A handful of Democratic operatives not involved with the 3rd District primary agree that challenger Ed Fallon faces long odds of defeating long-time incumbent U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell. However, one well-respected Democrat did paint a picture where Fallon could cause Boswell headaches.

A low turnout on primary night would be very advantageous to Fallon, the operative said.

"He has a hardcore base of support who will support him for whatever office he seeks," the operative noted. "Fallon's old legislative district and neighboring districts and Polk County voters will support him. Ed has to hope no one in the rural districts turns out."

The bottom line when the final vote is tallied is likely to be something like a 55 percent to 45 percent Boswell advantage, the operative said.

Another Democratic operative from Des Moines agrees with the previous assessment of 55-45 margin, and said the rural vote will be the key.

"Boswell has a long relationship with the rural districts," the Des Moines Democrat said.

One former Democratic presidential candidate campaign worker said the Boswell camp never took Fallon seriously.

"The polls have always shown him down, he's never raised a ton of money, and his grassroots organizing -- while commendable -- has never taken off into a full-blown movement," the caucus staffer said. "For him to win, I think Fallon would have had to do something really big, really sensational.  It's never happened.  It has been too easy for Boswell to simply ignore Fallon."

A Democratic source with past campaign experience, said on primary night the final tally will show Boswell with a 52-48 margin. The source added Fallon could put up a fight because of his strong showing in the 2006 gubernatorial primary. Fallon won district in his Democratic gubernatorial primary.

A Democratic Party activist said Boswell will likely win, but it is hard to ignore what Fallon brings to the table.

"I think Fallon is very appealing to the wing of the party that identifies itself as progressive," the activist said. "There are plenty of Democrats who are happy to vote for a Fallon even with his little schisms from the party in past.  The same ones who are not bothered by him breaking ranks with the party are bothered by Boswell's conservative voting record and want to see a more liberal representative.

"Boswell has trouble attracting the majority of voters that simply identify as 'Democrats' and not particularly liberal. They are the ones that feel somehow uncomfortable with a candidate that isn't more entrenched in the party and safely moderate.  You still see too many people rolling their eyes at Fallon riding a bike around town for him to beat an incumbent Democrat."

Labels: 2008_primary