IowaPolitics.com: Election Blog

Secretary of State Michael Mauro is predicting Tuesday's primary turnout to be between 12 and 15 percent. The polls open at 7 a.m. Mauro announced there are more than two million registered voters in Iowa: 704,060 Democrats, 613,499 GOP and 761,000 no party voters. To vote Tuesday, independent voters must declare a party.

Labels: 2008_primary

The general feeling at Friday's Republican Party of Iowa Lincoln Day Dinner is that Tuesday's GOP Senate primary race is up for grabs.

More than 500 Iowa Republicans poured into the downtown Embassy Suites to talk politics with friends, lawmakers and prospective candidates. Among the discussions at the reception, prior to the event, was the unpredictable Senate primary featuring George Eichhorn, Christopher Reed and Steve Rathje.

"This campaign is not about me, the incumbent or primary," Rathje said in his address. "This campaign is about our conscience, our morals, our beliefs and about a clear vision for the future of America."

Rathje stressed he is committed to education, but at a state level, "where it belongs." Rathje has logged 200,000 miles on his vehicle in visiting all 99 counties in the past three years.

"This campaign has been one of dedication and commitment," Rathje said.

Eichhorn used Harkin's own words in his address at the dinner. Harkin has said change is needed in Washington, and Eichhorn said Friday he couldn't agree more and that change starts with defeating the Democrat in November.

"I am proud to have a common sense, conservative voting record," Eichhorn said. "I fought day in and day out for Republican values for six years" in the Iowa House.

Eichhorn talked about receiving more than 40 endorsements of key GOP lawmakers and Republican officials.

"They believe I am the best candidate and can defeat Tom. Harkin in November," he said.

Despite the energizing speeches, the outcome is a mystery as the primary nears.

"It is anybody's race," said a Cedar Rapids Republican. "None of them seem to have a distinct advantage."

Many project a low turnout, and a western Iowa voters predicts that will benefit Rathje.

"He has been the race longer, and is from the Cedar Rapids area where turnout will be heavier," due to the 2nd Congressional District primary, the western Iowa voter said.

A Des Moines Republican acknowledges Eichhorn may have the best name ID, but noted Reed is strong on the issues and could aid in sending the race to convention.

Labels: 2008_primary

A handful of Democratic operatives not involved with the 3rd District primary agree that challenger Ed Fallon faces long odds of defeating long-time incumbent U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell. However, one well-respected Democrat did paint a picture where Fallon could cause Boswell headaches.

A low turnout on primary night would be very advantageous to Fallon, the operative said.

"He has a hardcore base of support who will support him for whatever office he seeks," the operative noted. "Fallon's old legislative district and neighboring districts and Polk County voters will support him. Ed has to hope no one in the rural districts turns out."

The bottom line when the final vote is tallied is likely to be something like a 55 percent to 45 percent Boswell advantage, the operative said.

Another Democratic operative from Des Moines agrees with the previous assessment of 55-45 margin, and said the rural vote will be the key.

"Boswell has a long relationship with the rural districts," the Des Moines Democrat said.

One former Democratic presidential candidate campaign worker said the Boswell camp never took Fallon seriously.

"The polls have always shown him down, he's never raised a ton of money, and his grassroots organizing -- while commendable -- has never taken off into a full-blown movement," the caucus staffer said. "For him to win, I think Fallon would have had to do something really big, really sensational.  It's never happened.  It has been too easy for Boswell to simply ignore Fallon."

A Democratic source with past campaign experience, said on primary night the final tally will show Boswell with a 52-48 margin. The source added Fallon could put up a fight because of his strong showing in the 2006 gubernatorial primary. Fallon won district in his Democratic gubernatorial primary.

A Democratic Party activist said Boswell will likely win, but it is hard to ignore what Fallon brings to the table.

"I think Fallon is very appealing to the wing of the party that identifies itself as progressive," the activist said. "There are plenty of Democrats who are happy to vote for a Fallon even with his little schisms from the party in past.  The same ones who are not bothered by him breaking ranks with the party are bothered by Boswell's conservative voting record and want to see a more liberal representative.

"Boswell has trouble attracting the majority of voters that simply identify as 'Democrats' and not particularly liberal. They are the ones that feel somehow uncomfortable with a candidate that isn't more entrenched in the party and safely moderate.  You still see too many people rolling their eyes at Fallon riding a bike around town for him to beat an incumbent Democrat."

Labels: 2008_primary

With the June 3 primary just days away, Republicans are eying a GOP contest in the Democratic-leaning 2nd Congressional District as they consider adding freshman U.S. Rep. Dave Loebsack, D-Mt. Vernon, to their list of targeted House seats.

U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, D-Waterloo, serving his first term in the 1st District, holds a solid Democratic district and will probably get a pass from the Republican attack machine this election cycle. U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell, D-Des Moines, who national Dems expect to survive a primary challenge from 2006 gubernatorial candidate Ed Fallon also will most likely cruise to victory in the general election.

But Republicans believe that at least two of the candidates running in the 2nd District GOP primary have potential: Ophthalmologist and former state Medical Society President Mariannette Miller-Meeks and businessman Peter Teahen. Chaplain Lee Harder is also running in the GOP primary, but is not expected to win.

Depending on available funds and Loebsack's political strength (or lack thereof) come the fall, national Republicans could choose to attack the Democratic incumbent while simultaneously adding some muscle behind the GOP nominee.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, consistent with its policy under its current Chairman, U.S. Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, is not taking sides in Tuesday's primary, although NRCC officials worked early in the election cycle to recruit Miller-Meeks into the race.

According to one Republican strategist monitoring the 2nd District GOP primary, Teahen has put together the superior campaign organization between the two, but Miller-Meeks is a better fit for the district. In other words: Some Republicans believe Miller-Meeks has a better chance of beating Loebsack than does Teahen.

Labels: 2008_primary

Ottumwa opthalmologist Dr. Mariannette Miller-Meeks has overcome a double-digit deficit in her 2nd District GOP congressional primary bid. However, at Friday night's Lincoln Day Dinner, she still referred to herself as the underdog.

Miller-Meeks outraised her chief rival, Cedar Rapids businessman Peter Teahen, in the latest reporting period, which she called a necessary part of clawing back into the race.

"You work harder when you are the underdog," she said.

She received an enthusiastic response as she dialed up the crowd toward the end of her speech. She stressed the need for Republicans to be more forward-thinking in Congress and in Iowa, and referenced that need as she emphasized her desire to be the first woman elected to Congress from Iowa.

"I am not a career politician, and that is one reason I will win this seat in the primary," Miller-Meeks said. "I am an opthalmologist, and it is my job to help people see better. It does not take glasses to see Congress is out of touch with real Americans."

She referenced recent hearings in Congress on steroid use in baseball as an example of not focusing on the issues.

Teahen called upon Congress and the Republican elected to beat incumbent Congressman Dave Loebsack to lead Washington, D.C., in a new direction. He said Loebsack has represented House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's interests more than those of his constituents in the 2nd District.

"Congress has failed to lead us for too long," Teahen said. "The government hasn't failed us, it is the elected officials. This year we have seen record turnout in caucuses and primaries, that shows we are tired of how we have been treated. We deserve better; our families deserve better."

The funeral home director and Red Cross spokesman said he wants to be an elected official who leads, and not leave the tough decisions in the hands of judges. He also stressed the need for the country to feel safe and protect itself from terrorists.

"I want to turn this country around and make people feel safe again," Teahen said.

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Labels: 2008_primary