Traders on the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) predicted from the start that the Democratic nominee for president would be the likely winner of the 2008 popular vote.

Their foresight proved accurate Tuesday, as Barack Obama was elected president and the Democratic contract on the IEM's Winner Take All market paid $1.

Since the Winner Take All market opened in June 2006, the Democratic contract never once dropped in value below the Republican contract.

As of midnight Central Time Monday, 439,431 contracts had been traded on the Winner Take All market since the market opened, for a total value of $204,536. The normalized prices at midnight the day before the election, which are used to determine the market's predictive capability, indicated a 90 percent probability that the Democratic candidate would win the popular vote.

Read more about the IEM and this election

Labels: 2008_election