecided. I don't understand why they wouldn't try to capture that support."

In the past, zingers from campaign events have gone on to make headlines and be discussed for weeks to come on the morning news programs and cable talk shows.

While video clips of Barack Obama promising change and Hillary Clinton touting her experience continue to be replayed again and again on the cable networks, there's an increasingly large void to be filled by new content, even if it is only a fresh sound bite.

Anyone who has attended any John Edwards events lately knows that the former senator is spending a lot of time talking about fighting. From his working class upbringing in a mill town, to his championing of the middle class and taking on corporate lobbyists, Edwards' supporters love to hear him talk about fighting for the little guy.

But some caucus-watchers say Edwards and the other frontrunners are lacking any sort of new battle cry that would spike media coverage and excitement.

Come Friday morning, all the pundits will be talking about how each one of the campaigns could have done something differently. Time will tell if they are all guilty of playing it too safe.

Labels: Democrats

Chris Dodd appeared in Indianola Wednesday afternoon, telling Iowans that while he is committed to his presidential campaign and wants to be the Democratic nominee, he will never skip out on his duties as a U.S. senator.

"I've been elected by the people of Connecticut to the United States Senate to defend and uphold the Constitution of the United States," Dodd said.

Referring to the days he left the campaign trail to return to Washington, D.C., and battled against a bill that would have let phone companies off the hook for turning customer records over to the government without a court order, Dodd said his fellow presidential candidates from the Senate should have been there with him.

"Let me say this as respectfully as I know how – where were those other three senators that I serve with? They drove all the way back for the farm bill, which was great politics here in Iowa," he said. "Why didn't they come back and stand with me for eleven hours when the phone companies were almost given immunity?"

Vowing to fight against the legislation if it is proposed again, Dodd said Iowans and all Americans could count on that same dedication if he were to be the next president. Saying that Democrats needed to reach out not only to Independents, but also Republicans who want to see a change in the way politicians govern, Dodd said his rhetoric matches his actions.

"It's not just about promises made, it is about promises kept," he said.

Labels: Democrats

CEDAR RAPIDS -- In a fiery hour-plus speech, presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton portrayed herself as the candidate for change in the field of Democrats as Iowans head to caucus tomorrow.

"Some people think you bring about change by demanding it, and others think you bring about change by hoping for it," said Clinton, a U.S. senator from New York. "I think you bring about change by working really, really hard for it."

Clinton, speaking at Kirkwood Community College in Cedar Rapids this afternoon, reserved most of her barbs for the Bush administration. She touched on her efforts to provide universal health care, saying it is "morally wrong" that coverage health insurance coverage isn't provided to every citizen.

"When I am president we are going to stand our ground against the drug companies and health insurance companies," she said.

She also blasted an old plan by President Bush to privatize the Social Security system.

"As long as I'm around you'll never have to worry about privatizing Social Security," Clinton promised.

The former First Lady played up her role in brokering peace in Northern Ireland during her husband Bill's administration, saying the United States can again play the role of peacemaker in world affairs.

"I think we can have once again a president who pursues policies that are both right and smart for America," she said.

If elected, Clinton said she will pursue a troop withdrawal from Iraq within the first 60 days of her administration, and ask the government of Iraq to "[take] responsibility for their own country."


Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack introduced Clinton to the crowd, calling her the person "best prepared to be president from Day One."

The Cedar Rapids stop was Clinton's third of the day. She had an earlier stop to thank supporters in Des Moines, and made a speech at a rally in Indianola.

Clinton was greeted enthusiastically by the crowd, estimated by the campaign to have reached 500. At several points she received loud applause and chants of "Hill-a-ry" from the crowd, despite some electrical problems that caused her microphone to cut out on a couple of occasions.

Linda Peterson, 63, Cedar Rapids, is participating in her fourth caucus tomorrow. She said she'll be supporting Clinton because of her health care positions, and included that the war in Iraq is also an important issue for her.

Peterson said she was impressed that Clinton spoke for an hour without using notes.

Nancy Domer, 70, Marion, said she decided this week to vote for Clinton. She chose Clinton for her experience, and while she likes his message, she worries that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama doesn't have enough experience.

Domer and Peterson said they had their picture taken with Clinton, who put her arm around them.

See more photos from the Clinton event

IowaPolitics.com video:
- An enthusiatic crowd awaits Clinton in Cedar Rapids
- Law school chums travel to Iowa to support Clinton
- Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack says Clinton prepared to lead
- Clinton supporter at Cedar Rapids rally
- Clinton supporters at Cedar Rapids rally

Labels: Democrats

In the next 24 hours, the results of a year of organizing and campaigning across Iowa will be known.

Campaigns are working their phone banks and contacting precinct captains and volunteers in preparation for tomorrow night's caucus, which begins at 7 p.m. across the state. With the eyes of the world focusing on Iowa, campaign staffs are working diligently on turnout.

Mike Huckabee's campaign director Eric Woolson turned in at 1:15 this morning and was back at it just before 4 a.m. Some staffers have not been to sleep since Monday night. Though sleep is considered a luxury nowadays, the campaign is excited about tomorrow night's caucus.

"The mood is very upbeat, energized -- exactly what you'd expect from a campaign with momentum, and a campaign written off early by pundits and is exceeding every expectation because we have an exceptional candidate with solid conservative credentials whose message has energized Iowans," Woolson said. "Behind the scenes, everyone is working as hard as humanely possible."

Democrat John Edwards was knocking on doors in the wee hours this morning on his 36-hour push to the caucus tour. His campaign is also very upbeat.

"We feel very good about our organization and the growing momentum behind the campaign," John Edwards Iowa communications director Dan Leistikow said. "John Edwards is surging in Iowa as more and more undecideds break his way based on his commitment to fighting for the change middle class families need. He is going to continue making his case directly to the people of Iowa and stay focused on his message of taking on powerful interests on behalf of regular people."

Republican Mitt Romney's staff is also burning the candle at both ends, and also relying on campaign volunteers to make a push for a caucus victory.

"Hundreds of volunteers are actively working to turn out the vote for us," Romney spokesperson Tim Albrecht said. "The campaign is upbeat. We had a great bus tour, and are looking forward to tomorrow night."

Despite polling in the single digits, Sen. Joe Biden's campaign is excited about the Democrat's chances in the caucus. Biden spoke to more than 500 people yesterday in Des Moines and nearly 300 in Mason City.

"There is excitement like you've never seen in this office," a Biden insider said.

Staffers for Chris Dodd, another candidate suffering from poor poll performance, are upbeat as well.

"The mood here is great," press secretary Taylor West wrote in an e-mail. "Senator Dodd has been traveling all over the state, and we're drawing the best crowds of the campaign so far. (350 in Waterloo on New Year's Eve, 250 in Cedar Rapids on New Year's Day, 210 in Ames this morning, another 150 in Indianola this afternoon.) ... There's been a real sense over the last week or two that as people have started focusing in more seriously on the kind of candidate and President that we need, Senator Dodd's proven record of results is causing people to really give him a second look."

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

IowaPolitics.com subscribers each week receive a Political Stock Report tracking the ups and downs of major political figures and issues, using views from insiders and observers.

Here is a special pre-caucus night edition of the IowaPolitics.com Political Stock Report as of early Wednesday morning.

See other recent columns

POLITICAL STOCK REPORT
(Through the morning of Wed. Jan. 2, 2008)

RISING

John Edwards: After falling out of the top spot in Iowa polls earlier in 2007, Edwards' performance trended upwards throughout December, and there's a sense among insiders that his climb in the polls will be reflected on the ground. He's essentially been building an Iowa organization for more than four years, and his backers are confident that will be the difference on caucus night. With Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton hammering on each other along the campaign trail, conventional wisdom from caucus-goers and Iowa insiders says the confrontational approach may hurt them and could vault Edwards into the top spot, which he had held for the first half of the year. In some ways, it could be a repeat of his 2004 performance, where he let Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt chip away at each other while he eased into the No. 2 spot. He had been noticeably more aggressive toward other candidates this time around, but in the last month has converted to more populist rhetoric, focusing on message rather than other candidates. His union backers will also give him a boost, and unlike the other candidates he can draw from a pool of Dems who already caucused for him four years ago.

Mitt Romney: The Republican candidate has enjoyed a lead in Iowa much of the year, but saw the top spot slip away in recent weeks to Mike Huckabee. But now that caucus season is drawing to a close, Huckabee has endured increased scrutiny and critical coverage, particularly from the national press corps. The negative ad that Huckabee showed reporters but withheld from broadcast is being roundly portrayed as a cynical move. And Romney's camp shows no signs of backing off their criticisms of the former Arkansas governor, saying they have every right to point out aspects of his resume he needs to defend. In the end, it comes down to organization and whether Romney's supporters will follow his post-straw poll directive to come out in the bitter cold of the caucuses like they came out in the sweltering heat of the straw poll.

Barack Obama: The Illinois senator's ability to draw crowds and interest has held steady throughout the year. He hit Iowa to a frenzy in February and the excitement surrounding his campaign hasn't ceased. In late December, on a day when meteorologists and weather experts advised viewers to stay indoors as near-blizzard conditions blanketed central Iowa, more than 600 people braved the nasty weather conditions to listen to the Democratic presidential candidate speak. Obama continues to draw some of the larger crowds among the presidential candidates -- Obama's campaign even used the crowd-size comparisons this week in a presentation to reporters. If those crowds translate into caucus support, Obama could see a caucus result that matches his poll performance. But his performance could rest on the whims of first-time caucus-goers, a notoriously unreliable group. He's also looking for help from some Republicans and independents. Dennis Kucinich's move to ask supporters to make Obama their second choice could help a little, but Kucinich's spotty Iowa organization this time around means his backing probably won't help Obama like it helped John Edwards in 2004.

John McCain: The Arizona senator and GOP candidate skipped the August straw poll and has focused his ad money and much of his time outside Iowa, but he still has received numerous newspaper endorsements (including that of the Des Moines Register) and is trending upwards in recent polls. McCain has also come under attack by fellow Republicans, an indication they again consider him a viable candidate. The events surrounding the assassination of former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto may have helped remind voters of the foreign policy advantage McCain holds over the current Republican frontrunners. If he nets a top-three finish despite his low-key Iowa approach, he could benefit from a slew of "McCain resurgence" stories as the campaigns quickly shift to New Hampshire -- a state where he has devoted resources. His decision to return to Iowa in the last two days of the race means he probably sees an opportunity for a bump.

MIXED

Hillary Clinton: The once "inevitable'' Democratic nominee is running in safe mode as the caucus nears. She's traveling the state with former President Bill Clinton and daughter Chelsea, but isn't making much news with that entourage, preferring to avoid unscripted encounters. Chelsea is avoiding the press as well, even declining to answer a question from a 9-year-old reporter. Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, a Clinton surrogate who campaigned in Iowa for her in December, was quoted in his home-state newspaper disparaging the caucus process and saying it "is not a fair way to register public opinion." Even though it wasn't Clinton doing the talking, it reminded some observers of the late hit Howard Dean took in '04 when a rival unearthed old footage of him knocking the caucus process years before he decided to run. Clinton has more than enough money to survive a lackluster caucus finish, backers say, and the recently lowered expectations could give her the opportunity for some "Comeback Kid" stories of her own if she does well.

Mike Huckabee: The former Arkansas guv's negative ad stunt on Monday earned him nothing but derision from the national press corps in town to cover the final days of the caucus, but reporters aren't the ones voting in precinct caucuses. His folksy demeanor and conservative Christian bona fides were what earned him a rise in the Iowa polls, and some Iowans appear ready to take him at his word on his last-minute conversion away from the evils of negative campaigning. Earlier in the holiday season, one campaign insider said Huckabee made a "brilliant" move for outdoors-loving Iowans when he hunted pheasants in Clarke County instead of setting up one more town hall meeting. However, even though Huckabee's jump in the polls didn't come until December, many insiders have wondered if the former Arkansas governor still peaked too early. In the weeks since his rise, he's been stung by attacks on his record as governor (especially taxes, pardons and immigration) and his lack of foreign policy polish. He was still on top in the latest Des Moines Register poll, but other polls have showed the race between him and Romney narrowing. Of all the top-tier candidates on either side, Huckabee probably is most in need of a strong finish in order to finally turn on the fundraising spigot.

Joe Biden and Bill Richardson: The unrest in Pakistan bodes well for these two second-tier candidates who have frequently referenced their foreign policy experience. But these two Democratic presidential candidates by most accounts would need to make significant strides in the final days to vault into the top three. It could happen, depending how much of weight caucus-goers decide to put on foreign policy, backers speculate. Of the two, insiders say Biden looks better positioned for a leap into the next tier on caucus night -- Richardson fell off at the end of the year after an initial boost from the humorous "job interview" ads he ran earlier in 2007 and never made it back to that polling peak, insiders say.

Fred Thompson: The former U.S. senator from Tennessee brought a renewed energy to his campaign this week while aboard a bus tour through Iowa. Thompson had been flat and low-energy prior to the tour, according to many GOP insiders. Thompson's tough stance on foreign policy and national security could play well with Iowa caucus-goers in the wake of the recent events in Pakistan. He's also emphasizing his consistent conservative credentials. Similar to McCain, exceeding low expectations could put him back in the race, at least for a bit.

Ron Paul: Like Obama, Paul is counting on newcomers to the caucus process to buoy him on Thursday night. If they come out the way his campaign is hoping, the Republican candidate could surprise many on Jan. 3. Paul is polling in single digits in many polls, but his supporters argue that polling methodology undersamples his supporters. If that is the case, then his slight upward in recent polls could foretell a good finish. Overall he's raised enough money and brought in enough volunteer support to at least play the spoiler role.

FALLING

Rudy Giuliani: The former New York mayor campaigned Friday and Saturday in Iowa, but then left without intending to return before the caucus. It was his only his second trip to the state this month; he's spending the rest of the week, including caucus night, in New Hampshire and Florida. Despite rhetoric to the contrary, it appears Giuliani never intended on more than a token Iowa effort -- his campaign this week distributed a memo defending his Florida-centric strategy. Giuliani skipped the Republican Party of Iowa's Ames Straw in August, and has only averaged a visit a month to the state, avoiding the bus tours and multi-city visits his GOP rivals have done.

Chris Dodd: The Connecticut senator has the endorsement of the fire fighters, which John Kerry cited as a key factor in his '04 win. But Dodd, despite taking up residence in the state, can't seem to break out of that low single-digit mark in the polls. Kerry's '04 win was somewhat of a surprise, but he didn't have anywhere near as far to go as Dodd does. Still, Dodd spoke to his largest crowd yet -- 150 people -- on Sunday in Mason City. Despite a strong record in Congress and his recent positioning as "defender of the Constitution," Dodd just never caught the same momentum Kerry saw in 2004, insiders say.

Dennis Kucinich: The Dem candidate says he wants to be taken seriously in his second quest for the White House but hasn't come close to logging the time in Iowa he'd need to garner serious support. The biggest Kucinich news in weeks came when he hitched himself to one of the top campaigns, announcing he'd ask his supporters to back Barack Obama in precincts where he's not viable. In 2004, his call to have supporters back Edwards probably helped Edwards to the surprise second-place finish. But Kucinich doesn't have nearly the support he did then -- 2004 Dems who backed him because of his strong anti-war stance had plenty of other candidates to pick from this time.

Alan Keyes: Like Kucinich, Keyes complained of a lack of attention but didn't put in much work to warrant it. The "highlight" of his Iowa campaign came when he monopolized much of the final state debate by interrupting the moderator with demands to speak and repeatedly exceeding time limits. He's not expected to have an impact on the final results.

Duncan Hunter: Conservatives like his foreign policy experience and his stance on immigration, but he's another candidate who hasn't invested serious time or resources in Iowa and isn't expected to make much of a showing on caucus night.

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

A new poll conducted December 28-30 by Strategic Vision shows narrow margins at the top of both the Democratic and Republican races.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney was at 30 percent, followed by Mike Huckabee at 28 percent. Among Democrats, Barack Obama led with 32 percent, followed by John Edwards at 29 percent and Hillary Clinton at 27 percent. The telephone polls of 600 likely caucus-goers from each party have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

See more in PollWatch

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

Hillary Clinton's campaign has unveiled her 2-minute closing argument to Iowans.

In the ad, which features Clinton talking directly to the camera, she calls for an end to the Iraq war, a new energy policy, rebuilding the middle class, and affordable quality health care for all.

She says she is the candidate "ready to start on day one."

The ad closes with one of the best lines from her Jefferson-Jackson Dinner address: "If you stand with me for one night, I will stand up for you every day as your president."

Clinton has purchased time for the ad on every 6 p.m. newscast in the state.

See the ad press release

Labels: Democrats

From a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby press release:

Democrat Barack Obama pulled even with Hillary Clinton in Iowa, with John Edwards close behind, in a tightening three-way race one day before the first presidential nominating contest, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Obama gained two points overnight and Clinton lost two points to deadlock at 28 percent among Democrats in Iowa, with Edwards in a statistical dead heat behind them at 26 percent. No other Democrat registered in double digits.

The Republican race in Iowa also tightened, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney sliced to two points, 28 percent to 26 percent.

Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson were tied for third at 12 percent.

-- See the poll press release

-- See a Reuters story on the poll

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

IowaPolitics.com viewers and subscribers expect Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee to win the Democratic and Republican caucuses, respectively, according to entries submitted in a caucus prediction contest.

The contest was circulated to IowaPolitics.com subscribers and viewers from Dec. 13 through Jan. 1 at 6 p.m. The results, while not scientific, provide some insight into how things may play out on caucus night.

The contest form asked entrants to predict the top three finishers in both the Republican and Democratic caucuses. Obama was picked by as the first-place finisher by 43 percent of entrants, followed by John Edwards, who was picked first by 37 percent of respondents. Just 19 percent thought Hillary Clinton would finish first. Predictions for Clinton's finish were almost evenly divided between second place (38 percent) and third place (39 percent).

The overwhelming majority of entrants picked some combination of Obama, Edwards and Clinton in the top three. The next-most popular candidate was Joe Biden, who got 3 percent of the second-place votes and 6 percent of the third-place votes.

On the Republican side, first and second place were more clear, but there was a wider variety of third-place predictions. Sixty-seven percent of respondents picked Mike Huckabee to finish first, and 61 percent picked Mitt Romney to finish second. John McCain got the most third-place votes, at 42 percent, followed by Ron Paul at 16 percent and Fred Thompson at 14 percent. There was no entry fee to participate, and the winner will receive a free IowaPolitics.com subscription. In all, 79 respondents correctly completed the contest form.

See the complete results below.

DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

FIRST PLACE
Barack Obama 43%
John Edwards 37%
Hillary Clinton 19%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

SECOND PLACE
Hillary Clinton 38%
John Edwards 34%
Barack Obama 24%
Joe Biden 3%
Chris Dodd 1%

THIRD PLACE
Hillary Clinton 39%
Barack Obama 28%
John Edwards 23%
Joe Biden 6%
Bill Richardson 4%

What percentage of the vote will the Democratic winner have?
Average response: 34.9 percent

REPUBLICAN CAUCUS

FIRST PLACE
Mike Huckabee 67%
Mitt Romney 20%
John McCain 5%
Ron Paul 5%
Alan Keyes 1%
Fred Thompson 1%

SECOND PLACE
Mitt Romney 61%
Mike Huckabee 23%
John McCain 9%
Rudy Giuliani 4%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Ron Paul 1%
Fred Thompson 1%

THIRD PLACE
John McCain 42%
Ron Paul 16%
Fred Thompson 14%
Rudy Giuliani 10%
Mitt Romney 9%
Mike Huckabee 8%
Tom Tancredo 1%

What percentage of the vote will the Republican winner have?
Average response: 34.9 percent

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

Democrat John Edwards continued his 36-hour "marathon for the middle class" Tuesday night by calling upon each individual to stand up to stop corporate greed.

"It is time for some truth-telling and the truth is that corporate greed is destroying the middle class in this country," Edwards said. "And you believe that we have a responsibility to stand up for the sacrifice and the hard work of all those generations who came before us."

He then talked about how the rich are getting richer because corporate profits are going through the roof.

Then he painted another pictures of America – the 47 million Americans having to beg for health care in the emergency room, 37 million people worried about feeding and clothing their children, 35 million Americans last year going hungry and the 200,000 former veterans sleeping under bridges and in crates.

Along with his wife, Elizabeth, he thanked the 100 campaign volunteers, the United Steelworkers members of Local 164 of Des Moines and other USW members from across the nation calling registered Iowan voters to persuade them to caucus for Edwards.

"This is not about me and it is not about Elizabeth," he said. "It is about the promise of this country and it is about standing up for the middle-class working family because of what you are doing. Every one of you on Thursday night here in Iowa, the Iowa caucus-goers are going to stand up, rise up and say, 'Enough is enough. Tonight starts an entire world of change that sweeps across this country that can not be stopped.'"

Doug Watts, a USW member from Louisiana, came up to Iowa last Thursday to be informed and educated on the Edwards' campaign, so that he can encourage all the other USW members to vote for him in the primary.

"I believe that he is the best individual of the candidates that truly represent the middle class," he said. "He also realizes that big portion of our jobs are going overseas and that someone needs to stop corporate interests from benefiting from cheap labor because we are not."

John Campbell, another member of the USW of Des Moines, said that Edwards is a person of character, and has the capability and the desire to become the next president of the United States who won't forget those that helped him get there.

"He is the guy who is going to take back the country for the working family … as well as enforce the laws that recognize the union's right to organize."

Labels: Democrats

Joe Biden (D)
-- 9 a.m.: Caucus countdown event, Burlington Arts Guild, 629
Washington St., Burlington
-- 12 p.m.: Caucus countdown event, Douma Elementary School, Side
Entrance, 307 W. Mary St., Ottumwa
-- 2:30 p.m.: Caucus countdown event, The Peppertree, 2274 Highway 63,
Oskaloosa
-- 5 p.m.: Caucus countdown event, North Ridge Parking Pavilion, 2250
Holiday Road, Coralville
-- 7:30 p.m.: Caucus countdown event, The Roundhouse, 1350 A St. SW,
Cedar Rapids

Hillary Clinton (D)
-- 9:15 a.m.: Warren Co. "Picks a President" event, First United
Methodist Church, 307 W. Ashland, Indianola
-- 12:45 p.m.: Linn Co. "Picks a President" event, Kirkwood Community
College, Gym, 6301 Kirkwood Blvd. SW, Cedar Rapids
-- 3:30 p.m.: Scott Co. "Picks a President" event, Mississippi Valley
Fairgrounds, 4-H Room, 2815 W. Locust St., Davenport
-- 6:30 p.m.: Wapello Co. "Picks a President" event, Bridge View
Center, 102 Church St., Ottumwa
-- 9:30 p.m.: Polk Co. "Picks a President" event, Iowa Historical
Society, 600 E. Locust, Des Moines


Chris Dodd (D)
-- 8 a.m.: Meet & Greet retail stop, The Country House, 68168
U.S. Highway 30, Colo
-- 9 a.m.: "Caucus for Results" celebration, Lucallan's Italian Grill,
400 Main St., Ames
-- 1:30 p.m.: "Caucus for Results" celebration, Signature's Grill, 107
N. Buxton St., Indianola
-- 4:30 p.m.: "Caucus for Results" celebration, VFW Post 775, 702 W.
Main St., Ottumwa
-- 6:15 p.m.: Meet & Greet retail stop, Pizza Ranch, 1103 W.
Burlington Ave., Fairfield
-- 8 p.m.: "Caucus for Results" celebration, The Port of Burlington,
400 N. Front St., Burlington

John Edwards (D)
-- 12 a.m.: "Midnight GOTC Party" with Core Supporters and Volunteers
in Cass Co., Home of Denise O'Brien, 59624 Chicago Road, Atlantic
-- 2:15 a.m.: Visits Core Supporters and Volunteers in Union Co., Home
of Union Co. Co-Coordinator and Precinct Capt. Jan Knock, 906 W.
Montgomery St., Creston
-- 5:15 a.m.: Pancake Breakfast for Supporters and Volunteers, Home of
Deb Kury, 502 S. 12th St., Centerville
-- 7 a.m.: Visits John Edwards for President Campaign Office, 609
Church St., Ottumwa
-- 8:30 a.m.: Discussion with undecided caucus goers, 2nd Street Café,
107 E. 2nd St., Fairfield
-- 9:45 a.m.: Drop-by a Canvass Kickoff, Home of Bob Petrezelka, 609 E.
Monroe St., Mount Pleasant
-- 11:30 a.m.: Discussion with undecided caucus goers, Ivy Bake Shoppe,
622 7th St., Fort Madison
-- 1 p.m.: Visits John Edwards for President Campaign Office, 2700
Mount Pleasant St., Burlington
-- 3:30 p.m.: Meeting with caucus goers, Capanna Coffee Company, 136 S.
Dubuque St., Iowa City
-- 5 p.m.: "Countdown to Caucus" event, Marriott Cedar Rapids, Hickory
Room, 1200 Collins Road NE, Cedar Rapids
-- 7:35 p.m.: Discussion with undecided caucus goers, Saints Rest
Coffee House, 919 Broad St., Grinnell
-- 9 p.m.: "This is Our Country" Rally with John Mellencamp, Val Air
Ballroom, 301 Ashworth Road, West Des Moines


Barack Obama (D)
-- 9 a.m.: Canvass Kick-Off, Friendly House, Gymnasium, 1221 Myrtle
St., Davenport
-- 1:30 p.m.: ‘Stand For Change’ rally, Coralville Marriott Hotel and
Conference Center, Coral Ballroom, 300 E. 9th St., Coralville
-- 4 p.m.: ‘Stand For Change’ rally, The Coliseum, Veterans Memorial
Bldg., 50 2nd Ave. Bridge, Cedar Rapids
-- 7 p.m.: ‘Stand For Change’ rally, East High School, 214 High St.,
Waterloo
-- 10 p.m.: ‘Stand For Change’ rally, Hoover High School Gymnasium,
4800 Aurora Ave., Des Moines

Labels: Democrats

Some Iowa insiders believe the recent event in Pakistan can give Sen. Joe Biden a boost on caucus night, but add that it may not be enough to give the Democratic presidential candidate a top three finish on Jan. 3.

Biden discussed Pakistan and the uncertainty going on in the region in an internet address Tuesday morning.

"The events of the past week have made it clear that there are serious threats to our security all across this globe," Biden said. "I believe I have demonstrated that I'm ready to deal with these threats from Day One. And I'm ready to win. We know what the Republicans will throw at us in this election. They'll say we're weak, and soft on national security. They'll appeal to peoples' fears, not their hopes. If I am your nominee that strategy will certainly backfire."

See the Biden campaign press release

Biden, who is in single digits in the polls, isn't giving up on his quest for the White House. He pointed out he is also ready to square off against Republicans Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee when it comes to moral issues.

"I can hardly wait to debate Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee when they accuse the Democrats of having no moral authority to lead," Biden said. "Where is the morality in providing an addition $85 billion tax cut for those who make an average of $1.4 million a year? And, not providing health insurance for America's children -- or letting American's who fall prey to a catastrophic illness lose all they have? What is moral about maintaining a prison at Guantanamo Bay and allowing torture as U.S. policy? So when caucus-goers visualize the election when they ask themselves, 'who do you want in the ring to go toe to toe with the Republicans?' -- I hope you will conclude it is me."

Labels: Democrats

Sen. Barack Obama and Congressman Dennis Kucinich want to be president, and both have taken different campaign strategies. Obama has spent much of 2007 campaigning in Iowa -- amassing 38 visits since last January. Kucinich has logged only eight visits to Iowa, and two of those were for debates.

Kucinich and Obama both opposed the war in Iraq from day one, and on day one of 2008, Kucinich asked his supporters to make Obama their second choice on caucus night if Kucinich does not have a viable group.

"I hope Iowans will caucus for me as their first choice this Thursday, because of my singular positions on the war, on health care, and trade" Kucinich said in New Year's Day release. "This is an opportunity for people to stand up for themselves. But in those caucus locations where my support doesn't reach the necessary threshold, I strongly encourage all of my supporters to make Barack Obama their second choice. Sen. Obama and I have one thing in common: Change."

See the statements from Obama and Kucinich

Obama thanked Kucinich for the gesture, and urged all Iowans to caucus. At a campaign stop Tuesday in Des Moines, he praised Iowans for the responsibility they possess and take very seriously.

See Obama video from his rally at Roosevelt High School in Des Moines: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjnaTm9jXuU

In 2004, Kucinich asked his supporters to back John Edwards as a second choice, helping contribute to Edwards' second-place finish. But Kucinich was a more active campaigner in 2004, so this move may have less of an impact now than it did then.

Labels: Democrats

The latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows Sen. Barack Obama holding a slight edge over his Democratic rivals as the caucus nears. With 72 hours remaining until the first presidential nominating contest, Obama has a seven-point lead, 32-25, over Sen. Hillary Clinton. However, Obama is not resting on his laurels.

"The polls look good, but understand this, the polls are not enough," he said. "The only thing that counts is if you show up to caucus."

The only poll Obama said he is paying attention to is the final tally on caucus night. Obama held a caucus rally Tuesday morning in front of nearly a thousand people. The event had a pep rally feel, and Obama delivered on his end of the deal firing up the crowd on the cold, chilly January day in Iowa.

With temperatures in the single digits outside and windchill making it feel like 10 below, Obama said he can help unite a country and Washington, D.C.

"We don't have a shortage of anger in Washington," he said. "We don't need more heat. We need more light."

Obama talked about his 10 months campaigning in Iowa and listening to the people's needs and desires. He addressed polls that show he is the lone Democrat who would beat all GOP Oval Office hopefuls.

"I beat all of them because of you," Obama said.

Listen to audio from the campaign event

Along the campaign trail, Obama said he has reached independents and Republicans as well as Democrats. His campaign is calling independent voters in the days leading up to the caucus. And, on Tuesday, Republican Brett Johnson of Ankeny braved the bitter cold temperature to listen to Obama.

Johnson is an undecided caucus-goer, but he faces a different choice than many of his fellow Iowans. Johnson is deciding whether he will attend his regular caucus for Mike Huckabee, or attend his first Democratic caucus for Obama.

"I like his message," Johnson said of Obama. "I don't agree with everything he has to say. But of all the candidates, I have seen more passion in him than anybody. I like his message of change."

Labels: Democrats

In concert with a full-page ad his campaign purchased in today's Des Moines Register, John Edwards' campaign is planning to air a 60-second ad featuring former Maytag employee Doug Bishop, who argues that Edwards is ready to fight for "saving the middle class and American jobs in the face of corporate greed.

See the Edwards campaign release and ad script

See more ads in AdWatch

Labels: Democrats

The campaigns of Hillary Clinton and John Edwards are critiquin the latest Iowa Poll after it showed Barack Obama leading both candidates by at least 7 percentage points.

Edwards' campaign said the poll is "at odds with history" and "at odds with other polls."

Clinton strategist Mark Penn said the poll used "an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses."

His conclusion: "So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference."

UPDATE: Obama held a caucus rally Tuesday morning in front of nearly a thousand people, saying he's happy with his poll showings but still focusing on Thursday's final poll.

"The polls look good, but understand this, the polls are not enough," he said. "The only thing that counts is if you show up to caucus."

Labels: Democrats

The newest Iowa Poll from the Des Moines Register has Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee leading their respective parties.

The phone survey of 800 likely Democratic caucus-goers, conducted Dec. 27-30, has Obama at 32 percent, Clinton at 25 percent and Edwards at 24 percent. Bill Richardson was next at 6 percent. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

See the Democratic results

The phone survey of likely GOP caucus-goers has Huckabee leading Mitt Romney 32 percent to 26 percent. John McCain placed third at 13 percent, with Ron Paul and Fred Thompson each at 9 percent. The GOP survey was also conducted Dec. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

See the Republican results

Labels: Democrats, Republicans

As 2007 ended in Des Moines Monday, supporters of Bill Richardson gathered at the Quality Inn and Suites Event Center downtown to count down to the new year.

People began filtering into the conference room four hours before the governor was scheduled to speak at midnight. One of the early arrivals was Richardson's chief of staff in New Mexico, James Jimenez, who traveled to Iowa to help spread Richardson's message.

"I think what sets the governor apart from other candidates is his ability to sell ideas to individual voters on a one-on-one basis," said Jimenez. "That is why he is such a great communicator; he is someone who really knows how to talk to people."

Many of the people who attended the bash were volunteers from his home state of New Mexico. Daniel Maki, a student volunteer from Richardson's home state, said the he was drawn into the campaign and traveled to Iowa to help show the rest of the country what Richardson did in New Mexico.

"I have seen what he has done first-hand for issues such as improving teacher's salaries," said Maki. "Iowa is a tough state to win, but I really think the momentum will lean towards our favor once people look closely at his record."

Also traveling from out of state was Rachel Binah, chair of the environmental caucus of the Democratic Party of California. A member of the Democratic National Committee and acting super-delegate for the 2008 Democratic National Convention, Binah made the trip to Iowa to help show people the work that Richardson has done for environmental issues.

"Governor Richardson understands that protecting the environment is not just a environmental issue, but a national security issue," said Binah. She said focusing on more pro-environmental fuel movements will eliminate America's dependence on foreign oil.

Binah also feels very confident with the caucuses just two days away, saying that Richardson could have a surprise showing if enough people get out to caucus.

"If all of the people who say that they love him but don't typically show up to the caucus actually do show up, he is going to do great on Thursday," said Binah.

Mary Gail Gwaltney, a committed supporter of Richardson's New Mexico political campaigns for over 28 years and former delegate to the 1992 and 2000 Democratic National Conventions, said she has thrown her support behind him consistently because of his record dealing with national security and border issues.

"Foreign countries are going to be willing to deal with him more than any of the other candidates because he really talks straight while listening to the opposite," said Gwaltney. "They know that he is willing to work problems through by various different means, which is what this country needs."

Labels: Democrats