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Here is a special pre-caucus night edition of the IowaPolitics.com Political Stock Report as of early Wednesday morning.
See other recent columnsPOLITICAL STOCK REPORT(Through the morning of Wed. Jan. 2, 2008)RISINGJohn Edwards: After falling out of the top spot in Iowa polls earlier in 2007, Edwards' performance trended upwards throughout December, and there's a sense among insiders that his climb in the polls will be reflected on the ground. He's essentially been building an Iowa organization for more than four years, and his backers are confident that will be the difference on caucus night. With Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton hammering on each other along the campaign trail, conventional wisdom from caucus-goers and Iowa insiders says the confrontational approach may hurt them and could vault Edwards into the top spot, which he had held for the first half of the year. In some ways, it could be a repeat of his 2004 performance, where he let Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt chip away at each other while he eased into the No. 2 spot. He had been noticeably more aggressive toward other candidates this time around, but in the last month has converted to more populist rhetoric, focusing on message rather than other candidates. His union backers will also give him a boost, and unlike the other candidates he can draw from a pool of Dems who already caucused for him four years ago.
Mitt Romney: The Republican candidate has enjoyed a lead in Iowa much of the year, but saw the top spot slip away in recent weeks to Mike Huckabee. But now that caucus season is drawing to a close, Huckabee has endured increased scrutiny and critical coverage, particularly from the national press corps. The negative ad that Huckabee showed reporters but withheld from broadcast is being roundly portrayed as a cynical move. And Romney's camp shows no signs of backing off their criticisms of the former Arkansas governor, saying they have every right to point out aspects of his resume he needs to defend. In the end, it comes down to organization and whether Romney's supporters will follow his post-straw poll directive to come out in the bitter cold of the caucuses like they came out in the sweltering heat of the straw poll.
Barack Obama: The Illinois senator's ability to draw crowds and interest has held steady throughout the year. He hit Iowa to a frenzy in February and the excitement surrounding his campaign hasn't ceased. In late December, on a day when meteorologists and weather experts advised viewers to stay indoors as near-blizzard conditions blanketed central Iowa, more than 600 people braved the nasty weather conditions to listen to the Democratic presidential candidate speak. Obama continues to draw some of the larger crowds among the presidential candidates -- Obama's campaign even used the crowd-size comparisons this week in a presentation to reporters. If those crowds translate into caucus support, Obama could see a caucus result that matches his poll performance. But his performance could rest on the whims of first-time caucus-goers, a notoriously unreliable group. He's also looking for help from some Republicans and independents. Dennis Kucinich's move to ask supporters to make Obama their second choice could help a little, but Kucinich's spotty Iowa organization this time around means his backing probably won't help Obama like it helped John Edwards in 2004.
John McCain: The Arizona senator and GOP candidate skipped the August straw poll and has focused his ad money and much of his time outside Iowa, but he still has received numerous newspaper endorsements (including that of the Des Moines Register) and is trending upwards in recent polls. McCain has also come under attack by fellow Republicans, an indication they again consider him a viable candidate. The events surrounding the assassination of former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto may have helped remind voters of the foreign policy advantage McCain holds over the current Republican frontrunners. If he nets a top-three finish despite his low-key Iowa approach, he could benefit from a slew of "McCain resurgence" stories as the campaigns quickly shift to New Hampshire -- a state where he has devoted resources. His decision to return to Iowa in the last two days of the race means he probably sees an opportunity for a bump.
MIXEDHillary Clinton: The once "inevitable'' Democratic nominee is running in safe mode as the caucus nears. She's traveling the state with former President Bill Clinton and daughter Chelsea, but isn't making much news with that entourage, preferring to avoid unscripted encounters. Chelsea is avoiding the press as well, even declining to answer a question from a 9-year-old reporter. Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, a Clinton surrogate who campaigned in Iowa for her in December, was quoted in his home-state newspaper disparaging the caucus process and saying it "is not a fair way to register public opinion." Even though it wasn't Clinton doing the talking, it reminded some observers of the late hit Howard Dean took in '04 when a rival unearthed old footage of him knocking the caucus process years before he decided to run. Clinton has more than enough money to survive a lackluster caucus finish, backers say, and the recently lowered expectations could give her the opportunity for some "Comeback Kid" stories of her own if she does well.
Mike Huckabee: The former Arkansas guv's negative ad stunt on Monday earned him nothing but derision from the national press corps in town to cover the final days of the caucus, but reporters aren't the ones voting in precinct caucuses. His folksy demeanor and conservative Christian bona fides were what earned him a rise in the Iowa polls, and some Iowans appear ready to take him at his word on his last-minute conversion away from the evils of negative campaigning. Earlier in the holiday season, one campaign insider said Huckabee made a "brilliant" move for outdoors-loving Iowans when he hunted pheasants in Clarke County instead of setting up one more town hall meeting. However, even though Huckabee's jump in the polls didn't come until December, many insiders have wondered if the former Arkansas governor still peaked too early. In the weeks since his rise, he's been stung by attacks on his record as governor (especially taxes, pardons and immigration) and his lack of foreign policy polish. He was still on top in the latest Des Moines Register poll, but other polls have showed the race between him and Romney narrowing. Of all the top-tier candidates on either side, Huckabee probably is most in need of a strong finish in order to finally turn on the fundraising spigot.
Joe Biden and Bill Richardson: The unrest in Pakistan bodes well for these two second-tier candidates who have frequently referenced their foreign policy experience. But these two Democratic presidential candidates by most accounts would need to make significant strides in the final days to vault into the top three. It could happen, depending how much of weight caucus-goers decide to put on foreign policy, backers speculate. Of the two, insiders say Biden looks better positioned for a leap into the next tier on caucus night -- Richardson fell off at the end of the year after an initial boost from the humorous "job interview" ads he ran earlier in 2007 and never made it back to that polling peak, insiders say.
Fred Thompson: The former U.S. senator from Tennessee brought a renewed energy to his campaign this week while aboard a bus tour through Iowa. Thompson had been flat and low-energy prior to the tour, according to many GOP insiders. Thompson's tough stance on foreign policy and national security could play well with Iowa caucus-goers in the wake of the recent events in Pakistan. He's also emphasizing his consistent conservative credentials. Similar to McCain, exceeding low expectations could put him back in the race, at least for a bit.
Ron Paul: Like Obama, Paul is counting on newcomers to the caucus process to buoy him on Thursday night. If they come out the way his campaign is hoping, the Republican candidate could surprise many on Jan. 3. Paul is polling in single digits in many polls, but his supporters argue that polling methodology undersamples his supporters. If that is the case, then his slight upward in recent polls could foretell a good finish. Overall he's raised enough money and brought in enough volunteer support to at least play the spoiler role.
FALLINGRudy Giuliani: The former New York mayor campaigned Friday and Saturday in Iowa, but then left without intending to return before the caucus. It was his only his second trip to the state this month; he's spending the rest of the week, including caucus night, in New Hampshire and Florida. Despite rhetoric to the contrary, it appears Giuliani never intended on more than a token Iowa effort -- his campaign this week distributed a memo defending his Florida-centric strategy. Giuliani skipped the Republican Party of Iowa's Ames Straw in August, and has only averaged a visit a month to the state, avoiding the bus tours and multi-city visits his GOP rivals have done.
Chris Dodd: The Connecticut senator has the endorsement of the fire fighters, which John Kerry cited as a key factor in his '04 win. But Dodd, despite taking up residence in the state, can't seem to break out of that low single-digit mark in the polls. Kerry's '04 win was somewhat of a surprise, but he didn't have anywhere near as far to go as Dodd does. Still, Dodd spoke to his largest crowd yet -- 150 people -- on Sunday in Mason City. Despite a strong record in Congress and his recent positioning as "defender of the Constitution," Dodd just never caught the same momentum Kerry saw in 2004, insiders say.
Dennis Kucinich: The Dem candidate says he wants to be taken seriously in his second quest for the White House but hasn't come close to logging the time in Iowa he'd need to garner serious support. The biggest Kucinich news in weeks came when he hitched himself to one of the top campaigns, announcing he'd ask his supporters to back Barack Obama in precincts where he's not viable. In 2004, his call to have supporters back Edwards probably helped Edwards to the surprise second-place finish. But Kucinich doesn't have nearly the support he did then -- 2004 Dems who backed him because of his strong anti-war stance had plenty of other candidates to pick from this time.
Alan Keyes: Like Kucinich, Keyes complained of a lack of attention but didn't put in much work to warrant it. The "highlight" of his Iowa campaign came when he monopolized much of the final state debate by interrupting the moderator with demands to speak and repeatedly exceeding time limits. He's not expected to have an impact on the final results.
Duncan Hunter: Conservatives like his foreign policy experience and his stance on immigration, but he's another candidate who hasn't invested serious time or resources in Iowa and isn't expected to make much of a showing on caucus night.
Labels: Democrats, Republicans
