IowaPolitics.com coverage of Iowa elections.


IowaPolitics.com election scorecard

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

1:06 AM: Reed pulls off narrow win in GOP Senate primary

The fact Sen. Tom Harkin has defeated more sitting members of Congress than anyone in office doesn't intimidate Christopher Reed. Unofficial tallies showed Reed, a Republican, capturing just more than 35 percent of the vote, allowing him to be declared the winner of Tuesday's U.S. Senate primary and avoid a convention battle.

Reed credited some of Tuesday night's victory to a moving speech at Friday's Lincoln Day Dinner (See IowaPolitics.com coverage). He was well received, and he noted he was just talking to the crowd and that he didn't have remarks rehearsed.

"After Friday night, I felt pretty good," he said.

On Tuesday Reed edged former state Rep. George Eichhorn by more than 400 votes to capture the GOP primary title, and now he is gearing up for the daunting task of unseating Harkin, a key Democratic player in Washington. However, Reed says this is the year that Harkin can be beat.

"I truly believe people are tired of politics as usual," said Reed, a Cedar Rapids area business owner. "I believe the fact I don't have a political record won't end up as campaign fodder."

Reed praised his fellow GOP opponents, and said he is now eying the challenge that lies ahead in November. He noted to dethrone Harkin will require a strong grassroots effort, getting the Republican base excited and reaching out to independent voters. He said he also plans to ask Democrats to join his efforts.

"There are Democrats who also believe Washington is broken," said Reed, adding sending Harkin for a fifth term would result in more of the same results. "Iowans want to be inspired and want to believe people will represent them. I am going to offer Iowans a new face."

-- By Chris Dorsey

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1:01 AM: Statehouse incumbents fend off challengers

Statehouse incumbents facing primary challenges all survived Tuesday night, just as many observers predicted.

The closest margin of victory for any incumbent was state Rep. Wayne Ford, D-Des Moines, who secured 54 percent of the vote in the three-person race against Tyler Reedy and Charles Hoffman, who garnered 39 and 7 percent, respectively, in the District 65 race.

Another Democrat, Rep. Geri Huser of Altoona, held off Matt Ballard's challenge in the District 42 House primary. Huser captured 60 percent of the vote compared with Ballard's 40 percent.

Rep. Deborah Berry recorded the largest margin of victory for an incumbent being challenged. Berry, D-Waterloo, netted 73 percent of the vote, while Don Shatzer earned 27 percent of the vote in the District 22 primary.

Rep. Jim Van Engelenhoven of Pella was the lone Republican House incumbent being challenged. He beat Marc Held by a 72 percent to 28 percent margin.

See the IowaPolitics.com Primary Scorecard for complete legislative and congressional results

-- By Chris Dorsey

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12:44 AM: Miller-Meeks looking to become Iowa's first female in Congress

Mariannette Miller-Meeks wants to the be the first woman elected to Congress from Iowa.

She took a step Tuesday toward making that goal a reality, defeating Cedar Rapids funeral home director Peter Teahen by more than 100 votes.

"I am thrilled, humbled and overwhelmed," Miller-Meeks said. "We knew it would be close. We had to work hard in Linn County and throughout the district."

Teahen held a double-digit lead over Miller-Meeks nearly two months ago, and the Ottumwa opthalmologist began slowly erasing the deficit. In the days leading up to the primary, the campaign saw the momentum moving in Miller-Meeks' favor.

"From our perspective we saw the momentum shifting (in recent weeks)," said Miller-Meeks, adding she felt she solidified her campaign with her speech at Friday's Lincoln Dinner in Des Moines. "I solidified to the establishment I was a credible candidate."

Miller-Meeks said she is pleased with how the campaign came together in the closing days of the primary. She noted the campaign didn't distribute negative mail and was not responsible for any of the attacks on Teahen that came from a source in the United Kingdom.

Now, she has her sights set on incumbent Congressman Dave Loebsack.

"I think Loebsack is vulnerable," she said. "(Tonight) is absolutely the first step. You have to believe you have the capacity to (win in the general election). I tell people I have my finger on the pulse of the 2nd District and that message resonates well."

-- By Chris Dorsey

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12:16 AM: GOP Senate primary too close to call

With 18 precincts yet to report results for the GOP Senate primary the race was so close that it was shaping up to be determined at a later date -- pending the canvass of the vote.

Tallies showed Christopher Reed with 34.9 percent of the vote and George Eichhorn with 34.7 percent. Steve Rathje was in third with more than 30 percent. If a candidate fails to secure 35 percent of the vote, the outcome will be determined at the June 14 state GOP convention.

"The race is so close that no clear winner will be determined tonight," Eichhorn said. "Both campaigns will want to see the results of the official canvass next week but one thing we know for sure is that Republicans will be unified against Harkin."

Reed's campaign watched closely as the returns from the final 18 precincts reported. Campaign insiders were hopeful those returns would be enough to put Reed over the 35 percent margin. According to media outlets, Reed appeared to pull that off by garnering 35.3 percent of the vote with every precinct but one reporting. That percentage would be enough to prevent the race from going to convention if it holds up through the official canvass.

-- By Chris Dorsey

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Tuesday, June 3, 2008

11:52 PM: Miller-Meeks wins in 2nd CD

Mariannette Miller-Meeks has been declared the winner of the Second District GOP congressional race. She beat Peter Teahen by approximately 100 votes.

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11:27 PM: 4th CD: Greenwald anxious to shift into general election mode

Becky Greenwald has worked on winning political campaigns before and Tuesday she got to experience a win as a candidate.

Greenwald emerged from a four-person primary to take the top spot in the 4th District Democratic congressional primary. With more than 70 percent of the vote in, Greenwald had 51 percent of the vote.

The closest to her was Kurt Meyer, who invested $100,000 of his own money in his campaign. Meyer called in the last half hour to congratulate Greenwald and concede.

"I am thrilled," she said with a joyous tone in her voice. "I didn't expect this. I am very happy. I had great supporters."

Greenwald has ties to Sen. Tom Harkin and his wife Ruth and worked on their campaigns in the past. She has been involved in presidential campaigns, and now she has a new title -- victorious primary candidate.

"It is surreal," she said. "It is a lot more fun. I am enjoying it."

The 4th District seat currently held by Republican Tom Latham is a targeted race for Democrats, and Greenwald plans to transition into general election mode. She is cooking steaks for retiring union workers Wednesday in Marshalltown.

"We are going to hit the ground running," Greenwald said.

-- By Chris Dorsey

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11:22 PM: Meyer concedes to Greenwald in 4th CD

Fourth District Congressional candidate Kurt Meyer has just called Becky Greenwald to concede in the Democratic primary.

-- By Chris Dorsey

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11:10 PM: Miller-Meeks ahead in 2nd CD race

The 2nd District congressional race shows Dr. Mariannette Miller-Meeks leading Peter Teahen by 600 votes, 45 to 41 percent with 92 percent of the vote in. Lee Harder has garnered 14 percent of the vote.

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11:09 PM: Reed and Eichhorn virtually tied

With 86 percent of the vote in, the GOP Senate race is staying tight.

Christopher Reed, who many thought was a dark horse in the race, is tied with former state Rep. George Eichhorn at 35 percent. Reed has 289 more votes than Eichhorn. Steve Rathje is at 30 percent.

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11:07 PM: Declared Statehouse winners so far ...

... according to various media outlets.

STATE SENATE

District 16 Republican primary: Dave McLaughlin
District 18 Republican primary: Joe Childers
District 20 Republican primary: Tim Kapucian

STATE HOUSE

District 13 Democratic primary: Sharon Steckman
District 27 Democratic primary: Charles Isenhart
District 41 Republican primary: Adam Vandall
District 42 Democratic primary: Geri Huser (i)
District 55 Republican primary: Jason Schultz
District 59 Democratic primary: Jerry Sullivan
District 59 Republican primary: Chris Hagenow
District 62 Republican primary: Chris Sanger
District 65 Democratic primary: Wayne Ford (i)
District 69 Republican primary: Erik Helland
District 70 Republican primary: Kevin Koester
District 71 Republican primary: Jim Van Engelenhoven (i)

Check the IowaPolitics.com Primary Scorecard for results from all the races

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10:55 PM: Boswell thanks supporters, says it's on to the general election

"We think we had a good win," Congressman Leonard Boswell said. "There is a lot that needs to be done for this country and we're going to be a part of that leadership."

Appearing in a packed room at the Hotel Fort Des Moines, the incumbent congressman said he owed all his success to the people he represents.

"I just want to thank you for your patience and being here tonight," Boswell said. "I never doubted your support, so I appreciate that very much."

During his brief remarks, which came around 10:30 p.m., Boswell said he'd just been told his campaign had received a call from Ed Fallon conceding the race and congratulating Boswell.

"So, we are going to go ahead and make the official announcement tonight that we're going to go on to run in the general election," he said. "We're going to get on and get at those things that are important to the development of Iowa and this country -- this wonderful country."


-- By Matt Clark

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10:48 PM: Boswell declared winner in 3rd CD

With 98 percent of the vote in, Leonard Boswell leads Ed Fallon by a 61 percent to 31 percent margin, leading him to be declared the winner.

District 3 results

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10:10 PM: With 70 percent in, Fallon trailing Boswell by double digits

With more than 70 percent of the vote in, Third District challenger Ed Fallon trails incumbent Congressman Leonard Boswell by 16 percent. Fallon addressed supporters at 10:05 p.m. at the Raccoon River Brewery.

"We had expected different results tonight," said Fallon, noting he was outspent 5-to-1 by Boswell. "The fact we fought with (a strong grassroots campaign) is an incredible expression where we are at in this country."

Fallon added if you take the PAC money out of what Boswell raised that the two candidates would be pretty even as far as cash raised.

-- By Chris Dorsey

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10:05 PM: Fallon supporters remain proud, hopeful

"I consider myself truly one of those grassroots supporters," Tim McEntde said. "It all comes down to how genuine he is. Ed is someone you can talk to. I support him instead of Boswell not because of his policies -- they both stand as Democrats on the issues -- I support Fallon as a matter of his personality."

Nearly 100 people packed the balcony level of the Raccoon River Brewery in downtown Des Moines to watch the results come in with their candidate. Even as Fallon trailed Boswell by double digits, supporters remained hopeful that their man would pull it out.

"I'm ready for a change, and Ed is it," said Helena Hadek. "He is light-years ahead on issues of environmental concern and transportation systems. He is a representative of real change away from the status quo in Washington, and I think that is why so many young people are coming out to work for him."

Indeed, the crowd at the Fallon event was markedly younger than the one down the street for Boswell.

"He's real, he's honest, and he always sticks to his values," said first-time voter, Rhiannon Helfer. "I'll support Boswell as a Democrat if he comes out on top, but I hope to see Ed as the nominee."

While Fallon's supporters have been known for their activism and powerful dedication to their candidate, at least some were willing to look to the future at a general election that didn't include Fallon.

"I think the majority of the people in this room would be satisfied with Boswell," McEntde said. "We'd just rather see a personality like Fallon in D.C."

-- By Matt Clark

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10:00 PM: U.S. Senate race stays close

With 37 percent of precincts reporting, Christopher Reed holds a narrow lead in the GOP U.S. Senate primary.

Reed's at 36 percent, compared to 34 percent for George Eichhorn and 30 percent for Steve Rathje.

Primary election scorecard

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9:54 PM: Incumbent Ford holds on to seat

With 93 percent of the vote being reported, incumbent Rep. Wayne Ford, D-Des Moines, appears to have held on to his District 65 seat in the Iowa House. He faced a challenge from Tyler Reedy and Charles Hoffman.

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9:40 PM: Obama speech drawing attention of Boswell partiers

Congressman Leonard Boswell's party is starting to fill up as half the room is monitoring election results and the other half is watching Sen. Barack Obama's speech in St. Paul.

"I have been voting for Boswell for years," said Maggie Wittorf of Des Moines. "I trust him more than I do any elected official. I respect Ed Fallon and feel he has solid ideas, but I have been able to trust Boswell for years and I will continue to trust Boswell."

"I think re-electing Boswell is re-electing trustworthiness," said Hank Belhouse of Pella. "I don't think Ed Fallon is a bad guy, but I don't think he has what it takes to get the job done in Washington."

-- By Matt Clark

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9:33 PM: Helland declared winner in House District 69

Erik Helland has defeated Al Lorenzen by a 73 percent to 27 percent margin in House District 69.

Helland had outraised and outspent Lorenzen in the race. Helland has been on television in recent days raising questions about Lorenzen and his support from Democratic groups such as AFSCME.

WHO-TV election results

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9:00 PM: Polls close

Watch for results soon.

Primary election scorecard

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8:15 PM: Obama clinches Dem nomination

On the night of the Iowa primary, national news outlets are reporting that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has enough delegate support to be the presumptive nominee of the Democratic party.

Obama scored a victory in the leadoff Iowa caucus, which gave an early boost on the path to securing the nomination. Obama returned to Iowa last month, and officials from both parties agree Iowa will be a key state in November.

Iowans are not voting for presidential candidates in today's primary election.

-- By Chris Dorsey

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7:51 PM: Campaigns plan primary-night parties

Campaigns plan primary-night parties

When the vote totals come in tonight, several candidates are planning parties to thank supporters. Here are the candidates who responded to an IowaPolitics.com request for information:

U.S. SENATE

Christopher Reed
Longbranch Hotel
90 Twixt Town Rd NE
Cedar Rapids
6 p.m.

U.S. HOUSE

DISTRICT 2

Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Hotel Ottumwa
Ottumwa
6:30 pm

Peter Teahen
Long Branch Hotel
Cedar Rapids
7 pm

DISTRICT 3

Leonard Boswell
Hotel Fort Des Moines
Des Moines
8:30 p.m.

Ed Fallon
Raccoon River Brew Pub
200 10th St. in downtown Des Moines
9 p.m.

DISTRICT 4

Becky Greenwald
Hotel Fort Des Moines
8:30 p.m.

William J. Meyers
The Colorado Bar & Grill
S. Marshall Street
Boone
8 p.m.

Kevin Miskell
Campaign headquarters
Ames

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6:43 PM: Overshadowed

No matter what happens here tonight, two of Iowa's neighboring states look like they'll be drawing national attention from Iowa's primary results.

-- South Dakota's results will be released at 8 p.m. and the delegates that presumptive Dem nominee Barack Obama wins there will inch him closer to numerically clinching the nomination.

-- In Minnesota, Obama is visiting St. Paul to deliver what most expect to be his primary victory speech. He's delivering it at the Xcel Energy Center, the site of this year's national Republican convention.

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5:13 PM: Mauro thinks voter turnout could exceed 20 percent

Voter turnout remains low, but Secretary of State Michael Mauro thinks the final numbers will exceed his 12 to 15 percent prediction. Mauro said 20 percent voter turnout could be a reality, but noted it is still too early to tell. The polls close at 9 p.m.

Today's primary marks the first for the new same-day voter registration policy. So far so good, said the Secretary of State's office.

"We have also have not heard of any problems with same day voter registration from anywhere around the state," a spokesperson in the SOS office said this afternoon.

-- By Chris Dorsey, IowaPolitics.com

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4:46 PM: 3rd CD: Fallon promotes the buddy system

Third Congressional District challenger Ed Fallon is hopeful his grassroots organizing will result in votes.

"Fallon has really been pushing the whole 'bring a friend or neighbor to the polls' routine because he knows that's his main opportunity to increase votes," an Iowa Democratic Party insider said. "He knows he isn't going to attract that many entrenched Democrats who are perfectly content with voting for Boswell as they always have in the past.  Fallon is hoping that the really progressive activists that are drawn to him will bring friends of theirs to the polls and tell them to vote for Fallon."

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4:40 PM: 3rd CD: Sticking with what they know

Congressman Leonard Boswell and his campaign also have been focusing on get-out-the-vote efforts since winter. There is a general feeling those traditional voters will cast ballots as they always have for Boswell.

"Boswell will have a lot of people vote for him because that is what they have done in the past," a Democratic insider said. "Fallon has a more robust following of people who will vote for him because they find him inspiring, or someone they know told them to vote for him.  The more people dragged to the polls by excited voters, the better Fallon does."

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3:45 PM: U.S. Senate: Outcome of GOP Senate primary remains a toss-up

Republicans say they are hungry to dethrone Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, and the words "coin toss" keep being mentioned as a description for the GOP primary between George Eichhorn, Steve Rathje and Christopher Reed.

"Between the three of them, no one has been able to raise a ton of money," a Republican insider said. "There may not even be a winner after tonight, which would make it all the more difficult to get people excited about one of them well in advance of the general election.  They all want to take Harkin down, but none of them have been able to convince a wide enough audience that they can do it - at least not yet."

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3:25 PM: 4th CD: Insiders call Miskell "dark horse" in 4th District race

In the 4th District congressional race, Kurt Meyer has spent more money, Becky Greenwald has distributed more direct mail pieces to targeted voters, and Democratic insiders call Kevin Miskell the darkhorse in the race.

A low turnout benefits Greenwald, a Democratic source said this afternoon. The low turnout and the potential confusion between similar candidate names (Kurt Meyer and William Meyers) could also help Greenwald, the source added.

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3:02 PM: 2nd CD: Video critical of Teahen circulates on primary day

Second District GOP candidates Peter Teahen and Mariannette Miller-Meeks continue to contact voters and encourage them to hit the polls.

Opponents of Teahen put together a You Tube video to distribute to Iowa voters challenging Teahen's credibility. The video takes much of the same information put forth by a former colleague of Teahen's and was distributed today. The video challenges Teahen on credentials he listed on his resume.

Teahen has said David Tredrea, a former British acquaintance from Darfur, is upset with him about something that happened while in Darfur, and the Brit had threated his life overseas and recently sent an e-mail threatening to ruin his reputation.

"I feel David is a threat to my life and my family," the Republican candidate said. "I have told people close to me I feel more threatened by him than any rebel in Darfur. This is a man with emotional problems. I have four daughters; I don't trust this guy."

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1:52 PM: Light turnout reported so far

Early reports from Johnson and Polk counties are showing very light primary turnout as of 10 a.m. Only 1 percent of the registered voters had cast ballots in Johnson County, and Polk County was mirroring the same results.

Democratic insiders said low turnout could alter the Third District primary race between Congressman Leonard Boswell and challenger Ed Fallon. Sources said in weeks leading up to the primary a low turnout could cause Fallon to give Boswell a strong challenge.

Secretary of State Michael Mauro has predicted turnout of between 12 and 15 percent.

Other turnout reports:
- Turnout for primaries at historic low

- Morning voter turnout low

- Linn County turnout begins slow in city, up in rural areas

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11:06 AM: Statehouse: Party insiders say incumbents look safe in primary

Democratic and Republican insiders say they feel the small number of legislative incumbents being challenged will be safe when the final vote is counted. In past election cycles, statehouse incumbents have fallen in their primary challenge, but sources predict that won't happen in 2008.

Here's a look at some of today's top legislative primaries:

*One Republican, Rep. Jim Van Engelenhoven of Pella, faces a primary opponent in Marc Held for his District 71 seat.

"I expect our incumbent will hold that seat," a Republican source said.

*Rep. Wayne Ford, D-Des Moines, has two challengers for his House District 65 seat -- Charles Hoffman and Tyler Reedy.  Rep. Deborah Berry, D-Waterloo, is being challenged in the primary by Waterloo's Don Shatzer for her District 22 seat. The third Democrat facing a primary opponent is Rep. Geri Huser, D-Altoona. Matt Ballard of Altoona is making a bid for Huser's District 42 seat.

Ballard is a strong proponent of fair share, which is an issue that failed to pass the House in the past General Assembly. However, insiders say Huser is respected in the district and votes for her constituents.

*State Rep. Walt Tomenga, R-Johnston, is retiring and two Republicans want his seat. Democrats haven't filed a candidate in the race so the winner of the June 3 primary could represent the district.

Tomenga is backing former University of Iowa basketball player and Drake hoops analyst Al Lorenzen of Granger. Lorenzen's opponent is Erik Helland. Helland worked on presumptive GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain's campaign last year. He is being backed by Iowans for Tax Relief and just earned the endorsement from the Iowa Right to Life organization.

Helland has been running ads on television and radio challenging Lorenzen's Republican values. One of Lorenzen's supporters is AFSCME. Insiders say Lorenzen has name ID, but Helland has outcampaigned the former hoops star since entering the race.

*There are two primary elections today for retiring Sen. Jeff Angelo's seat. It is a seat Democrats are hoping to build to their majority, and Republicans add it isn't a district they are ready to turn over quite yet.

Democrats seeking the seat are Kevin Wynn, a county supervisor and insurance agency owner from Corning; Ruth Smith, a physical therapist and Graceland University instructor from Lamoni and Matthew Brown of Thayer. On the Republican side of the aisle, Clarke County Treasurer Kim Reynolds faces Jim Parker of Villisca.

Sources say they feel Reynolds may have the edge going into today on the Republican side. On the Democratic ticket, Steve Waterman, who ran against Angelo in 2004, has endorsed Smith.

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Sunday, June 1, 2008

4:26 PM: U.S. Senate: Immigration a hot topic in GOP Senate debate

Republicans George Eichhorn and Christopher Reed squared off Friday night in a debate days before the primary that will determine who their party's nominee will be against Senator Tom Harkin.

Polk County Republican Party Chairman Ted Sporer noted that all three of the Republican candidates were asked to participate, but only Eichorn and Reed accepted the invitation. Fellow Republican primary hopeful Steve Rathje did not appear at the event.

The evening began with moderator Dave Price of WHO-TV asking the candidates what they would do to stem the flow of illegal immigrants through the nation's borders.

"Clearly our immigration policy is broken," Eichhorn said. "We have not committed the resources to protect our border and also to handle people when we find out they are illegal and in America."

Reed explained his view that policies are not flawed, but rather are not being enforced thoroughly enough.

"We have the laws in place -- we just need as a country to stand up and enforce those laws," Reed said. "We have the funding to build a fence. What we need to do is build a fence, fortify it, and man it. We need to get the illegal immigrants that are here and send them back to the country they came from, treating them like the law-breakers that they are."

Acknowledging it would take a considerable amount of money to implement the system he envisioned, Reed said, "I would argue that it's far more expensive to let them stay here," in reference to state and national government expenditures related to the education and health care costs attributed to illegal immigrants.

The issue of immigration continued to be a matter of discussion as talk turned to English being officially declared the national language.

"We have a common culture and history that says English is our official language," Eichhorn said. "Clearly it is the language of success and advancement in economics and in any position that you want to take. I think that it is important to recognize that distinction and reinforce it."

Reed said he supports government documents being printed only in English and called for individuals that come to the United States legally to better assimilate themselves into American culture. He also took to task the idea that the U.S. labor force would be crippled without illegal workers.

"The argument that our country cannot survive without illegal immigrants -- I believe that was the same argument that the South used for slavery," Reed said. "They used that statement until Eli Whitney came along and proved that innovation will take care of the problem."

Read more on the debate

-- By Matt Clark, IowaPolitics.com

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Saturday, May 31, 2008

4:32 PM: Mauro predicts 12-15 percent turnout

Secretary of State Michael Mauro is predicting Tuesday's primary turnout to be between 12 and 15 percent. The polls open at 7 a.m. Mauro announced there are more than two million registered voters in Iowa: 704,060 Democrats, 613,499 GOP and 761,000 no party voters. To vote Tuesday, independent voters must declare a party.

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Friday, May 30, 2008

4:43 PM: U.S. Senate: Lincoln Dinner guests see wide-open primary

The general feeling at Friday's Republican Party of Iowa Lincoln Day Dinner is that Tuesday's GOP Senate primary race is up for grabs.

More than 500 Iowa Republicans poured into the downtown Embassy Suites to talk politics with friends, lawmakers and prospective candidates. Among the discussions at the reception, prior to the event, was the unpredictable Senate primary featuring George Eichhorn, Christopher Reed and Steve Rathje.

"This campaign is not about me, the incumbent or primary," Rathje said in his address. "This campaign is about our conscience, our morals, our beliefs and about a clear vision for the future of America."

Rathje stressed he is committed to education, but at a state level, "where it belongs." Rathje has logged 200,000 miles on his vehicle in visiting all 99 counties in the past three years.

"This campaign has been one of dedication and commitment," Rathje said.

Eichhorn used Harkin's own words in his address at the dinner. Harkin has said change is needed in Washington, and Eichhorn said Friday he couldn't agree more and that change starts with defeating the Democrat in November.

"I am proud to have a common sense, conservative voting record," Eichhorn said. "I fought day in and day out for Republican values for six years" in the Iowa House.

Eichhorn talked about receiving more than 40 endorsements of key GOP lawmakers and Republican officials.

"They believe I am the best candidate and can defeat Tom. Harkin in November," he said.

Despite the energizing speeches, the outcome is a mystery as the primary nears.

"It is anybody's race," said a Cedar Rapids Republican. "None of them seem to have a distinct advantage."

Many project a low turnout, and a western Iowa voters predicts that will benefit Rathje.

"He has been the race longer, and is from the Cedar Rapids area where turnout will be heavier," due to the 2nd Congressional District primary, the western Iowa voter said.

A Des Moines Republican acknowledges Eichhorn may have the best name ID, but noted Reed is strong on the issues and could aid in sending the race to convention.

-- By AUTHOR, IowaPolitics.com

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4:24 PM: 3rd CD: Low primary turnout could help Fallon

A handful of Democratic operatives not involved with the 3rd District primary agree that challenger Ed Fallon faces long odds of defeating long-time incumbent U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell. However, one well-respected Democrat did paint a picture where Fallon could cause Boswell headaches.

A low turnout on primary night would be very advantageous to Fallon, the operative said.

"He has a hardcore base of support who will support him for whatever office he seeks," the operative noted. "Fallon's old legislative district and neighboring districts and Polk County voters will support him. Ed has to hope no one in the rural districts turns out."

The bottom line when the final vote is tallied is likely to be something like a 55 percent to 45 percent Boswell advantage, the operative said.

Another Democratic operative from Des Moines agrees with the previous assessment of 55-45 margin, and said the rural vote will be the key.

"Boswell has a long relationship with the rural districts," the Des Moines Democrat said.

One former Democratic presidential candidate campaign worker said the Boswell camp never took Fallon seriously.

"The polls have always shown him down, he's never raised a ton of money, and his grassroots organizing -- while commendable -- has never taken off into a full-blown movement," the caucus staffer said. "For him to win, I think Fallon would have had to do something really big, really sensational.  It's never happened.  It has been too easy for Boswell to simply ignore Fallon."

A Democratic source with past campaign experience, said on primary night the final tally will show Boswell with a 52-48 margin. The source added Fallon could put up a fight because of his strong showing in the 2006 gubernatorial primary. Fallon won district in his Democratic gubernatorial primary.

A Democratic Party activist said Boswell will likely win, but it is hard to ignore what Fallon brings to the table.

"I think Fallon is very appealing to the wing of the party that identifies itself as progressive," the activist said. "There are plenty of Democrats who are happy to vote for a Fallon even with his little schisms from the party in past.  The same ones who are not bothered by him breaking ranks with the party are bothered by Boswell's conservative voting record and want to see a more liberal representative.

"Boswell has trouble attracting the majority of voters that simply identify as 'Democrats' and not particularly liberal. They are the ones that feel somehow uncomfortable with a candidate that isn't more entrenched in the party and safely moderate.  You still see too many people rolling their eyes at Fallon riding a bike around town for him to beat an incumbent Democrat."

-- By Chris Dorsey, IowaPolitics.com

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Thursday, May 29, 2008

4:22 PM: 2nd CD: National GOP could target Loebsack after primary

With the June 3 primary just days away, Republicans are eying a GOP contest in the Democratic-leaning 2nd Congressional District as they consider adding freshman U.S. Rep. Dave Loebsack, D-Mt. Vernon, to their list of targeted House seats.

U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, D-Waterloo, serving his first term in the 1st District, holds a solid Democratic district and will probably get a pass from the Republican attack machine this election cycle. U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell, D-Des Moines, who national Dems expect to survive a primary challenge from 2006 gubernatorial candidate Ed Fallon also will most likely cruise to victory in the general election.

But Republicans believe that at least two of the candidates running in the 2nd District GOP primary have potential: Ophthalmologist and former state Medical Society President Mariannette Miller-Meeks and businessman Peter Teahen. Chaplain Lee Harder is also running in the GOP primary, but is not expected to win.

Depending on available funds and Loebsack's political strength (or lack thereof) come the fall, national Republicans could choose to attack the Democratic incumbent while simultaneously adding some muscle behind the GOP nominee.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, consistent with its policy under its current Chairman, U.S. Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, is not taking sides in Tuesday's primary, although NRCC officials worked early in the election cycle to recruit Miller-Meeks into the race.

According to one Republican strategist monitoring the 2nd District GOP primary, Teahen has put together the superior campaign organization between the two, but Miller-Meeks is a better fit for the district. In other words: Some Republicans believe Miller-Meeks has a better chance of beating Loebsack than does Teahen.

-- By David Drucker, for IowaPolitics.com

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Thursday, May 1, 2008

8:39 PM: 2nd CD: Miller-Meeks, Teahen make closing arguments to Lincoln Dinner crowd

Ottumwa opthalmologist Dr. Mariannette Miller-Meeks has overcome a double-digit deficit in her 2nd District GOP congressional primary bid. However, at Friday night's Lincoln Day Dinner, she still referred to herself as the underdog.

Miller-Meeks outraised her chief rival, Cedar Rapids businessman Peter Teahen, in the latest reporting period, which she called a necessary part of clawing back into the race.

"You work harder when you are the underdog," she said.

She received an enthusiastic response as she dialed up the crowd toward the end of her speech. She stressed the need for Republicans to be more forward-thinking in Congress and in Iowa, and referenced that need as she emphasized her desire to be the first woman elected to Congress from Iowa.

"I am not a career politician, and that is one reason I will win this seat in the primary," Miller-Meeks said. "I am an opthalmologist, and it is my job to help people see better. It does not take glasses to see Congress is out of touch with real Americans."

She referenced recent hearings in Congress on steroid use in baseball as an example of not focusing on the issues.

Teahen called upon Congress and the Republican elected to beat incumbent Congressman Dave Loebsack to lead Washington, D.C., in a new direction. He said Loebsack has represented House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's interests more than those of his constituents in the 2nd District.

"Congress has failed to lead us for too long," Teahen said. "The government hasn't failed us, it is the elected officials. This year we have seen record turnout in caucuses and primaries, that shows we are tired of how we have been treated. We deserve better; our families deserve better."

The funeral home director and Red Cross spokesman said he wants to be an elected official who leads, and not leave the tough decisions in the hands of judges. He also stressed the need for the country to feel safe and protect itself from terrorists.

"I want to turn this country around and make people feel safe again," Teahen said.

See the full story

-- By Chris Dorsey, IowaPolitics.com

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Lynn Campbell, bureau chief
Mike Schramm, news editor
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Andrew Duffelmeyer, reporting intern
Chris Dorsey, correspondent


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